Add Bata India Ltd For Target Rs. 1,860 - Centrum Broking
Complete recovery remains alluded
Bata India recorded an above estimate sales growth of 35% YoY to Rs8.3bn. Sales grew by 15% (+6?7% volume growth) over pre?pandemic quarter of 2QFY20. Growth was witnessed across all its trade channels. The momentum for franchise & MBO expansion and sneakerization remained healthy. Gross margins though improved by 210bps YoY but remained 150bps below 2QFY20 margins. Led by higher other operating expenses, EBITDA margins declined to 19.4%, well below 2QFY20 level of 25.7%. Though Bata’s performance is improving over pre?pandemic quarters its slower (in?line to our expectations) and below its peer – Metro Brands. Dichotomy between top?line growth over margin improvement continues to be there. We remain cautious on the margins front hence, decrease our EPS estimates by 9% each for FY23/24 and roll forward to FY25. We now value the business lower at 45x (48x earlier) 1HFY25 eps with revised TP of Rs1860 (Rs1944 earlier). Given the sharp fall in price (?14% in last 3 months), we upgrade from REDUCE to ADD rating.
Growth led by Sneakerization, footprint expansion and e?com Sneakers sales grew by healthy 2.3x YoY which in turn also aids the ASP growth. Bata is rapidly pushing its sneakerization strategy as it has now put up 250 Sneaker Studios across India from 125 as at 1QFY23. North Star and Power brands are leading the Sneakers category. Another lever for growth has been franchisee store and SIS (Shop in Shop) led expansion. Franchisee stores have increased from ~170 to 353 and SIS stores have increase from 136 to 311 over the FY20?1QFY23. Sales from e?commerce achieved its highest quarterly revenue of Rs0.95bn contributing 11% to sales (up 2.3x YoY).
MBO expansion underway MBO business includes wholesale and SIS business. Wholesale business is the large part of MBO contribution while SIS at this point remains minuscule. Bata has increased town coverage from 687 to 1108 while its access to wholesale distributors has improved from 19% to 42% over FY19?1Q23. Despite the aforementioned measures we estimate MBO’s contribution stands at 13?15% (+200?300bps pre?pandemic). We maintain that it is going to be difficult to maintain brand equity and at the same time grow through MBO route.
Volumes recovery on a slow trajectory Bata’s sales volumes grew by 19% in FY22 to 38mn pieces vs FY21. However, these is still ~23% below FY20 volumes. In 2Q, as per the management volumes grew by ~6?7%. Office footwear grew 8% over pre?pandemic. Low priced SKUs are still under pressure. Also, since growth is led by franchisee stores there will be gap between volume and value growth. We estimate CAGR 4% volume growth over FY20?25E.
Valuation We remain cautious on the margins front hence, decrease our EPS by 9% each for FY23/24 and roll forward to FY25. We now value the business lower at 45x (48x earlier) 1HFY25 eps. Given the sharp fall in price (?25% in last 1 year), we upgrade from REDUCE to ADD rating with revised TP of Rs1860 (Rs1944 earlier).We believe positives for next two years are broadly factored in to the current market price.
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