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Gold

Gold yesterday settled flat by 0.06% at 44840 but expected to open with gap up as sentiments improved after the Federal Reserve left its policy rates unchanged and said it is unlikely to hike rates until 2023. The dollar index, which was staying above the flat line, fell after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and said a hike is unlikely until after 2023. The dollar index was down 0.25% at 91.36. The Federal Reserve has kept its target range for Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 0% to 0.25%. The central bank has raised forecasts for the economy and inflation but expects interest rates to remain unchanged through 2023. The central bank's policymakers appear in no hurry to hike rates, continuing to back rates to remain near-zero through 2023. The FOMC announcement after the market's closed indicated that the Federal Reserve would aim to achieve inflation moderately over 2 percent for a period of time. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said a transient inflation would not meet the Fed's standard for any policy shift. U.S. President Joe Biden is reportedly looking to include the first major tax increase since 1993 in his next spending bill. While still far away from reality, the tax hike could benefit gold, but it all depends on how the Federal Reserve responds. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.77% to settled at 8724 while prices up 27 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44719 and below same could see a test of 44597 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45000, a move above could see prices testing 45159.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44597-45159.

* Gold prices settled flat but expected to open with gap up as sentiments improved after Fed left its policy rates unchanged and said it is unlikely to hike rates until 2023. 

* The Federal Reserve has kept its target range for Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 0% to 0.25%. 

* Retail sales in the US shrank 3 percent month-over-month in February of 2021, following an upwardly revised 7.6 percent jump in January

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 67227 and will open with gap up as Fed projected a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth and inflation this year as the COVID-19 crisis winds down, and repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero for years to come. The U.S. central bank now sees the economy growing 6.5% this year - predicting the largest annual output growth since 1984 - and the unemployment rate falling to 4.5% by year's end, compared to growth of 4.2% and unemployment of 5% projected at its December policy meeting. The pace of price increases is now expected to exceed the Fed's 2% target for the year, hitting 2.4% by year's end before falling back in 2022. "Indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up," the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement that kept the benchmark overnight interest rate in a target range of zero to 0.25%.The improvement in the Fed's economic outlook did not immediately alter policymakers' expectations for interest rates, though the weight of opinion did shift. Seven of 18 officials now expect to raise rates in 2023, compared to five in December. Four officials now feel rates may need to rise as soon as next year, a change from zero as of the last projections in December. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.57% to settled at 11794 while prices up 308 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66885 and below same could see a test of 66544 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67484, a move above could see prices testing 67742.

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66544-67742.

* Silver prices gained and will open with gap up as Fed projected a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth and inflation this year 

* The Fed raised its forecast on GDP growth this year to a 6.5% annualized rate, from 4.2%. 

* Inflation is likely a key worry for investors, though the Fed said Wednesday that it will tolerate inflation slightly above target 

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 4664 as U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles all rose last week, as refiners boosted output with more facilities coming back online following February’s devastating storms in Texas. Oil prices are unlikely to mount a dramatic and sustained surge despite vaccines expected to boost demand later this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said "Oil’s sharp rally to near $70 a barrel has spurred talk of a new supercycle and a looming supply shortfall. Our data and analysis suggest otherwise," the IEA said in its monthly report. "For a start, oil inventories still look ample compared with historical levels despite a steady decline. On top of the stock cushion, a hefty amount of spare production capacity has built up as a result of OPEC+ supply curbs," it said. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline by about 46,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April to about 7.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly forecast. U.S. crude inventories fell by 1mbls last week, according to API, after a build of 12.79mbls the previous week. Gasoline inventories declined by about 930,000, compared with an 8.5 million draw in the prior week, while distillate stocks increased by about 904,000 barrels. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.36% to settled at 3240 while prices down -40 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4608 and below same could see a test of 4552 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4734, a move above could see prices testing 4804.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4552-4804.

