IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 45418 as the dollar lost some ground and the yields on U.S. bonds dropped a bit. Data showing an increase in U.S. initial jobless claims also contributed gold's uptick. Investors were also weighing the impact of the massive infrastructure plan announced by President Joe Biden. Biden on Wednesday outlined a $2.3 trillion plan to reengineer the nation's infrastructure over the next eight years. "It's a once-in-a-generation investment in America," Biden said in a speech in Pittsburgh about his plan. India's gold imports in March surged 471% from a year earlier to a record 160 tonnes, a government source told, as a reduction in import taxes and a correction in prices from record highs drew retail buyers and jewellers. Higher imports by the world's second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices, which have corrected nearly 17% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020. The surge in imports could increase India's trade deficit and pressure the rupee. India imported a record 321 tonnes in the March quarter, up from 124 tonnes a year ago, the source said. In value terms, March imports surged to $8.4 billion from $1.23 billion a year ago. India's gold imports in April could fall below 100 tonnes as jewellers fear government could impose lockdown to arrest rising coronavirus infections. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.04% to settled at 12315 while prices up 483 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45052 and below same could see a test of 44687 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45641, a move above could see prices testing 45865.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 44687-45865.

* Gold settled higher as the dollar lost some ground and the yields on U.S. bonds dropped a bit.

* Data showing an increase in U.S. initial jobless claims also contributed gold's uptick.

* India's March gold imports surge 471% to a record 160 tonnes

 

Silver  

Silver yesterday settled up by 2% at 65089 on a retreat in the dollar and U.S. bond yields, while grim jobless data raised prospects for a slower economic recovery and more stimulus that could spur demand for bullion as an inflation-hedge. Also, President Biden unveiled a $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan to boost the economic recovery, which could push inflation higher. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note dropped from around 1.7%. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, the Labor Department said. The US unemployment rate fell to 6 percent in March of 2021 from 6.2 percent in the previous month, the lowest rate in a year and in line with market expectations. The rate has been falling steadily in recent months after reaching an all-time high of 14.8 percent in April last year but many believe it has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work”. The US economy added 916K jobs in March of 2021, the strongest employment growth in 7 months, following an upwardly revised 468K in February. It compares with market expectations of 647K, amid easing business restrictions, falling coronavirus infection rates, a fast vaccine rollout and continued support from the government. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.41% to settled at 10112 while prices up 1275 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64015 and below same could see a test of 62942 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65658, a move above could see prices testing 66228.           

Trading Ideas:      

*   Silver trading range for the day is 62942-66228.

* Silver gained on a retreat in the dollar and U.S. bond yields, while grim jobless data raised prospects for a slower economic recovery.

*  week, the Labor Department said.

*  Also, President Biden unveiled a $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan to boost the economic recovery, which could push inflation higher.

 

Crude oil     

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.97% at 4514 on supported by news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia and Kazakhstan, have agreed to incremental increases in crude production for three months starting in May. Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a press conference that OPEC+ will raise daily oil production by 350,000 barrels in May, 350,000 barrels in June and by 441,000 barrels in July. Russian oil and gas condensate output rose to 10.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in March from 10.1 million bpd in February, according to Reuters calculations based on an Interfax report citing energy ministry data. The recovery of Russian oil output follows a slump in February, when industry sources said challenges in resuming output from mature fields were exacerbated by harsh winter weather. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said that Russia will also continue to gradually increase its oil production in May to July by a combined 114,000 bpd. Output at OPEC has also risen in March as higher supply from Iran countered reductions by other members under a pact with allies, a survey found, a headwind for its supply-limiting efforts if Tehran's boost is sustained. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 37.65% to settled at 5151 while prices up 130 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4388 and below same could see a test of 4262 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4584, a move above could see prices testing 4654.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4262-4654.

* Crude oil rose after the OPEC+, have agreed to incremental increases in crude production for three months starting in May.

* OPEC+ group has decided to ease cuts starting from May

* Russia's March oil output rises following February's slump

 

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 194.2 after a smaller-than-expected addition to storage last week. U.S. utilities added 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, lower than the expected 21 bcf injection. Refinitiv estimated 174 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states. The average is 201 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). The measure is used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. Data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise slightly to 97.8 bcfd this week from 97.5 bcfd in the prior week, before dropping to 93.0 bcfd in the next week as the weather becomes milder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd in March, up from a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February, when extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and puts feedgas on track to edge out the monthly record of 10.7 bcfd in December. Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.82% to settled at 14206 while prices up 3.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 190.8 and below same could see a test of 187.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.6, a move above could see prices testing 198.9.   

