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Nifty

Nifty opened as well as closed below its 5 DEMA level of 18680 which now holds as a key resistance level for the day. Its far awayfromits 5 Weeks EMA which is placed at 18460. Also the 20 DEMA is placed around 18440 which now becomes a key expected swing support zone.Its trend strength indicators again displayed diverging signals as RSI declined from its overbought reading above 75 towards64while ADX holding it self marginally above its 25 mark. Slippages below the same could be a confirmatory sign of loss in strengthintheindex.Since the immediate weekly support at 18670 (5 DEMA) is breached the next meaningful support to track nowstands at 18460below which the index could slip towards the crucial trend defining support level of 18360 below which momentumlongs as well aspositional longs should be exited. As observed on its daily scale the ongoing bullish wave from the base of 16747.70 (30thSeptember)can be easily defined as a classic 5-Wave bullish structure with its termination zone placed around 18810 to 19015.We havealreadywitnessed last Thursdays expiry closing at 18812 with its RSI reading above its 75-level confirming its overbought state. But areversal candlestick formation signal should be necessary to conclude its termination. Hence building fresh longs should be avoidedat thisjuncture & a pullback should be waited for fresh assessment of the immediate trend.Short term traders should remain cautiousasastrong evidence of a bearish reversal formation is mandatory to confirm the termination. While 18780 now stands as expectedhurdlefor the week.

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