* Crude oil dropped as U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles all rose last week, as refiners boosted output with more facilities coming back online

* Oil supercycle unlikely due to ample stocks and supply, IEA says

* U.S. shale oil output to drop 46,000 bpd to 7.46 mln bpd in April -EIA

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 184.4 on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected for next week. That small price decline came despite record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for colder weather and higher than previously expected heating demand this week. Global gas demand is expected to grow by 2.8% this year, or about 110 billion cubic metres (bcm), recovering towards 2019 levels, a senior analyst from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said at the European Gas conference. Global gas markets posted their largest drop on record last year, with consumption falling by an estimated 100 bcm as milder weather at the start of the year and the COVID-19 pandemic slammed energy demand, the IEA's senior natural gas analyst Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil told the virtual conference. Traders noted that prices were also under pressure from falling demand and rising output that cut weekly storage withdrawals to near zero this week and are likely to result in a small build next week. That compares with five-year (2016-2020) average decreases of 51 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended March 19 and 24 bcf for the week ended March 26. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.16% to settled at 9178 while prices down -0.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 181.7 and below same could see a test of 178.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 186.8, a move above could see prices testing 189.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 178.9-189.1.

* Natural gas eased on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected for next week.

* That small price decline came despite record LNG exports and forecasts for colder weather and higher than previously expected heating demand this week.

* Global gas demand likely to grow by 2.8% this year – IEA

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.02% at 676.1 as support seen after reports that China has approved a new COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use, the fifth coronavirus vaccine approved in the country and the fourth to be given emergency use approval. Risk appetite was also encouraged by signs that the recovery in the US economy gained traction as more Americans get vaccinated and that the Biden administration has started sending out $1,400 stimulus checks last weekend. LME copper inventories jumped 12% to 103,900 tonnes in one session, their highest since Jan. 8 , while stockpiles in ShFE warehouses were last at 171,794 tonnes, a level unseen since September. Meanwhile, Chilean miner Antofagasta expects to reach a pay deal with its workers this month, as wage talks at its Los Pelambres mine extended into next week in an effort to avoid a strike. Yangshan copper premium fell to $67 a tonne, its lowest since Jan. 13, indicating weakening demand for imported copper into China. Top copper producer Codelco received approval from the regional environmental regulator to extend the life of its Radomiro Tomic mine in Chile until 2030. China's imports of copper are likely to rebound in March, but the expected increase after a disappointing start to the year may not be quite as bullish as it appears at first glance. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.23% to settled at 2694 while prices up 6.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 671.2 and below same could see a test of 666.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 678.8, a move above could see prices testing 681.5.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 666.3-681.5.

* Copper gains as support seen after reports that China has approved a new COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

* LME copper inventories jumped 12% to 103,900 tonnes in one session, their highest since Jan. 8

* Stockpiles in ShFE warehouses were last at 171,794 tonnes, a level unseen since September.

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.18% at 219.35 as supplies of zinc concentrates remained tight and smelters eyed supporting zinc prices to keep their profits from shrinking further. China's zinc and zinc alloy production in February fell by 60,000 tonnes from the previous month due to maintenance over the Lunar New Year holiday. Last month's output totalled 423,000 tonnes, down 3.1% on a daily basis from January, which had three more days, but up 8.2% year-on-year. Smelters that ran maintenance in February have restarted but others in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu and Hunan are carrying out overhauls this month. China's refined zinc output stood at 471,200 mt in February, falling 71,100 mt or down 13.1% on month and up 4.03% on year. For January-February, output totalled 1.01 million mt, up 3.26% from the same period last year. Zinc smelters produced 71,700 mt of zinc alloy in January, down 8.72% from the previous month. Among them, mineral zinc output stood at 394,745 mt in February, and secondary zinc output stood at 15,750 mt. China's refined zinc output in February basically met expectations. The decline in domestic refined zinc output in February was mainly due to the seasonal shutdown or production control of smelters during the CNY. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.52% to settled at 1743 while prices up 2.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 217.9 and below same could see a test of 216.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.4, a move above could see prices testing 221.2.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 216.2-221.2.

*  Zinc prices gained as supplies of zinc concentrates remained tight

* China's zinc and zinc alloy production in February fell by 60,000 tonnes from the previous month due to maintenance

* China's refined zinc output stood at 471,200 mt in February, falling 71,100 mt or down 13.1% on month and up 4.03% on year.