Trading Ideas:         

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 187.3-198.9.

* Natural gas rose after a smaller-than-expected addition to storage last week.

* U.S. utilities added 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, lower than the expected 21 bcf injection.

* Refinitiv estimated 174 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states.

 

Copper       

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 669.4 as support seen after US President Biden announced a $2 trillion infrastructure plan. The eight-year plan aims to rebuild America's aging infrastructure, promote electric vehicles and clean energy, and create employment opportunities. Global copper smelting slipped to the lowest levels in at least five years in March as top producer China failed to recover following the Lunar New Year holiday due to supply shortages, data from satellite surveillance of copper plants showed. Weakness was seen across the board as other regions, which had been hit by pandemic-linked lockdowns, failed to make up for decline in China. China, the world's top refined copper producer, declined to 40.7 in March from 42.0 in February. Japan's second-largest copper smelter, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd , said it planned to produce 421,000 tonnes of refined copper in the 2021/22 financial year that started this month, down 5.0% from a year earlier. The reduction comes as the company plans a 33-day maintenance at its Toyo Smelter & Refinery in Ehime, western Japan from late October, a company spokeswoman said. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw its output of the red metal fall off sharply in February, government statistics agency INE said, dragged down by a decline in the extraction and processing of the country's key export. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.26% to settled at 2717 while prices up 1.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 665.3 and below same could see a test of 661 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 671.9, a move above could see prices testing 674.2.           

Trading Ideas:           

* Copper trading range for the day is 661-674.2.

*  Copper prices gained as support seen after US President Biden announced a $2 trillion infrastructure plan

* Global copper smelting slipped to the lowest levels in at least five years in March as China failed to recover due to supply shortages

* Japan's Sumitomo Metal plans 5% cut in FY21/22 copper output

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 218.3 dragged down by concerns about demand from top consumer China and as fears about supply disruption eased. The Caixin survey showed that Chinese manufacturing activity in March unexpectedly expanded at the slowest pace in almost a year. Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd , Japan's biggest zinc smelter, plans to produce 109,100 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2021/22 financial year that started this month, up 9.5% from a year earlier, it said. Still, Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan is expected to support prices. US President Biden announced a $2 trillion infrastructure plan. The eight-year plan aims to rebuild America's aging infrastructure, promote electric vehicles and clean energy, and create employment opportunities. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that he is guiding the inter-departmental assessment to see if the regulators need to take more measures to solve the vulnerability brought by money market funds and open-end mutual funds after the recent market turmoil. The global zinc market was oversupplied by 11,700 tonnes in January after a revised surplus of 23,500 tonnes in December, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. For 2020, the surplus in the roughly 13.5 million tonne a year market was 536,000 tonnes, according to the ILZSG. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.49% to settled at 1687 while prices down -1.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 216.9 and below same could see a test of 215.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.3, a move above could see prices testing 222.4.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 215.6-222.4.

* Zinc dropped dragged down by concerns about demand from top consumer China and as fears about supply disruption eased.

* The Caixin survey showed that Chinese manufacturing activity in March unexpectedly expanded at the slowest pace in almost a year.

*Japan's Mitsui Mining expects 9.5% rise in H1 zinc output 

 

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 1202.8 after data showed US Markit manufacturing PMI stood at 59.1 in March, and the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 64.7, much better than expected. These strengthened positive outlook for global economic recovery. Prices remained supported in the wake of improving economic prospects backed by the Biden government’s more than $2 trillion stimulus plan. China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a strong surge in the service sector, data showed. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a survey of sentiment among factory owners in the world’s second-largest economy – rose to 51.9 in March from 50.6 in February, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Nickel prices have been supported by rising demand from the electric vehicle batteries sector, solid consumption from the stainless steel industry and supply chain disruption after top ore producer Indonesia banned nickel ore exports from 2020. However upside seen limited following Tsingshan's announcement to produce a large amount of nickel matte in Indonesia. US President Biden announced a $2 trillion infrastructure plan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that he is guiding the inter-departmental assessment to see if the regulators need to take more measures to solve the vulnerability brought by money market funds and open-end mutual funds after the recent market turmoil. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.61% to settled at 1449 while prices up 18.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1184.6 and below same could see a test of 1166.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1213.1, a move above could see prices testing 1223.3.

