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Gold 
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 50361 as investors dialed back expectations for a bigger full percentage point rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis’s James Bullard signaled that they are on track to raise rates by 75 basis points for the second month in a row at the July 26-27 meeting, pushing back against speculations for an even more aggressive increase. A key survey also showed consumer inflation expectations softened in July, coming in at 2.8% over a five-year horizon from 3.1% in June. Meanwhile, gold just came off its fifth straight losing week, facing pressure from tightening monetary conditions and investors’ preference for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. India's plain gold jewellery exports to the United Arab Emirates jumped in May and June after the Gulf state allowed duty free imports from the south Asian country, a leading trade body said. The United Arab Emirates and India signed a broad trade and investment pact in February aiming at increasing annual trade between the two nations to $100 billion within five years. India's plain gold jewellery exports to UAE in May jumped 72% from a year ago to 10.48 billion rupees ($131.16 million), while in June the exports jumped 69% to 145.2 billion rupees, the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.56% to settled at 6168 while prices up 254 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50134 and below same could see a test of 49907 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50604, a move above could see prices testing 50847.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49907-50847.
* Gold rose as investors dialed back expectations for a bigger full percentage point rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
* Fed’s Bullard signaled that they are on track to raise rates by 75 basis points for the second month in a row at the July 26-27 meeting
* Survey showed, US consumer inflation expectations softened in July, coming in at 2.8% over a five-year horizon from 3.1% in June.

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 56091 against the backdrop of a weakening dollar as fears about a full-point Fed rate hike receded. The dollar has opened the week on the backfoot despite strong U.S. economic data released on Friday. Fears about inflation and the pace of rate hikes ebbed after the University of Michigan's survey showed inflation expectations easing to a one-year low. The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on Thursday, with economists expecting a 25-bps rate hike. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its ultra-loose policy in place at its July 20-21 meeting. This week's U.S. economic calendar is very light, with reports on housing starts and existing home sales likely to attract attention heading into next week's FOMC meeting. Policymakers including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, as well as regional Fed Presidents Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, James Bullard, and Raphael Bostic, suggested that a 75 basis-point hike would be appropriate for this month. Fed officials signalled that they would stick to a 75-bp rate increase at their July 26-27 meeting. Focus also remains on the European Central Bank's meeting later this week where it is expected to raise rates by 25 bps. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.67% to settled at 21269 while prices up 504 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55848 and below same could see a test of 55605 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56352, a move above could see prices testing 56613.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55605-56613.
* Silver prices inched higher against the backdrop of a weakening dollar as fears about a full-point Fed rate hike receded.
* Fears about inflation and the pace of rate hikes ebbed after the University of Michigan's survey showed inflation expectations easing to a one-year low.
* The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on Thursday, with economists expecting a 25-bps rate hike.

Crude oil 
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 4.27% at 7918 buoyed by reports that an increase in Saudi oil output is unlikely for now, and amid uncertainty about OPEC ramping up production any significantly. According to the report released by Baker Hughes, oil rig count in the U.S. increased by four to 756 this week. Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer, potentially ratcheting up the continent's supply crunch. However, supplies remain tight. As expected, U.S. President Joe Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia failed to yield any pledge from the top OPEC producer to boost oil supply. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 12, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 15,479 contracts to 211,035 during the period. U.S. crude production and petroleum demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected crude production will rise to 11.91 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.77 million bpd in 2023 from 11.19 million bpd in 2021. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 66.37% to settled at 3369 while prices up 324 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7681 and below same could see a test of 7443 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8068, a move above could see prices testing 8217.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7443-8217.
* Crude oil prices rose sharply buoyed by reports that an increase in Saudi oil output is unlikely for now.
* U.S. crude production and petroleum demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. EIA said.
* According to the report released by Baker Hughes, oil rig count in the U.S. increased by four to 756 this week.

