01-01-1970 12:00 AM | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Buy Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd For Target Rs.1,226 - Motilal Oswal
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Auto business

* Open bookings at over 140k (excl. Scorpio-N), with 79k for XUV700, 25k for Thar, 13k for XUV300, 15k for Bolero and 7k for old Scorpio. Despite 2 year wait period, XUV700 is clocking bookings of 10.3k/month.

* Scorpio-N is bringing in new customers, as reflected in a) more urban salience for the new model (77% vs 45% for old mode), b) shift in regions towards South (17% for new vs 3% for old) and West (28% for new vs 21% for old).

* It is looking to substantially expand capacities in phases (didn’t disclose details), as it doesn’t want to have waiting period beyond 3-4 months. It will have to balance out capacities between EVs and ICE. Supply issues have resulted in loss of 10% of production.

* Cancellation rates are at 10-12%, which suggests that the double booking wouldn't be very high. Since there is KYC of each and every customers who have booked the vehicle, it doesn't see double bookings to be more than 5-10%.

* It doesn’t have many new ICE SUVs in next 12 months, except refresh of Scorpio Classic in Aug-22 and some pick-ups.

Tractor/FES business

Tractor industry to see 3-5% growth for FY23E, as despite near normal monsoon and similar acreage close to last year there are risks in form of a) unfavorable terms of trades for farmers, and b) lower government spending on agriculture and rural.

* There is an excess rain in west and south but deficient in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Reservoir levels at 57% of the live capacity; higher than average by 39%. Acreages are just 2% lower than FY22 and are at 74% of normal area sown.

* Tractor segment margins were impacted by cost inflation and adverse model mix. ? FES subsidiaries continue to deliver positive PBIT for 8th consecutive quarters

Others

* RM cost benefit will reflect in 3Q, as they have inventory and contracts, and hence benefit wouldn't be much in 2Q. While steel prices will come down in 2Q, model mix would be adverse at least till 2QFY23 (due to price protection guarantee for XUV700 and Scorpio-N).

* It has taken price hikes of 1.5-2.5% in both businesses in 2QFY22.

* Peugeot was initially categorized as category A. However, Covid has hurt them fairly hard, impacting performance badly. Since performance parameters have not been met in time bound manner, it is under review now.

* Pininfarina: It is clear that it is not invest beyond Batista (hyper EV). It will look to bring in investors to funds for future models.

 

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