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1166.3-1223.3.

* Nickel prices gained after data showed US Markit manufacturing PMI stood at 59.1 in March, and the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 64.7, much better than expected.

* Prices remained supported in the wake of improving economic prospects backed by the Biden government’s more than $2 trillion stimulus plan.

* China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a strong surge in the service sector, data showed.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 178.15 as traders worried that Chinese efforts to reduce smelter pollution will restrict output and supply will fall short of demand. China accounts for around 60% of global aluminium output but the government is expected to curtail capacity growth, with Inner Mongolia ordering some smelter closures this month. Soaring shipping costs, booming demand and tight supplies of primary and scrap aluminium are likely to fuel further price rises, particularly in importing countries such as the United States and Europe. China Hongqiao Group, a big producer, will this year publish targets for lower carbon emissions and an action plan on how to reach them, its chairman said. Speculative investors are rebuilding a bullish position in LME aluminium with a net long equal to 7.8% of open contracts as of Thursday. On-warrant aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses surged from 1.1 million tonnes to a five-year high of 1.7 million tonnes earlier this month but have quickly fallen back to around 1.2 million tonnes. China's scrap metal and refined aluminium imports rose sharply year-on-year in January and February. Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay the highest premium in six years to get their metal in the second quarter. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.43% to settled at 1475 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 177.4 and below same could see a test of 176.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.6, a move above could see prices testing 179.1.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 176.7-179.1.

* Aluminium prices rose as traders worried that Chinese efforts to reduce smelter pollution will restrict output and supply will fall short of demand.

* Soaring shipping costs, booming demand and tight supplies of primary and scrap aluminium are likely to fuel further price rises

* Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay the highest premium in six years to get their metal in the second quarter.

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 962.5 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 27.8 Rupees to end at 1094.1 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.38% to settled at 43 while prices down -2.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 962.5 and below same could see a test of 962.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962.5, a move above could see prices testing 962.5. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 962.5-962.5.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 27.8 Rupees to end at 1094.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.

*  Mentha oil prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.5% at 6143 while prices opened with gap up at 6050 tested 6218 level for the first time as support seen tracking rise in overseas prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. We have seen Soybeans for May delivery rose 5.1% to $14.36 3/4 a bushel on the CBoT Wednesday, in reaction to the USDA's prospective planting report showing a smaller-than-expected rise in planned acres to be planted by farmers. The USDA’s prospective plantings report yesterday was fairly constructive for corn and soybean with the agency estimating lower than expected acreage for both crops. Dry weather since late last year and extreme cold in February appear to have weighed on acreage intentions. The USDA estimates that soybeans acreage to increase by around 5% YoY to 87.6m acres in 2021/22, compared to market expectations of 90.1m acres. Soybean stocks in the country were also reported to have dropped to 1.56bn bushels as of 1 March 2021 compared to 2.25bn bushels at the same point last year. Lower stocks of corn and soybeans were not a surprise, given the stronger demand seen for both crops from China. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 178 Rupees to 6210 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.26% to settled at 62350 while prices up 150 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6056 and below same could see a test of 5969 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6224, a move above could see prices testing 6305.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5969-6305.

* Soyabean rallied over 6200 as support seen tracking rise in overseas prices after the USDA plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations.

* Prices rallied to all time high as soybean demand from millers increased on good export demand of soymeal along with improved domestic demand

* Soybean mandi arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka fell.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  178 Rupees to 6210 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil      

 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.18% at 1284.5 tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. Government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1290.85 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.82% to settled at 32575 while prices up 15 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1275 and below same could see a test of 1267 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1293, a move above could see prices testing 1303. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1267-1303.

* Ref Soyoil gained tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. 

* Support also seen due to tightening global supplies.

  * Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1290.85 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 1090.3 tracking rise in Malaysian palm oil prices helped by data showing strong March palm oil exports. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March rose 26.8 percent to 1,270,058 tonnes from 1,001,440 tonnes shipped during February, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March rose 27.6% to 1,277,255 tonnes from 1,000,854 tonnes shipped during February. Pressure seen on prices earlier in the day amid as sentiment was weighed by weak demand from top buyers India and China ahead of March output and export data. Pressure also seen amid expectations of higher production further weighed on the market. Pressure also seen after reports that cabinet minister Piyush Goyal said in parliament government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. China, the world's second-largest palm oil buyer, has allowed the import of red palm oil from Malaysia, the Southeast Asian nation said. China implemented new standards starting March 1 that allowed unrestricted imports of premium palm oil from Malaysia, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said in a statement. "The newly announced Chinese group standard allows the import of red palm oil without the barrier effective from 1 March 2021," said MPOB. By the end of the year 2021, palm oil stock in Indonesia will be 2.67 million tonnes according to the Palm Oil Association of Indonesia. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 20.5 Rupees to end at 1147.3 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.15% to settled at 5892 while prices up 14 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1080.4 and below same could see a test of 1070.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1100.8, a move above could see prices testing 1111.3.         

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1070.5-1111.3.

*Crude palm oil gains tracking rise in Malaysian palm oil prices helped by data showing strong March palm oil exports.

* Malaysia's March palm oil exports rise 26.8 pct – ITS

* Malaysia's March palm oil exports rise 27.6% – AmSpec Agri

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 20.5 Rupees to end at 1147.3 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed      

 

 

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.09% at 5801 as COOIT and MOPA are expected to produce 89.50 lakh mustard throughout the country during the current Rabi season. Earlier according to the second advance production estimate of crop year 2020-21 released by the central government last month, mustard production in the country this year is 104.27 lakh tonnes. According to the assessment of the industry organization, Rajasthan, the country's largest mustard producing state, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year. The weather is favorable this year during the Rabi season and farmers taking interest in mustard cultivation has increased the area under sowing and the yield per hectare has also increased, so this year in the country Mustard records are expected to be produced. Uttar Pradesh is estimated to produce 1.5 million tonnes of mustard. Punjab and Haryana are expected to produce 10.50 lakh tons of mustard, 10 lakh tons in Madhya Pradesh, 5 lakh tons in West Bengal, 4 lakh tons in Gujarat and about 10 lakh tons of mustard in the eastern and other states of the country. Canada’s Canola seed exports to China are strong despite China continuing to block Canada’s two largest canola exporters, and China maintaining a restrictive dockage requirement of one percent on its canola imports. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 164.25 Rupees to end at 5764.25 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.65% to settled at 41700 while prices up 119 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5720 and below same could see a test of 5639 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5881, a move above could see prices testing 5961.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5639-5961.

* Mustard prices gained as India's 2020-21 mustard seed production seen at 89.50 lakh tons

* Rajasthan, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year.

* Canada’s total canola, production in 2021-22 is forecast to fall on reduced processing of canola seed due to lower seed supply.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 164.25 Rupees to end at 5764.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric       

 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 8396 as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. Prices seen pressure as sentiments again drown down after the Central government clarified that a turmeric board would not be set up in Nizamabad as the existing spices board was already handling 50 spices including turmeric. Export prospects of turmeric have been affected following a 30 per cent increase in its prices since the beginning of this month across various primary agricultural markets in the country. According to data by the Ministry of Agriculture, turmeric production was estimated at 9.46 lakh tonnes during the 2019-20 season (July-June), compared with 9.61 lakh tonnes the previous year, despite the area under the crop rising by 4,000 hectares to 2.57 lakh hectares. According to data by the Spices Board, turmeric exports during the April-September period of the current fiscal were 99,000 tonnes compared with 69,500 tonnes during the same period a year ago with the value of the shipments rising 35 per cent. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7726.45 Rupees gained 131.7 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.4% to settled at 5815 while prices down -94 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8296 and below same could see a test of 8196 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8474, a move above could see prices testing 8552.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8196-8552.

* Turmeric dropped as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

* Prices seen pressure as sentiments again drown down after the Central government clarified that a turmeric board would not be set up in Nizamabad

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7726.45 Rupees gained 131.7 Rupees.