Natural gas 
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.47% at 597.1 on forecasts for hotter weather and more demand this week than previously expected. Extreme heat has already boosted power demand to record highs in several parts of the country, including Texas and other U.S. Central states, as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the weather. The gas price increase came even though output rose to near record highs and as the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas leaves more fuel in the United States for utilities to refill low storage. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG has said the facility could return around Oct. 22. Some analysts, however, expect the outage to last longer. Speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges to the most since March 2020, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would slide from 100.9 bcfd this week to 99.9 bcfd next week as extreme heat starts to ease in some parts of the country. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.48% to settled at 7064 while prices up 41.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 573.8 and below same could see a test of 550.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 612.4, a move above could see prices testing 627.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 550.5-627.7.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for hotter weather and more demand this week than previously expected.
* Extreme heat has already boosted power demand to record highs in several parts of the country, including Texas and other U.S. Central states
* Speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges to the most since March 2020

Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 2.36% at 630.95 after top consumer China sought to ease concerns over financial distress facing its property sector. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission urged banks to extend loans to qualified real estate projects and meet developers financing needs where reasonable, after a growing number of home buyers across China threatened to stop making mortgage payments for unfinished houses. Still, prices for the red metal remain more than 30% below their March peak as fears of a demand-sapping global recession continued to mount. An aggressive tightening from major central banks to rein on sky-high inflation has sparked concerns about a worldwide recession and China continues to battle Covid-19. China's June copper imports rose 15.5 % from a month ago to 537,698 tonnes, customs data showed, after demand picked up following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns that had hurt manufacturing activity. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in June from 49.6 in May, the first time it rose above the 50-point mark that separates contraction from growth since February. Imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, was 2.06 million tonnes in June, down 5.9% from 2.19 the previous month, according to the customs data. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.92% to settled at 4871 while prices up 14.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 620.3 and below same could see a test of 609.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 639.2, a move above could see prices testing 647.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 609.5-647.3.
* Copper edged up after top consumer China sought to ease concerns over financial distress facing its property sector.
* China's June copper imports rose 15.5 % from a month ago to 537,698 tonnes, customs data showed
* Imports of copper concentrate, was 2.06 million tonnes in June, down 5.9% from 2.19 the previous month.

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.21% at 275.7 as the central bank guided it higher amid tempered investor expectations about a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike this month. On the macro front, the University of Michigan report showed that consumer inflation expectations fell in July, with the preliminary one-year inflation expectation dropping to 5.2%, the lowest since February; the market lowered the expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in July, with market sentiment stabilising. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stepped up cash injections through open market operations, snapping a 10-day streak of a minimal CNY 3 billion ($444.61 million) of daily offering. The central bank injected CNY 12 billion via seven-day reverse repurchase agreement at a cost of 2.1%, a statement online showed. With CNY 3 billion of the short-term liquidity tool, the PBOC injected a net CNY 9 billion. China’s the central bank guided it higher amid tempered investor expectations about a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike this month. PBOC Governor Yi Gang pledged that the central bank will "increase implementation of prudent monetary policy" to support the real economy, which is facing downward pressure due to COVID-19 and external shocks. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.64% to settled at 1270 while prices up 5.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 272.2 and below same could see a test of 268.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 278.6, a move above could see prices testing 281.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 268.6-281.4.
* Zinc prices gained as the central bank guided it higher amid tempered investor expectations about a more aggressive Fed rate hike this month.
* China’s the central bank guided it higher amid tempered investor expectations about a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
* PBOC stepped up cash injections through open market operations, snapping a 10-day streak of a minimal CNY 3 billion of daily offering.

