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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 51603 as traders digested the latest US Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes which indicated the need to keep raising interest rates to lower inflation, but did not provide specific guidance for future increases. US policymakers noted that future rate decisions would be based on incoming economic data, as well as assessments of how the economy was adapting to rising interest rates. Federal Reserve officials saw "little evidence" late last month that U.S. inflation pressures were easing, and steeled themselves to force the economy to slow down to control an ongoing surge in prices, according to the minutes of their July 26-27 policy meeting. "Participants agreed that there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding," the minutes said. "Participants emphasized that a slowing in aggregate demand would play an important role in reducing inflation pressures," the minutes said. Swiss exports of gold to China in July rose to their highest since December 2016, Swiss customs data showed, as demand in the world's largest bullion market improved. Switzerland shipped 80.1 tonnes of gold worth 4.4 billion Swiss francs ($4.6 billion) to mainland China, up from 32.5 tonnes in June and the second-highest monthly total in figures that stretch back to 2012. Retail consumers in markets like Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.77% to settled at 14787 while prices up 60 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51488 and below same could see a test of 51374 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51793, a move above could see prices testing 51984.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51374-51984.
* Gold prices steadied as traders digested the latest Fed policy meeting minutes which indicated the need to keep raising interest rates to lower inflation,
* Fed minutes show more rate hikes in the pipeline, but pace could slow
* Swiss gold exports to China surges
 

Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 56443 amid a firmer dollar while investors looked for more economic cues that could influence rate hikes. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week and data for the prior period was revised sharply down, suggesting labor market conditions remain tight, though higher interest rates are slowing momentum. The weekly unemployment claims report from the Labor Department added to strong industrial production in July and underlying retail sales growth in allaying fears that the economy was in recession. The claims report, the most timely data on the economy's health, could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to deliver another hefty rate hike next month. Minutes of the July 26-27 policy meeting published showed that though Fed officials "observed that the labor market remained strong," many also noted "there were some tentative signs of a softening outlook for the labor market." Existing home sales in the US declined 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million in July of 2022, the lowest since May of 2020 and below market expectations of 4.89 million. Sales declined for a sixth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.8% to settled at 16632 while prices down -472 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56121 and below same could see a test of 55798 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57031, a move above could see prices testing 57618.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 55798-57618.
* Silver dropped amid a firmer dollar while investors looked for more economic cues
* Weekly jobless claims fall 2,000 to 250,000
* Claims for week ended Aug. 6 revised sharply down

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.93% at 7269 as robust U.S. fuel consumption data and expected falls in Russian supply later in the year offset concerns that a possible recession in developed economies could undercut demand. A recent oil-price slide reflects fears of economic slowdown and masks physical market fundamentals, OPEC's new secretary general told, as he took a relatively optimistic view on the outlook for 2023 as the world tackles rising inflation. Haitham al-Ghais, who took office on Aug. 1, said oil demand was robust in the physical market, concern of Chinese economic slowdown was exaggerated and demand was likely to find support from jet fuel use as people travel more. Supporting prices, U.S. crude stocks fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 12, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed, against expectations for a 275,000-barrel drop, as exports hit 5 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest on record. Russia, however, forecasts rising output and exports until the end of 2025, an economy ministry document reviewed by Reuters showed, saying that revenue from energy exports will rise 38% this year, partly due to higher oil export volumes. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.84% to settled at 3835 while prices up 275 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7065 and below same could see a test of 6862 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7376, a move above could see prices testing 7484.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6862-7484.
* Crude oil prices rose amid robust U.S. fuel consumption data and expected falls in Russian supply later in the year
* OPEC Sec Gen says oil slide driven by fear, upbeat on 2023 outlook
 * U.S. crude stocks fall by over 7 million barrels
 

Nat.Gas 

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 742.4 on a smaller-than-expected storage build and as hot weather boosted spot prices to multi-year highs across the country. Also supporting prices, global gas was trading at record highs and the latest forecasts called for more U.S. demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast U.S. utilities added 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 12. Traders noted that was much lower than normal due to hot weather and a lack of wind power last week that forced power generators to burn lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 2.519 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 12.7% below the five-year average of 2.886 tcf for this time of the year. The small storage increase came despite the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 97.3 bcfd so far in August from a record 96.7 bcfd in July. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.99% to settled at 5902 while prices up 9.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 712.3 and below same could see a test of 682.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 770.2, a move above could see prices testing 798.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 682.2-798.
* Natural gas rose on a smaller-than-expected storage build and as hot weather boosted spot prices to multi-year highs across the country.
* Also supporting prices, global gas was trading at record highs and the latest forecasts called for more U.S. demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* EIA forecast U.S. utilities added 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug.
 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.44% at 670.75 as hopes for solid demand in China offset fears about the pace of interest rate rises and slowing economic growth. U.S. and European central bank officials said inflation pressures were not easing, suggesting interest rates will continue to increase. But in China, the biggest metals consumer, the central bank is easing monetary policy, copper stockpiles are low and import premiums suggest demand is rising. Yangshan copper import premiums have risen to $102.50 a tonne, the highest since December and up from just $6.50 earlier this year. Data pointed to a 24% yearly decline in copper scrap production during July, as producers refrained from selling at unfavorable prices during the month. On top of that, Chinese copper cathode output for January-July missed expectations to mark a decrease of 0.4%. On the other hand, record-setting heat waves in regions of the world’s second largest economy caused power outages and led local governments to ration energy among factories in multiple industries. Also, profit warnings by Chinese property giants continue to spur concerns on the sector’s stability. US monthly retail sales for July came out at 0%, with an estimate of 0.1% and a previous value of 1%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.7% to settled at 4187 while prices up 9.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 661 and below same could see a test of 651.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 676.4, a move above could see prices testing 682.1.
 

