Buy TVS Motor Company Ltd For Target Rs.625 - Motilal Oswal
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In line with est.; wholesales flat (v/s Jul’19) at 278.9k
2W volumes flat (v/s Jul’19), while 3W posts 8% CAGR (v/s Jul’19)
* TVSL’s wholesales were flat (v/s Jul’ 19) at 278.9k units (v/s est. 292.1k units), +10% YoY / +11% MoM.
* 2W volumes were flat (v/s Jul’19) at 262.7k units, up 8% YoY / 10% MoM. Domestic 2Ws posted an 8% volume CAGR decline (v/s Jul’19) to 175.2k units, - 8% YoY/ +20% MoM. 2W posted a 24% CAGR in export volumes (v/s Jul’19) to 87.6k units, +62% YoY / -6% MoM. We estimate 2W FY22E volumes to grow 22%.
* 3W posted an 8% volume CAGR (v/s Jul’19) to 16.1k units (v/s est.14.4k units), +80% YoY / +17% MoM. We estimate total 3W volumes to grow 36% in FY22E.
* Overall volumes are estimated to grow ~22.5% in FY22E, implying a residual runrate of 350.1k or ~11% residual growth.
* The stock trades at 22.7x/17.4x FY22/FY23E EPS. Maintain Neutral
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