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.81% at 210.45 as the market expectations for the interest rate hike weakened, easing the pessimistic sentiment. China's aluminium imports in June fell 36.3% from the same month a year earlier, government data showed, as domestic production ramp-up and persistently weak demand continued to weigh on import appetite. The country brought in 187,362 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products -including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Aluminium imports into China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of the metal, totalled 1.08 million tonnes in the first six months this year, down 25.9% from the same period a year ago. Relaxed power restrictions this year have eased aluminium supply tensions that had been the key driving force behind price surges and cargo inflows in the previous year. On the macro front, US retail sales rose at a monthly rate of 1% in June, higher than the estimate of 0.8% and the previous reading of -0.3%. U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 last weeks, a new high from November last year, compared to 235,000 previously and 235,000 expected. China's Q2 GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year, with an estimate of 1.1% and the previous reading of 4.8%, showing that the pandemic impact is beyond expectations. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.99% to settled at 2434 while prices up 5.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.6 and below same could see a test of 202.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.6, a move above could see prices testing 216.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.5-216.5.
* Aluminium prices remained supported as the market expectations for the interest rate hike weakened, easing the pessimistic sentiment.
* China's June aluminium imports down 36.3% y/y
* Relaxed power restrictions this year have eased aluminium supply tensions that had been the key driving force behind price surges

Mentha oil 
Mentha oil yesterday settled flat at 1006 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 12.8 Rupees to end at 1126.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.42% to settled at 961 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 999.2 and below same could see a test of 992.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1009.9, a move above could see prices testing 1013.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 992.4-1013.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 12.8 Rupees to end at 1126.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha settled flat as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 170.22 in April 2022 showing a rise of 23.31%.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 7688 on profit booking amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices. However, downside seen limited as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Turmeric exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has improved by 4 percent at 1.78 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.72 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of March 2022 around 15,751.54 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,361.20 in March 2021 showing an increase of 22%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,282.53 in April 2021 showing an increase of 4%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8029.85 Rupees gained 2.85 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.58% to settled at 16545 while prices down -14 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7612 and below same could see a test of 7534 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7774, a move above could see prices testing 7858.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7534-7858.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices.
* However, downside seen limited as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses.
* In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8029.85 Rupees gained 2.85 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.53% at 23445 as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low. Big traders and stockiest have been holding to stocks anticipating further increase in prices. Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has declined by 32 percent at 2.17 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.86 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of April 2022 around 10,707.38 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 14,595.43 in March 2022 showing a decline of 27%. In view of the international situation of cumin seeds, all the countries of the whole world are not in a position to get cumin from a single country except India. Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought. Turkey has exited the international cumin market for the last 2 years. In Afghanistan, cumin has grown by 40 to 50% of the current year. Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival. China's demand for cumin is currently sporadic, with China buying 300 containers of Indian cumin in the month of June, the demand is very low at the moment. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 512.85 Rupees to end at 23010.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.49% to settled at 12297 while prices up 800 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23080 and below same could see a test of 22715 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23680, a move above could see prices testing 23915.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22715-23915.
* Jeera prices gained as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low.
* Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought.
* Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 512.85 Rupees to end at 23010.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 43040 after Reports of severe damage to crop due to heavy rains in Gujarat in the last 4 days, most of the sowings have failed. In Punjab, area under cotton cultivation dips to lowest since 2010, also Cotton crop in Punjab is on radar for second straight year as attack of whitefly, pink bollworm seen, as per the report. Spinning Mills Unit is setting up its plant, due to which cotton consumption is increasing continuously. China has decided to buy three to five lac tonnes of cotton from international markets for its state reserves. The U.S. 2022/23 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. At 2.4 million bales, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are now expected to be 1 million bales lower than in 2021/22. According to Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India, at least 10% higher sowing is expected compared to previous kharif season’s 12 million hectares. Looking at the current trend, cotton sowing in Maharashtra is expected to cross 4.2 million hectares. In Gujarat, it would be around 2.7 million hectares. The cotton acreage in north will be around 1.5 million hectares and the same for southern states is likely to remain at around 3.5-4.0 million hectare. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -30 Rupees to end at 41280 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.38% to settled at 1157 while prices up 600 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 42720 and below same could see a test of 42390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43360, a move above could see prices testing 43670.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 42390-43670.
* Cotton gains after reports of severe damage to crop due to heavy rains in Gujarat in the last 4 days, most of the sowings have failed.
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.44% to 102.8 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 96.58 lakh hectares in 2021.
* China has decided to buy three to five lac tonnes of cotton from international markets for its state reserves.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -30 Rupees to end at 41280 Rupees.

- www.kediaadvisory.com

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