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 1161.9 despite Russian producer Nornickel has again pushed back the restart date for two mines in Siberia. The world's largest producer of high-grade nickel expects to restore full capacity at its flooded mines in Siberia in the next 3-4 months but revised its metal production volumes to reflect the mining halt. Nornickel's Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky mines have been closed since February 24 following an inflow of groundwater into the two mines. The nickel production shortfall should be 65,000 tonnes for copper, 35,000 tonnes for nickel and 22 tonnes for the platinum metal groups, Nornickel said. Nickel demand will be supported by the metals persisting popularity in battery cathode chemistry, with downside risks caused by concerns over future supply availability. There were reports that China has approved a new COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use, the fifth coronavirus vaccine approved in the country and the fourth to be given emergency use approval. Risk appetite was also encouraged by signs that the recovery in the US economy gained traction as more Americans get vaccinated and that the Biden administration has started sending out $1,400 stimulus checks last weekend. China's refined nickel output in February rose 5.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y to 13,673 tonnes, with Yantai Cash's decision to make nickel sulphate for batteries leaving only two smelters producing metal. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.09% to settled at 1992 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1154.6 and below same could see a test of 1147.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1168.5, a move above could see prices testing 1175.2.  

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1147.4-1175.2.

*  Nickel prices settled flat as Russian producer Nornickel has again pushed back the restart date for two mines in Siberia.

* The world's largest producer of high-grade nickel expects to restore full capacity at its flooded mines in Siberia in the next 3-4 months

* China's refined nickel output in February rose 5.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y to 13,673 tonnes

Aluminium       

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.12% at 176.05 as support seen after data showed LME Aluminium stock is down by 7025MT while Cancelled Warrant is up by 30175MT. Prices gained as supply concerns in top consumer China rose after an aluminium hub ordered power cuts and industrial production shutdowns. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia, a major aluminium producing region, ordered the shutdowns as part of the nation's plan to reduce carbon emissions. Aluminium inventories in LME warehouses were hovering around their highest since March 2017, while stockpiles in ShFE warehouses hit a high level unseen since April 2020 last week, latest data showed. China's aluminium production rose 8.4% in the first two months of 2021 compared with the same period last year, official data showed on Monday, as smelters added new capacity and cashed in on soaring prices. Primary aluminium output in China, the world's biggest aluminium producer, was 6.45 million tonnes in January and February combined, the National Bureau of Statistics said. It combined data for the first two months to account for the distortions of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The data suggests output averaged around 109,300 tonnes per day in January-February, setting a new daily record, versus around 105,400 tonnes per day in December and beating the previous record of about 106,000 tonnes in November. China added 220,000 tonnes of annual aluminium production capacity in January and February, all of it in the emerging smelting hub of Yunnan province in Southwest China. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11% to settled at 1302 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 174.1 and below same could see a test of 172.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 177.6, a move above could see prices testing 179.1.           

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 172.1-179.1.

*  Aluminium prices gained as support seen after data showed LME Aluminium stock is down by 7025MT while Cancelled Warrant is up by 30175MT.

* Prices rose as supply concerns in top consumer China rose and industrial production shutdowns

*  Aluminium output in first two months of 2021 at 6.45 mln T

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 952.6 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1073.5 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.14% to settled at 45 while prices down -6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 947.4 and below same could see a test of 942.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 960.3, a move above could see prices testing 968.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 942.3-968.1.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1073.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean     

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 5434 amid persistent worries about a rain-delayed harvest in top producer Brazil. Markets were already basking in the glow of continued robust demand from China and tightening US soybeans supplies. In Argentina, the prolonged dry weather condition in the producing regions has prompted the USDA to lower its forecast of 2020/21 Argentine soybean production to 47.5 million metric tons. In USDA’s monthly report, the Department has left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, lowered the crop guess for Argentina, and raised production for Brazil’s crop size. Despite the hike in the world stocks (due to increase in Brazilian soybean output estimate), consistent growth in world soybean usage, are most likely to keep ending 2020/21 supplies at the tightest level in twelve years. Combined with the increase to Brazilian soybean output, the current level of global soybean stocks appears slightly better versus previous estimates. However, as long as the Brazilian soybean shipments remain delayed, markets may continue to factor in the prevailing tight supply conditions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended March 4 at 563,800 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5701 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.09% to settled at 141360 while prices up 14 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5405 and below same could see a test of 5376 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5460, a move above could see prices testing 5486.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5376-5486.

