Silver trading range for the day is 252010-274880 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold rallied 1.24% to settle at Rs.1,58,755, supported by a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to a near one-month low after weaker core retail sales data and downward revisions to prior months. Softer economic readings reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward rate cuts later in 2026, with markets pricing in at least two 25-basis-point reductions. However, Fed officials struck a cautious tone. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized that further cuts would require clear labor market weakness, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled that rates may remain steady for an extended period as policymakers assess inflation and growth trends. On the demand side, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 15 consecutive months, lifting holdings to 74.19 million fine troy ounces. China’s total gold reserves rose to $369.58 billion. While overall Chinese gold consumption declined 3.57% in 2025, investment demand surged, with bar and coin purchases up 35% and ETF holdings sharply higher. In India, physical premiums eased significantly due to volatility, whereas Chinese premiums strengthened ahead of the Lunar New Year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.26%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.1,57,420, followed by Rs.1,56,085. Resistance stands at Rs.1,60,170, with a potential upside toward Rs.1,61,585 on a sustained breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 156085-161585.
* Gold gained after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to a near one-month low.
* The US economy likely added 130K payrolls in January 2026, much higher than a downwardly revised 48K rise in December.
* Dallas Fed’s Logan says further rate cuts need clear labor market weakness
Silver
Silver surged 4.15% to settle at Rs.2,63,018, driven by renewed safe-haven demand after weak U.S. retail sales data highlighted slowing consumer momentum. The disappointing numbers, along with fading confidence in dollar-denominated assets amid policy uncertainty in Washington, encouraged investors to rotate into precious metals. Markets are currently pricing in around 60 basis points of Federal Reserve easing by year-end. That said, sentiment remains cautious following sharp swings in the metals market over the past two weeks, including a speculative spike and a steep correction. Labor market data offered a mixed picture. The U.S. economy is estimated to have added 130,000 jobs in January, rebounding from December’s downwardly revised 48,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Even so, concerns about broader economic momentum continue to underpin bullion. On the supply side, physical tightness remains a key theme. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to near decade lows, down more than 88% from their 2021 peak. London vault holdings also slipped marginally in January. Technically, the rally was supported by short covering, with open interest falling 0.78%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.2,57,515, followed by Rs.2,52,010. Resistance stands at Rs.2,68,950, and a sustained move above this level could target Rs.2,74,880.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 252010-274880.
* Silver rose as disappointing US economic data and deteriorating confidence in US assets boosted safe-haven demand.
* Global silver demand is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2026.
* Total global silver supply is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent in 2026, reaching a decade high of 1.05 billion ounces.
Crude oil
Crude oil settled 1.66% higher at Rs.5,896, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and signs of firm demand. The market reacted to reports that the U.S. could take a tougher stance on Iran, including intercepting tankers if nuclear negotiations fail. While initial talks appeared constructive, traders remain wary that any breakdown could disrupt Iranian supplies and tighten global availability. At the same time, inventory data painted a mixed picture. An industry report showed a sharp 13.4 million barrel build in U.S. crude stockpiles, the largest since November 2023. Official EIA data confirmed a sizable 8.5 million barrel increase, with stocks at Cushing also rising. Gasoline inventories climbed by 1.2 million barrels, while distillates fell by 2.7 million barrels. Refinery utilization slipped to 89.4%, and net crude imports increased. On the supply side, U.S. production is projected near record highs around 13.6 million bpd, while global output is expected to outpace demand through 2027. However, the IEA slightly raised its 2026 demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 4.67% to 12,620 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs.5,824, with a break potentially testing Rs.5,752. Resistance stands at Rs.5,972, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward Rs.6,048.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5752-6048.
* Crude oil prices gained buoyed by potential supply risks should U.S.–Iran tensions escalate.
* Venezuelan oil output could return to pre – blockade level by mid – 2026, EIA says
* EIA sees 2026 world oil demand of 104.8 mln bpd, vs prior forecast 104.8 mln bpd; sees 2027 demand of 106.1 mln bpd
Natural gas
Natural gas ended marginally lower at Rs.288.5, slipping 0.07% as updated forecasts called for warmer weather and softer demand over the next two weeks. After a stretch of extreme cold, temperatures across most of the U.S. are expected to stay above normal through February 25, easing heating demand, although parts of the Northeast may remain colder for a few more days. On the supply side, production remains strong. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 107.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, though still below December’s record 109.7 bcfd. Demand, including exports, is projected to drop sharply from 141.1 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week. Storage data continues to reflect recent weather volatility. Utilities withdrew a record 360 bcf for the week ended January 30, significantly higher than the five-year average draw of 190 bcf. Inventories now stand at 2.463 tcf, about 1% below the five-year average. The EIA expects dry gas production to climb to 110 bcfd in 2026, while demand is projected to remain broadly steady. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9.74% to 15,654 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs.280.8, with a break potentially testing Rs.273. Resistance stands at Rs.293.7, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.298.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 273-298.8.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Average gas output climbed to 107.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.
* Energy firms pulled a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand.
