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The trend of change in the Government of Rajasthan every five years since 1998 is likely to continue as the ABP News-CVoter’s (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) first opinion poll has predicted a comfortable majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the forthcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections.

As per the ABP News-CVoter survey, BJP is likely to win 109 -119 seats with a vote share of 45.8%, while the incumbent Congress (INC) Government is likely to win 78 – 88 seats with a vote share of 41%. BSP is likely to win 0-2 seats with a vote share of 0.7% and ‘Others’ are predicted to win 1-5 seats with 12.5% vote share.

During the ABP News-CVoter poll in the State, the respondents were also asked about some of the issues in the State and the country. One of the questions posed was about their preferred choice of Chief Minister. To this 35% of people favoured Ashok Gehlot (INC), 25% favoured BJP candidate Vasundhara Raje, 19% favoured Sachin Pilot (INC), 9% voted for Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, 5% voted for Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore (BJP) while 7% voted for ‘Others’ as their preferred choice for CM.

On the question of the most important issues faced by its people, 28% respondents said it is the issue of ‘Rising Prices’ while 27% said it is ‘Unemployment’. This was followed by ‘Corruption’ (10%), ‘Family Income/Poverty’ (6%) and other issues like ‘Electricity, Road, Water, Population, and Agriculture’ (29%).

On being asked how satisfied the people of Rajasthan are with the works of the Central Government led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 45% respondents said that they are ‘very much satisfied’ while 32% said that they are ‘satisfied to some extent’. 21% said that they are ‘not at all satisfied’ with the works of the Central Government. 

Further, on the question of how satisfied they are with the work of the PM Narendra Modi, 55% respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’ with his work. 27% said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ whereas 17% said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.

Similarly, when asked how satisfied the people of Rajasthan are with the performance of the State Government, 39% respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’, 36% said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ and 24% said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.

ABP News-CVoter also carried out a Snap Poll in the state. As per the Snap Poll findings, 76.5% BJP voters said they believe that PM Modi’s visit to Rajasthan on July 27 & 28 will help the BJP in the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly Elections, while 18.1% BJP voters said that it will not help the party to win the elections. On being asked the same question, 39.6% Congress voters said that PM Modi’s visit will help the BJP to win the elections while 50% Congress voters did not agree with the same.

When asked if BJP should project CM’s face in Rajasthan: 61.7% BJP voters said ‘YES’ while 27.5% said ‘NO’. On the same question, 46.7% Congress voters said ‘YES’ and 34.8% said ‘NO’.

On the question of who the CM face from the Congress side should be, in the forthcoming elections, 33.3% BJP voters favoured Ashok Gehlot, 30.9% favoured Sachin Pilot and 28.1% said they would neither favour Ashok Gehlot nor Sachin Pilot as Congress’s CM face. When the same question was posed to the Congress voters, 54.7% favoured Ashok Gehlot, 28% favoured Sachin Pilot and 13.5% said they favour neither Ashok Gehlot nor Sachin Pilot.

Reacting on the recent announcement made by the Congress that its two leaders – Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot will contest the elections unitedly, respondents were asked if this pact can prove to be a masterstroke for the Congress party. To this, 37.1% BJP voters said ‘YES’ and 41.8% said ‘NO’. Responding to the same question, 58.6% Congress voters said ‘YES’ while 23.1% said ‘NO’.

As part of the ABP News-CVoter Snap Poll, the respondents were also asked if they think that the Rajasthan Government's scheme to provide cooking gas cylinders for Rs. 500 to the beneficiaries of Ujjwala Yojana and BPL card holders will help the Congress party in the Assembly elections. To this, 39.1% BJP voters said ‘YES’ whereas 52.6% said ‘NO’. While 67.6% Congress voters believe that this scheme will help its party win the elections. However, there are 23.7% Congress voters who believe this won’t help the Congress party.                               

Methodology:

This poll is based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide and represents all segments.

Time frame: 26^th June - 25^th July

MOE (Margin of Error)

Sample Size of Opinion Poll (Seat Range and Vote Share - Rajasthan): 14085 respondents

Sample Size of Snap Poll (Rajasthan): 1885

LS Seats Covered – 25

VS Seats Covered – 200

MOE +/- 3% to +/- 5%

Confidence Level – 95%

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