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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 60234 amid a retreat in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Improved risk sentiment weighed on bullion after the bill to raise debt limit and cap government spending in the U.S. was passed by a wide margin, days before the world's biggest economy is due to start defaulting on its debt. The downside in gold prices remained capped after Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker as well as Fed Governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson signaled willingness to skip raising rates next month to assess incoming data. Swiss gold exports fell to their lowest in ten months in April as shipments to India, China and Turkey shrank, Swiss customs data showed. The decline coincided with a period of very high bullion prices, which tend to suppress consumer demand, particularly in Asia. Turkey has also imposed some restrictions on gold imports after a devastating earthquake in February. Swiss gold exports to mainland China and India in April were the lowest since January, shipments to Hong Kong were the lowest since November and exports to Turkey were the lowest since April last year, the customs data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.68% to settle at 15028 while prices are up 36 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59821 and below same could see a test of 59407 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60513, a move above could see prices testing 60791.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59407-60791.
* Gold prices steadied amid a retreat in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
* The bill to raise debt limit and cap government spending in the U.S. was passed by a wide margin
* Fed’s Harker signaled willingness to skip raising rates next month to assess incoming data.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.68% at 72594 as fresh data for initial jobless claims and the ADP report continued to point to a tight labour market, raising further bets interest rates will need to stay higher for longer. However, remarks from some Fed officials suggested the Fed could pause rate hikes this month. Around 71% of investors continue to expect borrowing costs to be left steady. Meanwhile, traders welcomed the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on the House of Representatives. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 48.4 in May of 2023 from a preliminary of 48.5, pointing to the biggest decline in the health of the manufacturing sector for three months. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 46.9 in May of 2023 from 47.1 in April, compared to forecasts of 47. The reading pointed to a seventh consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, as companies "manage outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.66% to settle at 14048 while prices are up 492 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71616 and below same could see a test of 70639 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 73135, a move above could see prices testing 73677.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70639-73677.
* Silver gains as traders reassessed the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
* However, remarks from some Fed officials suggested the Fed could pause rate hikes this month.
* The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 46.9 in May of 2023 from 47.1 in April

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.43% at 5828 supported by a weaker dollar and market relief as the US is set to suspend its debt ceiling until 2025. OPEC and its allies are unlikely to deepen supply cuts at their ministerial meeting on Sunday despite a fall in oil prices toward $70 per barrel. OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, pumps around 40% of the world's crude and supplies around 60% of the oil export market, meaning its policy decisions can have a major price impact. U.S. field production of crude oil rose in March to 12.696 million barrels per day, the highest since March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic began to decimate global energy demand, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. product supplied of crude and petroleum products rose to 20.449 million bpd, the highest since November 2022, EIA data showed. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in March fell by 61,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 206,000 bpd, according to data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.05% to settle at 14674 while prices are up 138 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5657 and below same could see a test of 5487 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5929, a move above could see prices testing 6031.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5487-6031.
* Crude oil gains as the US is set to suspend its debt ceiling until 2025.
* OPEC+ unlikely to deepen supply cuts at June 4 meeting
* US crude output rises in March to highest since March 2020 – EIA

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.26% at 180 as record domestic output and increased gas exports from Canada more than offset high exports to Mexico and expectations of warmer weather. Gas output in the US reached a record high in May, while imports from Canada and exports to Mexico also rose. Weather forecasts indicate mostly normal conditions, with an expected increase in gas demand as temperatures rise. Gas flows to major LNG export plants decreased due to maintenance, but the previous month's flows exceeded the plants' capacity. Meanwhile, US utilities added more gas to storage than anticipated last week, as mild weather limited demand. US utilities added 110 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 26, 2023, slightly more than market expectations of a 106 bcf increase as mild weather limited demand for the fuel for both heating and cooling. That compared with an increase of 82 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 101 bcf. Last week's increase brought stockpiles to 2.446 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 557 bcf higher than last year and 349 bcf above the five-year average of 2.097 bcf. At 2.33446 tcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 35.22% to settle at 49102 while prices are down -10 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 176 and below same could see a test of 172 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 186.6, a move above could see prices testing 193.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 172-193.2.
* Natural gas fell on record domestic output and increased gas exports from Canada
* Gas output in the US reached a record high in May
* US utilities added 110 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 26, 2023


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.93% at 715.9 supported by unexpected growth in factory activity in China and a vote of approval from the U.S. House of Representatives to suspend the debt ceiling. Driven by improved production and demand in China, the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May, marking a return to growth, compared with a contraction in activity seen in the official PMI. ING expects copper prices to remain volatile in the coming days, reacting to any policy change in China, and to average $8,500 per tonne in 2023. While copper inventories in LME-warehouses almost doubled to 100,000 tonnes in the last six weeks, around 10,000 tonnes was earmarked for delivery in recent days. Copper output in Chile, fell 1.1% year-on-year in April to 417,279 tonnes, the country's INE statistics agency said. The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China was down to 54.5 in May 2023 from 56.4 a month earlier. While pointing to the fifth straight month of expansion in services activity following the removal of strict pandemic curbs by Beijing late last year, the latest result was the softest pace since January. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.55% to settle at 6337 while prices are up 6.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 712.1 and below same could see a test of 708.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 719, a move above could see prices testing 721.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 708.1-721.9.
* Copper gains supported by unexpected growth in factory activity in China
* Support also seen after vote of approval from the U.S. House of Representatives to suspend the debt ceiling.
* ING expects copper prices to remain volatile in the coming days, reacting to any policy change in China

