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In continuation to our monthly Retail series, we are monitoring mobility and retail demand trends as we believe both these data sets have a lead-lag effect. Key takeaways from Sep’22 include: a) India’s mobility data continues to lead both on transit mobility and workplace mobility with offices, schools reaching normalcy. Global mobility data improved MoM post a short blip as key regions faced macro challenges (e.g. Europe, US – Charts 1-6); b) in domestic retail, PV sales were down ~4% MoM as key festive dates bunch up in October; 2W sales, too, fell ~5% MoM; c) on commercial side, 3W sales grew ~14% MoM with CV sales up ~7% MoM. Electric PV/2W held share at 1.3%/5.1%, respectively (Table 7).

Key observations

* India’s state-wise retail analysis indicates retail sales’ fell 3.3% MoM (up ~30% YoY on YTD basis). Consumer facing segments of PV and 2W continue to be steady. CV segment was up 6.5% MoM, and is gradually recovering MoM to reach Mar-Apr’22 highs as economic activity picks up with receding monsoon. Registrations for tractors witnessed 8.4% MoM improvement as Sep-Oct are seasonally strong months with harvest season beginning October onwards. In EV segment, volumes rose 3% MoM in 2W to reach an all-time high of ~52k units (Mar’22 highs at 50k units). PV EV sales to continue on an upward trajectory with 4.5% growth MoM, with new launches in the affordable EV segment to further lift sales in coming months.

* India, workplace mobility data, after witnessing many ebbs and flows, saw improvement in the second fortnight across all regions. Sep’22 data shows all regions were above normalcy with West and East leading the growth, while Delhi, Karnataka and Telangana witnessed gradual improvement. Overall, traffic on aggregate basis was up 31% YoY on workplace mobility and 25% YoY on transit mobility, with South being the most affected (Charts 7-10) region.

* Observations on OEM-wise YTD market share trends: 1) In PV segment, market share losses for Maruti Suzuki (268bps YoY till date in FY23 basis) continued, while M&M (up 115bps) and Tata Motors (up 237bps) were the beneficiaries led by their new product successes. 2) In 2W space, Hero Motocorp continues to lose market share for the third consecutive year to a decadal low of 31.8% in overall domestic 2Ws, while Bajaj Auto lost 188bps to reach sub-10% market share. 3) In EVs, Tata Motors’ share stood at 85% in PVs with MG Motors at ~9% share; Okinawa/Ola Electric led the 2W EV space at 8.3k/9.6k, respectively, at 35% combined share, taking market share from Hero Electric at ~16%; 4) tractor segment witnessed TAFE gaining share (up 64bps MoM) at the expense of John Deere (down 37bps MoM) (Tables 11-19) with M&M still maintaining its ~40% share YoY.

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