01-04-2023 12:17 PM | Source: Angel One Ltd
Commodity Article : Gold slips, ahead of US Fed meeting minutes; recession fears loom over crude Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
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Below is Gold Article by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities, and Currencies, Angel One Ltd

GOLD

Gold was back on track after encountering a hiccup in the previous session as the yellow metal closed 0.87 percent higher at 1839.5$ per ounce.

The market is still awaiting the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes, which could provide information on the direction of the US central bank's tightening.

Although rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets, gold is nevertheless regarded as an inflation hedge.

China's factory activity shrank at a sharper pace in December as surging COVID-19 infections disrupted production and weighed on demand.

Outlook: We expect gold to trade higher towards 55450 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 55680 levels.

 

CRUDE OIL

After a series of positive returns over the past week, crude prices on Tuesday slipped lower, with both the benchmark indices, Brent and NYMEX ending with a 2.87 and 4.15 percent cut respectively.

The decline comes as markets wait for the US Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes.

The US Fed increased interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in December of the previous year following four consecutive increases of 75 bps each. The Fed's rate hikes might weaken the economy and reduce oil use if it keeps up the pace.

After the Chinese government increased export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch for 2023, the NYMEX experienced a significant decline that is the largest daily decline in more than three months.

Outlook: We expect crude to trade higher towards 6710 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 6790 levels.

 

BASE METALS

The metals pack on Tuesday witnessed a mixed trading session, with aluminium being the top loser, down over 2 percent on the LME and MCX.

A stronger dollar, dimming demand expectations due to sluggish growth in top consumer China and other major nations, and negative sentiments all contributed to copper's lower closing price decline.

Manufacturing activity in China shrank more quickly in December, according to surveys of purchasing managers (PMIs), as a wave of infections interrupted production and weighed on demand.

Outlook: Base metal prices are anticipated to be under pressure as concerns about the recession and China's economic woes are likely to reduce demand for these metals.

 

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