Buy Pfizer Ltd For Target Rs .5,790 - Centrum Broking
Low cost drives earnings
Pfizer reported Q2FY23 result, with overall revenue came flat on YoY and grew 8% QoQ to Rs6.4bn. Despite lower sales, its better cost mix resulted EBITDA growth of 22% YoY and 21% QoQ to Rs2.3bn with margin expansion of 658bps YoY and 400bps QoQ at 36%. During the quarter Pfizer had a one?off income related to transfer of certain primarily off?patented and generic established medicines (Upjohn Business). Adjusted to this PAT for the quarter came in at Rs1.7bn up 19% YoY and 26% QoQ (Reported PAT was Rs3.1bn). We remain are positive on Pfizer as it has ~50% of its sales from innovative products and remains focused on high margin private channel vaccine market in India led by Prevenar13. As Pfizer enjoys access to new product pipeline of its parent, we remain optimistic of Prevenar20 launch in India soon. We maintain BUY, with a revised target price of Rs5,790 (36x Sep’24E EPS).
Major brands’ growth continues to drive future earnings
Revenue in Q2FY23 came flat on YoY and grew 8% QoQ to Rs6.4bn. while key acute therapies like vitamins, Nutrition, respiratory, etc have started showing growth in IPM. This growth trend is likely to normalise in FY23 and can expect broader participation across therapies as the economies of scale will
Sustained high margin
Pfizer has maintained its high EBITDA msargins of 36% in Q2FY23 led by cost?efficiencies. While the decline in fixed cost reflects management’s strategy to mitigate inflationary input cost. In inflationary input cost, Pfizer’s raw material cost declined by 3% YoY and increased marginally QoQ by 4% to Rs 2.2 bn coupled with no major price erosion in base products leading to increase in gross profit. Higher gross profit uplifted EBITDA margins. We believe EBITDA margins will sustain above 30% due to various levers like pick?up in key therapies like vaccines, vitamins & Nutrition, Gastrointestinal, etc. on account of lower base, NLEM and non?NLEM price hikes and easing of input cost
Vaccine opportunity
We believe the Covid?19 vaccine distribution in India would be under the listed entity. While we await more clarity, we believe the pediatric vaccine segment still have some opportunity for the Indian market if made available in India. Prevnar?20 is approved globally and could help the existing franchise along with the adult vaccine segment
Valuation and risk
Pfizer’s management is hopeful of achieving in?line or slightly better growth than its MNC peers. Pfizer expects better performance from recently?launched Zavicefta and Zinforo along with Minipress, Meronem and Eliquis. The Mylan?Upjohn deal has been completed at a valuation of 2.5x sales. We believe FY23 could be face high base amid pandemic two waves demands while recovery of the hospital brands could support the base growth. Also, with the exit of Upjohn and CH brands, margins could be better. We do not see major risk on Prevenar? 13 from the DPCO perspective, given NLEM revision draft and additional approval of Prevenar?20 globally. We maintain BUY, with a revised TP of Rs5,790. At CMP of Rs4,309, the stock trades at 33x FY23E EPS of Rs132.7 and 29x FY24E EPS of Rs149.
Valuations
We maintain BUY, with a revised TP of Rs5,790. At CMP of Rs4,309, the stock trades at 33x FY23E EPS of Rs132.7 and 29x FY24E EPS of Rs149.1
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