* Soyabean prices remained supported amid persistent worries about a rain-delayed harvest in top producer Brazil.

* Markets were already basking in the glow of continued robust demand from China and tightening US soybeans supplies.

* Brazil's Abiove sees 2021 soybean exports at record 84 million tns

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5701 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.74% at 1261.2 amid profit booking as overall vegoil imports declined by 3.7% during November-February 2020-21. Excessive import of crude palm oil (CPO) in the previous two months and higher prices of soft oils such as sunflower seem to have impacted the import of edible oils. The import of edible oils came down by 26.89 per cent in February 2021 and 3.85 per cent in the first five months of the oil year 2020-21. According to the data compiled by Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India, the country imported 796,568 tonnes of edible oil in February 2021 against 1,089,661 tonnes in the corresponding period of 2020; and 4,454,588 tonnes during November-February 2020-21 against 4,282,693 tonnes in November-February of 2019-20. Earlier prices rallied to record high on tightening global vegetable oil supplies and on uncertainty about South American crop weather. Support also seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices. According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes, due to no rain in February, excessive rainfall in March. SEA of India’s data showed that the import of vegetable oils (which includes edible and non-edible oils) stood at 8,38,607 tonnes in February 2021 against 1,112,478 tonnes in February 2020, recording a decline of 25 per cent. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1283.1 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.02% to settled at 60045 while prices down -22.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1251 and below same could see a test of 1241 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1277, a move above could see prices testing 1293.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1241-1293.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped amid profit booking as overall vegoil imports declined by 3.7% during November-February 2020-21.

* The import of edible oils came down by 26.89 per cent in February 2021 and 3.85 per cent in the first five months of the oil year 2020-21.

* The country imported 796,568 tonnes of edible oil in February 2021 against 1,089,661 tonnes

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1283.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil     

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 1117.9 amid anticipation of improving production. Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, exported 2.86 million tonnes of palm oil and its products in January, up 19.6% from the same month last year, data from the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. In January, Indonesia produced 3.76 million tonnes of crude palm oil and kernel oil, bringing its stocks to 4.25 million tonnes by the end of the month. That compared to end-2020 stocks of 4.87 million tonnes. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' association had forecast production during March 1-15 to fall 62% from the previous month. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-15 fell 1% to 549,273 tonnes from the same period in February, according to data from Societe Generale de Surveillance. India's palm oil imports fell 27% in February from a year earlier to their lowest in nine months, a leading trade body said, reflecting a slowdown in domestic demand. India imported 394,495 tonnes of palm oil, down from 540,470 tonnes a year earlier, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. India buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, while other oils, including soyoil and sunflower oil, are sourced from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -5 Rupees to end at 1158 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.06% to settled at 4561 while prices down -10.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1110.8 and below same could see a test of 1103.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1129.6, a move above could see prices testing 1141.2.       

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1103.6-1141.2.

* Crude palm oil prices dropped amid anticipation of improving production.

* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' association had forecast production during March 1-15 to fall 62% from the previous month.

* Indonesia's Jan palm oil exports up nearly 20% y/y – palm oil association

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -5 Rupees to end at 1158 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.15% at 5744 due to projections of a record harvest, with the harvest season just about starting. However downside seen limited as fewer carry-forward stocks this year resulted in higher prices. Currently, market prices are ruling higher by over a tenth above the MSP of ₹ 4,650 per quintal across various markets in Rajasthan. Arrivals have begun in other growing States such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and the trade sources expect some moderation in the price trend when the arrivals peak next month. Mustard production, according to the second advance estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, is seen at 10.43 million tonnes against last year’s 9.12 million tonnes, an increase of 14 per cent. The trade estimates the crop between 8.5 and 9 million tonnes, higher than the last year’s 7.5 million tonnes. Mustard acreage in 2020-21 rabi season was higher by about five lakh hectares at nearly 74 lakh hectares, with almost all major producing states reporting an increase in area. According to SEA’s Mehta, India had the lowest yield per hectare, among the mustard producing countries. As against the world average of 2144 kg per hectare, the Indian mustard yields stood at 1161 kg per ha during 2013-16. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5600 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.66% to settled at 51100 while prices down -67 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5702 and below same could see a test of 5660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5801, a move above could see prices testing 5858.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5660-5858.