Copper
Copper settled 1.16% higher at Rs.1,247.9, supported by supply-side concerns and resilient global demand even as China prepares to pause for the Lunar New Year holiday. Production disruptions continued to lend support. Chile’s Collahuasi mine reported a 12.1% year-on-year drop in December output to 36,200 tons, while Escondida saw production fall 16.5% to 111,500 tons. Peru’s copper output also declined 11.2% in November to 216,152 metric tons, highlighting tightening mine supply from key producers. At the same time, inventory data presents a mixed picture. LME warehouse stocks climbed to 189,100 tons, the highest since May, while SHFE inventories rose to 248,911 tons, their highest since March. Comex inventories remain at record highs with steady inflows. The International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-ton global surplus in November, widening from October, with output exceeding consumption. However, China’s plan to expand strategic reserves and Cochilco’s upward revision of its 2026 price forecast to $4.95 per pound reflect expectations of firm long-term demand, particularly from energy transition projects and AI-driven infrastructure. Technically, fresh buying is evident, with open interest up 3.76% to 16,465 lots. Immediate support lies at Rs.1,230.4, with a break potentially testing Rs.1,212.7. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,268.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.1,289.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1212.7-1289.1.
* Copper prices rose as top consumer China prepares to shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday.
* Chilean mine Collahuasi copper production down 12.1% y/y in December at production of 36,200 tons - Cochilco
* Chilean mine Escondida copper production down 16.5% in December at production of 111,500 tons - Cochilco
Zinc
Zinc settled 0.98% higher at Rs.328.95, supported by near-term supply disruptions and still-constructive demand expectations. With the Lunar New Year approaching, a zinc mine in Southwest China suspended operations in early February and is likely to resume in March, reducing zinc concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes of metal content. A lead-zinc mine in Central China has also halted production for the holidays, potentially trimming another 1,000 tonnes. However, gains remain capped by softer downstream demand. Chinese buyers have largely completed pre-holiday restocking, and consumption has slowed, raising the likelihood of inventory builds during the seasonal lull. Additional pressure stems from weak economic data in China, although the central bank has pledged stronger financial support to boost domestic demand and innovation. On the supply side, China turned a net exporter of refined zinc in November and December, shipping 78,500 tonnes in Q4. Meanwhile, refined zinc output hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, taking full-year 2025 production to 7.41 million tonnes. Globally, the zinc market posted a 7,700-tonne deficit in November, though it remains in surplus year-to-date. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 11.39% to 2,784 lots. Support is seen at Rs.326, with a break toward Rs.322.9. Resistance stands at Rs.332.1, and a move above could test Rs.335.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 322.9-335.1.
* Zinc gains as investors saw supply concerns and demand prospects remain supportive for the metal.
* As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, a zinc mine in Southwest China suspended production in early February.
* China turned net exporter of refined zinc in November and December after a vicious squeeze on the LME contract in October.
Aluminium
Aluminium ended 0.75% higher at Rs.313.85, supported by tightening global supply and improving demand signals. Sentiment was boosted after Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150 per ton from $2,575, citing low global inventories, concerns over power availability for new Indonesian smelters, and firm demand growth. Production disruptions in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia have further tightened near-term supply. At the same time, macro indicators from China offered support. The country’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January, its fastest expansion in three months, helped by stronger output and new orders. The PBOC has also maintained an accommodative stance, trimming the one-year MLF rate to a record 1.5% and signaling further reserve requirement and rate cuts in 2026 to support liquidity and growth. However, upside may be capped by rising inventories. Post-Lunar New Year social stocks in China are expected to hit a three-year high. December refined aluminium output reached a record 3.87 million tons, taking 2025 production above 45 million tons. SHFE inventories climbed 13.1% last week, while stocks at major Japanese ports rose 1.5%. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 5.86% to 3,745 lots. Support is at Rs.311.8, below which Rs.309.7 could be tested. Resistance stands at Rs.316.1, and a breakout may lead to Rs.318.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 309.7-318.3.
* Aluminium gains as tightening global supply coincided with growing demand.
* Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half outlook for the light metal to $3,150 a ton from $2,575, attributing the hike to low global inventories.
* China’s refined aluminium production maintained a steady trajectory in December 2025, reaching a record 3.87 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices fell 2.51% to settle at Rs.15,710, pressured by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next 10–15 days. Improved acreage, supported by favourable rains during sowing, has also weighed on sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried output is pegged at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags. However, irregular rains and disease issues, particularly in Maharashtra, have caused localized yield losses of 15–20%, limiting the overall supply increase. Lower carry-forward stocks and reduced holdings by farmers and stockists are also cushioning the downside. Demand remains encouraging. Exports during April–November 2025 rose nearly 5% year-on-year, with strong buying from Europe and the U.S., while imports declined sharply by over 44%. Quality concerns in Indonesia and rising IPM-compliant output in India are supporting export-grade demand. In Nizamabad, spot prices eased 0.54% to Rs.15,968.75. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, though open interest remained unchanged. Immediate support is seen at Rs.15,466, with further downside toward Rs.15,220. Resistance is placed at Rs.16,104, and a break above could push prices toward Rs.16,496.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15220-16496.
* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.
* However, downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15968.75 Rupees dropped by -0.54 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices declined 2.25% to settle at Rs.22,995, mainly due to profit booking as fresh arrivals from the new crop began entering select mandis. Arrivals are expected to gather pace from March, which has added near-term pressure. Comfortable supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate carry-forward stocks have also weighed on sentiment. In Unjha, spot prices eased 0.45% to Rs.23,120.95. However, the downside appears limited. Gujarat has witnessed one of its slowest sowing seasons in recent years, with acreage down over 14% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares. Weather disruptions and delayed sowing have raised concerns about output. Current production estimates are pegged at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags, with a significant carry-forward expected. Globally, lower output estimates from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan may tighten overall supply, though export demand remains price-sensitive. April–November exports fell over 10% year-on-year, despite improved November shipments. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.23%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.22,790, with further downside toward Rs.22,570. Resistance stands at Rs.23,340, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.23,670.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22570-23670.
* Jeera dropped due to profit booking as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23120.95 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.
