Commodity Article : Gold crawls back higher, Crude slips over 1 percent Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
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Below is Daily Commodity Article by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities, and Currencies, Angel One Ltd
GOLD
After falling more than 1% on Wednesday, gold prices recovered in the previous session, concluding with more than 1% gains, recouping prior session losses.
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as the dollar fell and bond yields fell in response to a significant increase in US weekly unemployment claims.
This strengthened market views that the Federal Reserve will halt its rate hike cycle. The increase in unemployment claims suggested a decline in the labor market, raising concerns about a possible recession.
This economic weakness boded favourably for gold, as it signalled a probable halt in the Fed's tightening cycle, with a 71% possibility that the US central bank would refrain from raising interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting.
Outlook: We expect gold to trade lower towards 59590 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 59460 levels.
CRUDE
Crude prices fell more than 1% in the previous session, wiping off nearly all of the previous day's gains.
Concerns over demand eclipsed the potential impact of lower supply from global producers, causing oil prices to fall.
Investor skepticism about a US-Iran nuclear deal weakened market mood to further extent.
The week was on track to lose roughly 1%, marking the second consecutive week of losses. Despite initial advances fueled by Saudi Arabia's pledge to significantly reduce output.
Outlook: We expect crude to trade lower towards 5780 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 5670 levels.
BASE METALS
Following the release of data showing an increase in US weekly jobless claims, base metal prices ended the day higher on Thursday.
This caused the dollar to fall even lower, making dollar-denominated commodities more desirable to holders of other currencies.
While market hopes of a Chinese government stimulus programme, the world's largest copper consumer, have provided some assistance, demand-side fundamentals remain relatively poor.
Copper is being interpreted with mixed feelings, with factors like the strength of the dollar and fears over China's economic development weighing on market mood.
Outlook: Metal prices are predicted to remain elevated in the short term, as the US Fed is expected to delay rate hikes, and China's stimulus package announcement will also play a crucial part in shaping the future trend.
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