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USDINR

Technical Outlook on Rupee

USDINR pair on the weekly making lower lows and lower highs denoting weakness . On the daily chart pair closed below 20 SMA but closed above 50 SMA and traded in the range 76.20 and 75.45 . Momentum indicators RSI given negative cross over denoting negative momentum.

If pair break below 75.45 could see prices heading towards 74.75 and 74 on the downside . On the other hand, break above 76.20 would see pair testing 76.85 and 77.20 on the upside

Fundamental news on USDINR

USDINR largely remained in a range 76.20 and 75.45 and was impacted majorly by crude oil prices and the dollar index. USDINR has been driven upwards by a rising US Dollar Index. However, the pair lacks momentum due to falling oil prices.

Fed hinted that they are looking at $95 billion per month of balance sheet reduction and possibly a couple of 50-bps rate hikes

RBI kept the rate unchanged and A mild change in language from RBI. but not enough to create volatility in USDINR. However, Indian bond yields are above 7% , highest since June 2019. Next week we have a short weekend so moreover USDINR will continue to impacted majorly by dollar index and crude oil prices

EURINR

Technical Outlook on EURINR

EURINR pair broke below the 83.90 and 85.40 and heading lower denoting bearish trend. On the daily chart pair has closed below 20 SMA and 50 SMA confirm a short term bearish trend

Momentum indicators RSI given negative cross over denoting negative momentum.

From the below observation we can conclude that if prices break below 82.50 pair could test 82 and 81.30 on the downside . On the other hand break above 84.30 could see pair testing 84.90 and 85.40 on the upside.

Fundamental news on EURINR

Weak economic prospects in Eurozone will continue to support the widening monetary policy divergence between ECB and US Fed.

ECB’s policy member Philip R. Lane suggested that ECB needs to be patient in tinkering with monetary policy and not overreact to the surge in inflation. A clear hint that ECB will be going slow, unlike Fed, in tightening monetary policy.

Next week factor that needs to be monitored will be the impact of upcoming elections in France. The right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen is closing the gap with Macron.

GBPINR

Technical Outlook on GBPINR

GBPINR on the weekly chart making lower lows and lower highs denoting bearish trend. On the daily chart pair is trading below 20 SMA and 50 SMA confirming downward trend in short term.

Momentum indicators RSI making lower lows and lower highs confirming bearish trend

Break below 98.88 could see prices testing 98 and 97.50 on the downside. On the flipside break above 100 could see the pair testing 100.50 and 101 on the upside

Fundamental news on GBPINR

BOE remains cautious in its outlook on future rate hikes, whereas US Fed remains committed to faster rate hikes and reduction in the size of balance sheet. Add to this the uncertainty stemming from prices of commodities and supply chain impact from the war in Ukraine

The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK Services PMI® Business Activity Index rose for the third month running to reach 62.6 in March, up from 60.5 in February. This highlighted a continued rebound in output growth from the Omicronrelated slowdown seen at the end of last year.

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