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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 53062 as the dollar eased, while reports of a tanker being hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman also boosted the safe-haven metal's appeal. Data showed U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in October, lifting hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve could slow rate hikes going forward. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic warned that he sees little evidence that inflation is easing while signaling that interest rates will have to rise further for the central bank to reach its goals. This hawkish view from Raphael Bostic contrasts sharply with remarks from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker that hinted at a less aggressive tightening. The market movement came on the heels of a softer-than-expected US PPI reading, with money markets now pricing an 85% chance of a 50 bps hike in December. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned investors against getting too optimistic over one inflation report, and said that the central bank “still got a ways to go” with interest rate hikes. A spike in domestic prices put off most physical gold consumers in India and prompted dealers to offer discounts for the first time in about a month, with higher rates playing spoilsport in China as well. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.58% to settle at 6454 while prices are up 317 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52936 and below same could see a test of 52810 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53194, a move above could see prices testing 53326.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52810-53326.
* Gold rose as the dollar eased, while reports of a tanker being hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman also boosted the safe-haven metal's appeal.
* Data showed U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in October, lifting hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve could slow rate hikes going forward.
* Fed’s Bostic warned that he sees little evidence that inflation is easing while signaling that interest rates will have to rise further.
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 61997 as dollar weakened, hovering around the 106 mark as investors continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its aggressive tightening campaign, with a softer-than-expected PPI reading reinforcing such a view. Several Fed policymakers, including vice Chair Lael Brainard and Governor Christopher Waller, acknowledged that the central bank might slow the rate hikes, saying it has already done a significant job taming inflation. Still, there has yet to be a consensus among the Fed members. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic warned that he sees little evidence that inflation is easing while signaling that interest rates will have to rise further for the central bank to reach its goals. Meanwhile, fears of a broader European conflict after a missile hit Polish territory and killed two civilians sparked some safe-haven demand and limited the dollar's downside. Money markets believe that the Fed will raise its target funds rate by 50bps in its December meeting, slowing from four consecutive 75bps rate hikes delivered since June. While bullion is commonly used to hedge against inflation, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost to hold non-interest-bearing assets, denting its appeal. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.02% to settle at 13865 while prices are up 407 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61500 and below same could see a test of 61002 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62723, a move above could see prices testing 63448.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61002-63448.
* Silver rose as dollar weakened, as investors continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its aggressive tightening campaign.
* Fears of a broader European conflict after a missile hit Polish territory sparked some safe-haven demand.
* Several Fed policymakers, acknowledged that the central bank might slow the rate hikes, saying it has already done a significant job taming inflation.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.56% at 6947 as Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted, prompting the reversal of earlier gains following an attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. The United States Navy's Fifth Fleet said it aware of an incident on Wednesday in the Gulf of Oman involving a commercial vessel. Oil supply to parts of Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline was temporarily suspended, according to oil pipeline operators in Hungary and Slovakia. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast demand growth to slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April, citing mounting economic challenges. Industry data showing a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles provided some support to oil prices. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 5.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 11, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Still, investors continued to fret about resurgent Covid outbreaks in top crude importer China which made the possibility of an economic reopening more uncertain and further clouded the outlook for demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.32% to settle at 3785 while prices are down -110 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6837 and below same could see a test of 6726 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7090, a move above could see prices testing 7232.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6726-7232.
* Crude oil prices fell as Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted
* Oil supply to parts of Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline was temporarily suspended
* China's COVID policy dims demand outlook
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.25% at 481.7 on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected, and on expectations Freeport LNG will delay the restart of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. A few LNG vessels have turned away from Freeport over the past few days on expectations the plant's restart will be delayed until December or later, according to ship tracking data from Refinitiv. Federal pipeline safety regulators released a heavily redacted consultant's report that blamed inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue for the June 8 explosion that shut the Freeport plant. Meanwhile, investors were monitoring the situation around the reopening of the Freeport LNG export plant. The plant had been set for a return to service this month but it looks like repair work and efforts to secure regulatory approvals are still ongoing, making more gas available for domestic use. Elsewhere, the latest EIA data showed US utilities added 79 bcf of gas to storage last week, below market expectations of an 84 bcf increase and compared with a rise of 15 bcf in the same week last year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 23.42% to settle at 8553 while prices are down -11.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 466.5 and below same could see a test of 451.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 499.7, a move above could see prices testing 517.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 451.2-517.6.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected
* The market remained hyper focused on unproven rumors that the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return to service until December.
* Freeport LNG has said repeatedly said the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, would return in Novemb

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 690.15 as weak Chinese economic data added to signs of low demand and ample supply, taking the heat out of a recent rally. However, downside seen limited hopes that China would abandon its zero-COVID policy and U.S. interest rate rises would slow, lifting economic growth and metals demand. But new home prices in China fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in October, according to data on Wednesday that underscored deepening contraction in the construction sector and followed weak manufacturing data. China is by far the biggest metals consumer and COVID-19 cases are rising there, raising fears of wider lockdowns that would hamper economic activity. Chinese copper import premiums have tumbled to $102.50 a tonne from $144.50 last week, suggesting lower demand for overseas metal. Supply also suddenly looks ample on the LME, where quickly delivered cash copper has flipped from a premium of more than $100 versus the metal for delivery in three months to a discount of almost $30. Workers of Chile's Escondida mine, the world's largest copper mine, decided to go on strike on Nov. 21 and 23 due to labor demands, their union said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.17% to settle at 5012 while prices are down -3.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 687.3 and below same could see a test of 684.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 694.2, a move above could see prices testing 698.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 684.3-698.1.
* Copper prices fell as weak Chinese economic data added to signs of low demand and ample supply
* However, downside seen limited hopes that China would abandon its zero-COVID policy and U.S. interest rate rises would slow.
* Chile's Escondida mine workers announce strike amid labor demands

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.18% at 272.45 amid demand uncertainty fuelled by rising COVID-19 cases in top metals consumer China, while geopolitical risks also weighed on sentiment. Markets were rattled as a deadly explosion in NATO member Poland, that Polish authorities said was caused by a Russian-made rocket, raised concerns the Ukraine conflict could spill over its borders. COVID-19 cases kept rising in some Chinese cities including its capital city Beijing and southern city Guangzhou. In total, 20,199 new COVID-19 infections were reported for Nov. 15, versus 17,909 cases a day earlier. China's new home prices fell at a faster pace in October as persistent COVID-19 curbs, a faltering economy and property woes weighed on demand, official data showed China's industrial production expanded 5.0% yoy in October 2022, less than market estimates of a 5.2% increase and slowing from a 6.3% growth in the prior month which was the fastest pace in seven months. China's retail trade unexpectedly declined by 0.5% year-on-year in October 2022, shifting from a 2.5% gain in the prior month and pointing to the first drop in five months, as consumption weakened due to the impact of COVID infections and strict restrictions. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.75% to settle at 2177 while prices are down -3.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 269.1 and below same could see a test of 265.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 277.5, a move above could see prices testing 282.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.6-282.4.
* Zinc prices dipped amid demand uncertainty fuelled by rising COVID-19 cases in top metals consumer China, while geopolitical risks also weighed
* China industrial output growth below forecasts
* China retail sales unexpectedly fall

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 208.45 as the production resumption and commissioning in Sichuan, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia was progressing smoothly. Aluminium production cuts in Henan reached 80,000 mt, and remained stable in the other regions. Daily aluminium production fell slightly. The spot inventory in mainstream markets in China was low due to delayed arrivals from places like Xinjiang, but is likely to improve with the pick-up of transportation efficiency. But the inventory will remain low in the short term. On the macro front, boosted by supporting real estate policies in China, unexpected fall in US October PPI, as well as falling US Dollar index, the market risk appetite improved. On the supply side, LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses because a substantial share of the market is still planning to buy the country's metal in 2023. China's primary aluminium production climbed 9.5% year-on-year in October, fuelled by growing exports and relaxed curbs on power consumption compared with last year. The country produced 3.45 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, an eighth straight monthly rise versus 2021 numbers as the industry recovers from electricity usage restrictions last year that triggered sharp declines in output from the world's top producer. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.17% to settle at 4111 while prices are down -1.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.3 and below same could see a test of 204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.1, a move above could see prices testing 213.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204-213.6.
* Aluminum dropped as the production resumption and commissioning in Sichuan, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia was progressing smoothly.
* Aluminium production cuts in Henan reached 80,000 mt, and remained stable in the other regions.
* LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 956.5 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 16.9 Rupees to end at 1123.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.17% to settle at 827 while prices are up 2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 951.4 and below same could see a test of 946.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 961.4, a move above could see prices testing 966.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 946.2-966.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 16.9 Rupees to end at 1123.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.64% at 7694 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7456.25 Rupees dropped -41.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.16% to settle at 9200 while prices are up 124 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7578 and below same could see a test of 7460 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7766, a move above could see prices testing 7836.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7460-7836.
* Turmeric prices gained as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7456.25 Rupees dropped -41.5 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 24690 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -18.65 Rupees to end at 24395.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.73% to settle at 6978 while prices are up 45 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24470 and below same could see a test of 24250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24850, a move above could see prices testing 25010.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24250-25010.
* Jeera gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -18.65 Rupees to end at 24395.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.49% at 33310 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 350 Rupees to end at 33390 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.04% to settle at 2017 while prices are up 490 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32850 and below same could see a test of 32390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33720, a move above could see prices testing 34130.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 32390-34130.
* Cotton prices gained as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 350 Rupees to end at 33390 Rupees.

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