* Mustard prices dropped due to projections of a record harvest, with the harvest season just about starting.

* However downside seen limited as fewer carry-forward stocks this year resulted in higher prices.

* Currently, market prices are ruling higher by over a tenth above the MSP of ₹ 4,650 per quintal across various markets in Rajasthan

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5600 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.72% at 8394 on profit booking as demand is low at higher levels and arrivals have started in key markets such as Nizamabad and Erode. In Nizamabad Mandi, 20,000 bags of turmeric have arrived while in Erode 5300 bags arrived. In Sangli 32,000 bags of arrivals in Sangli mandi, compared to 27,448 bags in the previous season. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and arrivals of new goods in the month of February. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7947.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.17% to settled at 8585 while prices down -324 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8272 and below same could see a test of 8150 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8614, a move above could see prices testing 8834.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8150-8834.

* Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking as demand is low at higher levels and arrivals have started in key markets such as Nizamabad and Erode.

* In Nizamabad Mandi, 20,000 bags of turmeric have arrived while in Erode 5300 bags arrived.

* In Sangli 32,000 bags of arrivals in Sangli mandi, compared to 27,448 bags in the previous season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7947.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 14690 as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14133.35 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.31% to settled at 4146 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14540 and below same could see a test of 14395 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14855, a move above could see prices testing 15025.

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14395-15025.

* Jeera settled flat paring most of its gains as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying

* However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived as compared to 7,000 bags

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14133.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 22020 on profit booking after prices gained as India’s cotton exports are likely to hit 60 lakh bales for the current season on cost competitiveness. ICA has noted that so far about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped since the start of the season. For the cotton crop, CAI has revised its output projections downward to 358.5 lakh bales, lower by about 1.5 lakh bales from previous estimate. CAI, in its latest crop outlook for March, stated that India’s cotton imports will be around 12 lakh bales for the year, which is lower by about 2 lakh bales from the earlier estimated. Cotton has grown so much after the last three years, which will undoubtedly increase farmers' interest in cotton cultivation in the next season. Global cotton stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as consumption is set to outpace production. The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2m tonnes to 24.5m tonnes. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), stock levels are forecast to be down 1% on last year. Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton and the latter due to a decrease in domestic production. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 22150 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.38% to settled at 5745 while prices down -150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21900 and below same could see a test of 21770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22220, a move above could see prices testing 22410.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21770-22410.

* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained as India’s cotton exports are likely to hit 60 lakh bales 

* Cotton prices in the country have risen by more than 15 per cent from its MSP.

* Global cotton stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as consumption is set to outpace production.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 22150 Rupees.

Chana      

Chana yesterday settled down by -2.27% at 5045 on profit booking as the central government has estimated the production of gram to rise from 111 lakh tonnes in 2019-20 to 116 lakh tonnes in the current Rabi season of 2020-21. However downside seen limited due to increasing sun and heat, the average yield rate of gram in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to fall by up to 25 percent. It may be noted that Madhya Pradesh remains first, Rajasthan second and Maharashtra third in the production of gram. Domestic production of gram is expected to be lower than expected during the current Rabi season, while demand is likely to remain strong in the upcoming festive and marriage season. The arrival of gram in the mandis is falling much less than expected. Chana crops are being affected due to adverse weather conditions in the major producing states. Compared to last year, this time there is good demand in gram. Chana's sowing center has increased from 107 lakh hectares in 2019-20 to 112 lakh hectares in the Rabi season of 2020-21. If the weather conditions were favorable, its total domestic production could have reached around 1 million tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4958.35 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.62% to settled at 75360 while prices down -117 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4984 and below same could see a test of 4922 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5138, a move above could see prices testing 5230.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4922-5230.

* Chana prices dropped on profit booking as the central government has estimated the production of gram to rise to 116 lakh tonnes.

* However downside seen limited due to increasing sun and heat, the average yield in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to fall by up to 25 percent.

* The arrival of gram in the mandis is falling much less than expected.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4958.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

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