Trading Ideas:

 * Copper trading range for the day is 651.3-682.1.
* Copper gains as hopes for solid demand in China offset fears about the pace of interest rate rises and slowing   economic growth.
* Yangshan copper import premiums have risen to $102.50 a tonne, the highest since December and up from just   $6.50 earlier this year.
* Chinese copper cathode output for January-July missed expectations to mark a decrease of 0.4%.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 314.7 as the refined zinc output in August is expected to rise MoM, while the consumption side was still poor accompanied by disappointing export orders. Closures were announced this week at a zinc smelter and an aluminium smelter in Europe due to sky-high energy prices. Citi forecast deficits in the roughly 14 million tonne a year market of 197,000 tonnes this year and 190,000 tonnes in 2023 and said prices should reach $3,800 within three months. Expectations of deeper production cuts in Europe, shortages and dwindling stocks after high energy costs forced Nyrstar to shut its zinc smelter in the Netherlands have bolstered zinc's price prospects. Higher prices of zinc, used to galvanise steel, mean higher costs for steel makers and for steel consumers in the auto, construction and infrastructure industries. Nyrstar's decision to close the Budel smelter drove zinc on the London Metal Exchange spike to $3,819 a tonne on Tuesday, the highest since June 9 and a 24% gain since mid-July. Zinc stocks in LME registered warehouses, at 75,000 tonnes, have plummeted by 75% since April due to draws to meet deficits. Cancelled warrants at 35% suggest another 26,450 tonnes is due to leave the system. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.53% to settled at 1215 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 310.9 and below same could see a test of 307 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 318.3, a move above could see prices testing 321.8.
 

Trading Ideas:

-* Zinc trading range for the day is 307-321.8.
* Zinc dropped as the refined zinc output in August is expected to rise MoM
* Closures were announced this week at a zinc smelter in Europe due to sky-high energy prices.
* Expectations of deeper production cuts in Europe, shortages and dwindling stocks after high energy costs forced   Nyrstar to shut its zinc smelter in the Netherlands

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 210.8 as aluminium production cuts were still on in Sichuan province, involving a capacity of nearly 500,000 mt. Overseas aluminium smelter Hydro also indicated production cuts. As such, market concerns on the supply side intensified. On the consumption side, however, the downstream sector were still poor amid sporadic pandemic outbreak and power cuts. China's aluminium imports in July slid 38.3% from a year earlier, government data showed, as domestic production rose to a record and overseas supplies tightened. The country brought in 192,581 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The fall in imports was partly attributed to a rise in domestic supply this year. China, the world's biggest metals producer and consumer, made a record 3.43 million tonnes of aluminium in July as smelters did not have to contend with the power restrictions imposed last year. The closure of an arbitrage window between the markets in Shanghai and London also led to a fall in imports. Total imports in the first seven months were 1.27 million tonnes, down 28.1% from the same period a year ago. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.46% to settled at 3369 while prices up 0.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.3 and below same could see a test of 207.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.2, a move above could see prices testing 213.4.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.6-213.4.
* Aluminium remained supported as aluminium production cuts were still on in Sichuan province, involving a capacity   of nearly 500,000 mt.
*  Overseas aluminium smelter Hydro also indicated production cuts. As such, market concerns on the supply side     intensified.
* China's July aluminium imports fall 38% on – year as domestic output jumps

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.84% at 973.5 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%.In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -21.5 Rupees to end at 1113.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.18% to settled at 1098 while prices down -8.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 964.9 and below same could see a test of 956.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 982.3, a move above could see prices testing 991.1.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956.3-991.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -21.5 Rupees to end at 1113.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes   exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 7362 on report of better sowing. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7509.45 Rupees dropped -15.25 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.2% to settled at 14950 while prices down -16 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7276 and below same could see a test of 7190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7446, a move above could see prices testing 7530.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7190-7530.
* Turmeric dropped amid profit booking on reports of better sowing.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May     2022  showing a rise of 8.13%

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7509.45 Rupees dropped -15.25 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 25395 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 31.65 Rupees to end at 24623.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.78% to settled at 9708 while prices up 170 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25150 and below same could see a test of 24900 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25565, a move above could see prices testing 25730.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24900-25730.
* Jeera prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y   basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 31.65 Rupees to end at 24623.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 50540 after a federal report cut forecasts for global and U.S. production. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.34% to 117.65 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 111.69 lakh hectares in 2021. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,528,354.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,240,765.00 hectares as of now. In Rajasthan, Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 7.99% with 647.1 thousand hectares as against 599.22 thousand hectares on the same day last year. However, crop has been damaged as excessive rains continue to hit parts of the Maharashtra State. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -140 Rupees to end at 47740 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.46% to settled at 976 while prices up 640 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 50230 and below same could see a test of 49920 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50870, a move above could see prices testing 51200.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 49920-51200.
*  Cotton rallied after a federal report cut forecasts for global and U.S. production.
* U.S. output forecast cut results in lower exports, mill use view
* Extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects- USDA
 * In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -140 Rupees to end at 47740 Rupees.

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