 

Jeera      

 

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.8% at 14445 as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month over the previous month and by 43% over the corresponding period of the previous year. New season crop arrivals are reported in both the key producing states, viz., Gujarat and Rajasthan, which seem to have led to higher mandi arrivals. However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level. This, indirectly, lent support to prices of better quality produce. In the progressive 2020-21 Rabi season, Jeera acreage in Gujarat, is reported at 4.69 lakh hectares, lower by 4% from 4.88 lakh hectares a year ago. The area sown in Gujarat is 15% more than 5-year average sown area during the corresponding period. Good rainfall during October which has improved required soil moisture which is expected to augur well for production of Rabi crops, including Jeera. On the export front, India exported around 2.30 lakh tonnes of Jeera in April-December, 2020 which is 36% higher than April-December 2019 at 1.69 lakh tonnes. In Dec 2020, Jeera exports reported at 0.27 lakh tonnes, have been 52% higher than 0.18 lakh tonnes recorded in the previous month. Jeera exports from India has already surpassed the total exports (2.14 lakh tonnes) recorded for the last year (2019-20). In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11% to settled at 3618 while prices down -265 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14320 and below same could see a test of 14190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14625, a move above could see prices testing 14800.           

Trading Ideas:            

*Jeera trading range for the day is 14190-14800.

*Jeera dropped as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month over the previous month

* New season crop arrivals are reported in Gujarat and Rajasthan, seems to have led to higher mandi arrivals.

* However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

           

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 21260 after reports the federal cabinet rejected an Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) proposal to import cotton from India. The rejection comes a day after the ECC gave a go-ahead to the import of cotton, cotton yarn and sugar from the neighbooring country. Cotton rose after Pakistan lifted a nearly two-year ban on cotton imports from arch-rival India, the finance minister said. Support also seen after U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates all cotton planted area for 2021 at 12.0 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year. The government has increased prices of BG2 cotton seeds by 5%. In a notification issued, the government has stated that the prices of BG2 cotton have been fixed at Rs 767 for a 450-gm packet — a 5% rise from the previous year’s price of Rs 730 for the same. “This is less than the 10% rise we requested for, but we consider it as a good gesture by the government. The association has represented to the government that the cotton seed business is becoming unviable for the industry, and research investments in developing new hybrids have dwindled significantly. If this is not corrected immediately, it will adversely affect cotton yields and farmers’ profitability,” Ram Kaundinya, director general, Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSI) and Alliance for Agri Innovation, said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 21690 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.48% to settled at 7660 while prices down -150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21080 and below same could see a test of 20910 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21540, a move above could see prices testing 21830.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20910-21830.

* Cotton prices dropped paring gains after reports Cabinet rejects ECC proposal to import cotton from India

* USDA estimates all cotton planted area for 2021 at 12.0 million acres, down less than 1 percent from last year.

*  Govt hikes BG2 cotton seed price by 5%

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -10 Rupees to end at 21690 Rupees.

 

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 5023 as the Centre has pegged chana output at 11.6 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) against 11.1 mln tn last year. Procurement of gram in Rajasthan will start from April 1. According to Cooperative Minister Udayalal Anjana, a target has been set to purchase 6 lakh 14 thousand 900 metric tons of gram. Gram will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 5100 per quintal. Madhya Pradesh government had postponed the procurement of crop due to bad weather. The Ministry of Agriculture Department has announced a new date for the production of gram and mustard crop in the agricultural produce mandis of Madhya Pradesh and the procurement work is scheduled to be started from 27-03-2021. This time, all the crops coming in the Kharif and Rabi season are sitting low in the form of productivity, due to which all the pulses and oilseeds crops are seeing a rapid growth. All states had almost the same amount as last year, at present, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh crops are coming and in Rajasthan, there are a few small ones because the crop being ready, the effect of the heat of February and March has resulted in a huge decrease in productivity in summer. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -9.75 Rupees to end at 4976.65 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.12% to settled at 52960 while prices down -16 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5001 and below same could see a test of 4978 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5059, a move above could see prices testing 5094.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4978-5094.

* Chana prices dropped as the Centre has pegged chana output at 11.6 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) against 11.1 mln tn last year.

* Rajasthan: Chana to be purchased on MSP from April 1

* Gram will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 5100 per quintal.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -9.75 Rupees to end at 4976.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com 

 

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer