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Indian markets ended marginally higher on Thursday despite weak global cues. Markets remained shut on Friday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. Today, the start of new week is likely to be pessimistic amid weakness in the global peers and rising crude prices. Traders will be concerned as a periodic labour force survey by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that unemployment rate for all ages in urban areas rose to 10.3 per cent in October-December 2020 as compared to 7.9 per cent in the corresponding months a year ago. Some cautiousness may come as India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said that salaried and wages earners will be a drag on overall economic recovery in medium term due to tepid recovery of household consumption. However, some respite may come later in the day as Industrial production surged 11.5 per cent in July mainly due to a low-base effect and good performance by manufacturing, mining and power sectors but the output remained slightly below the pre-pandemic level. Traders may be getting encouragement as a survey by industry chamber FICCI said the outlook for increased manufacturing activities in the second quarter of this fiscal has been significantly improved, though the cost of doing business and production is rising. Sentiments may get optimism as RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said many fast indicators are showing an uptick in economic activity and the Reserve Bank is quite optimistic about its 9.5 per cent GDP growth estimate for FY2021-22 at present. Some support will come as India Exim Bank said the country’s merchandise exports will grow 33 per cent to amount to $98.45 billion in the second quarter of FY 2021-22. Additionally, as per NSDL data, foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have so far made a total net investment of Rs 7,575 crore in India so far in September. Meanwhile, the commerce ministry's investigation arm DGTR has recommended the imposition of anti-dumping duty on certain aluminium products from China to guard domestic manufacturers from cheap imports. There will be some buzz in power stocks as power ministry data showed that India's power consumption grew 5.45 per cent in the first week of September to 27.41 billion units (BU), showing consistent recovery after easing of lockdown curbs by states. Banking stocks will be in focus as Fitch Ratings said Indian banks' improved performance for the financial year ended March 2021 (FY21) is in contrast to the stress evident from extension of Covid-19-related relief measures to borrowers. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks as industry body ISMA said India, the world's second largest sugar producer, can export 6 million tonne of the sweetener in the 2021-22 season commencing next month, taking advantage of the firm global market.

The US markets ended lower on Friday as Technology stocks did the most to weigh down the market. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as investors monitored Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong.

Back home, oscillating between minor gains and losses, Indian equity benchmarks once again closed flat but with marginal gains on Thursday as weekly index futures and options contracts expired. Markets started the session slightly in red tracking negative cues from global markets. Traders remained cautious with a report by India Ratings and Research stating that India Inc resorted to salary cuts to protect their profits in the June quarter, as revenues came under pressure due to the second pandemic wave that affected nearly the entire country. It added the weak wage growth will prove to be a drag on the overall economic recovery in the medium term as it will affect household consumption. Sentiments remained in lackluster mood amid reports that with goods and services tax (GST) officers under pressure to exceed the Rs 1-trillion collection mark per month, industry has faced a barrage of recovery notices and summons issued over the last one month across sectors. Industry bodies have claimed harassment by field officers, blocking of input tax credit, cancellation of GST registration, threats of arrest and steep penalties, impacting their working capital and operations. Traders took note of report that Mumbai has recorded 530 new cases of Covid-19: the highest since mid-July. However, last minute buying helped benchmark indices eke out gains and close mildly higher. Traders found some solace as S&P Global Ratings said India is expected to post strong economic growth in the coming quarters, even as inflation, led by food prices, is likely to remain elevated. It said the economy is expected to clock 9.5 per cent growth in the current fiscal year, followed by 7 per cent expansion in the next year. Some support also came with private survey stating that India Inc's business sentiments are drawing closer to pre-pandemic levels, hinting at a more robust performance in the next quarter. A survey, with over 3,700 respondents across digital platforms, found that transparent taxation has been one of the most significant initiatives of the government followed by the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme, equalisation levy and new labour codes. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 54.81 points or 0.09% to 58,305.07 and the CNX Nifty was up by 15.75 points or 0.09% to 17,369.25.  

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