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Sensex (66385) / Nifty (19672)

The week began with the Indian equity markets opening flat due to a lack of significant triggers in the morning. As the day progressed, Nifty experienced choppy moves within a 100-point range. Eventually, during the second half the inclination was on the lower side, as Nifty ended with a loss of 0.37%, just above 19650.

This is the second consecutive session of decline for Nifty, the first instance since the sharp upward movement that started from the swing lows of around 18600. While the bulls have lost momentum, the higher time frame still shows a strong bullish trend, and these corrections should be viewed as healthy for the overall bullish trend. However, in the short term, considering the overbought conditions, we may witness further correction and increased volatility due to key global events lined up. It's important to avoid undue risk in such scenario and consider booking profits in case of any immediate bounce. The next crucial support levels for Nifty are around 19550 - 19500, representing the 61.8% retracement levels of the recent rally, followed by strong support at the 20EMA around 19450 levels. Re-entering long positions in the range of 19450 - 19550 would be ideal, and a significant sell-off would only be triggered if this range is broken. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 19800 - 19880, with 20000 posing a significant challenge for the bulls to overcome in the current monthly expiry.

Nifty Bank Outlook (45923)

Bank Nifty showed a slight positive start to the week, but there was no subsequent buying momentum, causing it to trade within a range similar to the benchmark index. The latter half of the day witnessed weakness, leading to a 0.33% cut in prices, ending just below the 46000 mark.

The major indices appear to be going through a correction phase, with the benchmark index is undergoing a price-wise correction, this high beta index is experiencing a time-wise correction. Looking ahead, this correction is likely to persist due to the indicators still being in the overbought zone. Moreover, considering the upcoming monthly expiry and important global events lined up, increased volatility can be expected. In this situation, the recommended strategy would be to buy during dips and take profits at higher levels. It's essential to keep an eye on key support levels at 45600 - 45500, while the resistance levels at 46300 - 46500 are likely to persist.

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