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 207.2 as China posted a surprising growth in factory activities, boosting sentiment and hope for better demand for metals. China's factory activity unexpectedly swung to growth in May from decline, a private sector survey showed, driven by improved production and demand, helping struggling firms that have been hit by slumping profits. In the zinc market, LME on-warrant stocks fell to 78,650 tonnes after cancellation of warrants to take delivery of 3,175 tonnes from LME-registered warehouses in Singapore. The total LME inventories of zinc are at a one-year peak following growth since May 23, indicating surpluses of the metal used to galvanise steel. Confidence on the LME market about the availability of the metal for speedy delivery pushed the discount for the cash contract over the three-month zinc contract to $18.75 a tonne as of the market close, its deepest since mid-March, 2022. The global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tonnes in March, from a surplus of 22,800 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first three months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 49,000 tonnes, versus a surplus of 116,000 tonnes in the same period of 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.1% to settle at 3839 while prices are up 1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 205.6 and below same could see a test of 203.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.2, a move above could see prices testing 211.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 203.9-211.1.
* Zinc gains as China posted a surprising growth in factory activities
* In the zinc market, LME on-warrant stocks fell to 78,650 tonnes.
* The total LME inventories of zinc are at a one-year peak following growth since May 23, indicating surpluses.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 208.5 as ingot social inventories in China continued to fall. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.9 in May 2023 from 49.5 in the prior month. Output rose the most in 11 months, new order growth was at its highest in two years, and foreign sales continued to increase. Meantime, buying activity expanded the least in four months; while employment fell at the steepest pace since February 2020, with backlogs falling slightly for the first time in five months. Delivery times got even shorter as suppliers maintained sufficient stocks. The final reading of the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in May was 44.8, compared to the expected 44.6 and the previous reading of 44.6. The final reading of German manufacturing PMI in May was 43.2, higher than the expected 42.9 and the previous reading of 42.9. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 48.4 in May of 2023 from a preliminary of 48.5, pointing to the biggest decline in the health of the manufacturing sector for three months. The drop was driven by a solid contraction in new orders amid muted demand conditions. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.63% to settle at 2662 while prices are up 0.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.7 and below same could see a test of 206.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.2, a move above could see prices testing 209.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.9-209.9.
* Aluminium gains as ingot social inventories in China continued to fall.
* China manufacturing unexpectedly grows: Caixin
* The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 48.4 in May of 2023 from a preliminary of 48.5

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 958.8 on better sowing conditions in UP and Bihar and weak export demand. The recent period of rain in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has been beneficial to planting efforts. The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-Mar 2023, dropped by 10.39 percent to 2,430.49 tonnes as compared to 2,712.39 tonnes exported during Apr-Mar 2022. In March 2023 around 202.95 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 210.78 tonnes in February 2023 showing a drop of 3.71%. In March 2023 around 202.95 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 218.78 tonnes in March 2022 showing a drop of 7.24%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11 Rupees to end at 1112.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.05% to settle at 596 while prices are down -0.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 955.9 and below same could see a test of 953.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962.7, a move above could see prices testing 966.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953.1-966.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11 Rupees to end at 1112.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil dropped on better sowing and weak export demand.
* The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.91% at 7742 on profit booking in expectation of rise in domestic supplies. Traders are also showing lesser interest at prevailing price levels and avoiding bulk buying in expectation of fall in prices. Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce. Losses in prices are looking limited due to weaker production prospects supported by delayed monsoon forecast. India Meteorological Department projected onset of monsoon is likely to be delayed by three days. The southwest monsoon, which normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, is likely to arrive on June 4. Turmeric exports during Apr-Mar 2023, rose by 11.34 percent at 170,085.36 tonnes as compared to 152,757.59 tonnes exported during Apr- Mar 2022. In March 2023 around 18,810.47 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,806.30 tonnes in February 2023 showing a rise of 27.04%. In March 2023 around 18,810.47 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 15,740.36 tonnes in March 2022 showing a rise of 19.50%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7392.9 Rupees dropped -64.3 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.44% to settle at 10905 while prices are down -232 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7604 and below same could see a test of 7468 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7928, a move above could see prices testing 8116.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7468-8116.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking in expectation of rise in domestic supplies.
* Traders are also showing lesser interest at prevailing price levels and avoiding bulk buying in expectation of fall in prices.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7392.9 Rupees dropped -64.3 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 44400 amid profit booking with increase in seasonal supply. Surging imports of jeera at cheaper rate is also keeping market sentiments down. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -209.15 Rupees to end at 45888.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.33% to settle at 6285 while prices are down -130 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 44050 and below same could see a test of 43695 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44860, a move above could see prices testing 45315.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 43695-45315.
* Jeera prices dropped amid profit booking with increase in seasonal supply
* However, downside seen limited on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -209.15 Rupees to end at 45888.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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