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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 58526 as the dollar held steady after authorities and regulators gave assurances that the broader financial system is sound. On Monday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said First Citizens BancShares Inc would acquire Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans. In Europe, Deutsche Bank shares rose more than 3%, after the cost of insuring Deutsche Bank's debt against the risk of default surged to the highest on record on Friday. The price of gold is more than 7% higher this month, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the recent banking turmoil in the US and Europe raised fears of an economic recession. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in February rose by about 192% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 64.878 tonnes in February, compared with 22.24 tonnes in January, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were up about 185% at 65.552 tonnes. Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer the steepest discounts in over a year to lure buyers put off by a record surge in local prices, while the banking crisis fueled steady demand in top buyer China. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -18.71% to settle at 4811 while prices are down -747 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58184 and below same could see a test of 57842 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59089, a move above could see prices testing 59652.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 57842-59652.
* Gold fell as risk sentiment improves
* The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said First Citizens BancShares Inc would acquire SILICON Valley Bank's deposits and loans
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong surge in February

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 69926 as government measures to stabilize the financial sector appeared to calm investors' fears for the time being. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said on Monday that First Citizens BancShares Inc will buy Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans. In Europe, Deutsche Bank shares gained more than 3% as the cost of insuring Deutsche Bank's debt against default hit a new high on Friday. The dollar rose, bouncing back from recent losses, amid hopes the Fed will continue with its monetary tightening to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve raised rates by an expected quarter of a percentage point, but signalled it was on the verge of pausing. The number of Americans submitting new jobless claims fell slightly last week, indicating that the recent financial market instability caused by the demise of two regional banks was having little effect on the economy. The Labor Department reported that initial applications for state unemployment benefits declined 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ending March 18. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the stress in the banking sector will abate, and the Fed needs to push interest rates higher than previously expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.49% to settle at 13505 while prices are down -485 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69594 and below same could see a test of 69263 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70332, a move above could see prices testing 70739.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69263-70739.
* Silver fell amid measures to calm investors' fears.
* The U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council said the U.S. banking system was "sound and resilient"
* Fed’s Bullard said that the stress in the banking sector will abate, and the Fed needs to push interest rates higher than previously expected.

Crude

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 4.36% at 5978 amid supply worries after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he will station tactical nuclear weapons in neighbor and ally Belarus. Oil production in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region (KRI) is at risk after a halt in northern exports has forced firms operating there to divert crude to storage, where capacity is limited. Iraq was forced to halt around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports from the KRI through an export pipeline that runs from its northern Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. China's oil refinery throughput this year is forecast to rise 7.8%, according to a think tank of state energy group CNPC, reversing last year's decline as the world's second-largest oil consumer is set for a recovery in fuel demand. Refinery throughput is estimated to reach 733 million tonnes, or 14.66 million barrels per day (bpd), for 2023, China National Petroleum Corporation's (CNPC) Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said in its annual industry outlook. With Beijing determined to revive its sagging economy after lifting COVID-19 controls last December, Chinese refined fuel consumption is expected to rebound with top refiner Sinopec separately predicting a 3.3% increase in its annual throughput this year. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.12% to settle at 7592 while prices are up 250 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5793 and below same could see a test of 5607 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6082, a move above could see prices testing 6185.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5607-6185.
* Crude oil prices traded higher on supply worries
* Iraqi Kurdistan region's oil output at risk after Turkey halts pipeline exports
*Moscow close to achieving 500,000 bpd output cut

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.42% at 185 pressured by persistently weak demand due to above-normal temperatures and ample inventories. Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet on March 17, according to the EIA, the highest for the time of year since 2020. Meanwhile, natural gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas became operational again. Still, Freeport LNG unexpectedly canceled some cargoes due to issues with one of the plant's three liquefaction trains, sparking some worries that it could take longer than the company expects to return to full service. Natural gas inventories are nearing the end of winter well above average, causing futures prices to slump close to their lowest level in real terms in three decades. Despite several days of shattering cold immediately before Christmas, the winter was fairly mild across the main population centres of the United States, depressing gas consumption. Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet on March 17, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the highest for the time of year since 2020 and before that 2017. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 49.59% to settle at 33578 while prices are down -10.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 180.9 and below same could see a test of 176.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.1, a move above could see prices testing 199.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 176.8-199.2.
* Natural gas hits lowest level since Sept 2020
* Prices dropped pressured by persistently weak demand due to above-normal temperatures and ample inventories.
*Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet on March 17, the highest for the time of year since 2020

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.47% at 775.7 as the People's Bank of China officially lowered RRR, which is expected to release 600 billion yuan of funds. Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have slumped to 161,152 tonnes from 252,455 tonnes in late February as demand has recovered. Still, looming threats of low supply kept copper prices nearly 7% higher year-to-date. Mining exports from major producer Peru sank almost 20% annually in January due to the widespread protests, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange tumbled 36% since their peak in February. Depleting stocks worldwide drove key commodity trader Trafigura to forecast copper prices will reach a record high this year, while supply and demand imbalances led Goldman Sachs to expect the global shortage of visible copper inventories by September. Key commodities trader Trafigura forecasts copper prices will hit a record high this year, while Goldman Sachs predicts a global shortfall of visible copper stockpiles by September due to depleting supplies worldwide. According to the International Copper Study Group's (ICSG) latest monthly report, the world's refined copper market had a 103,000 tonne surplus in January, up from a 10,000 tonne surplus the previous month. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.03% to settle at 3807 while prices are up 3.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 771.1 and below same could see a test of 766.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 778.4, a move above could see prices testing 781.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 766.4-781.
* Copper gains as PBOC lowered RRR, expected to release 600 billion yuan of funds
* Copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange tumbled 36% since their peak in February.
* S&P: Our growth prediction of 5.5% for China this year is higher than the country's aim of roughly 5%.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 256.05 as power rationing in Yunnan still persists as some enterprises in Wenshan have also received notices of power restriction. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. An over-supplied zinc concentrate market in China had pushed spot treatment charges (TCs) to 5,100 yuan ($742) a tonne in January-February, as miners were prepared to pay more for smelters to process the excess of material into refined metal. SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10, exchange data showed, correlating with the ramp-up at smelters. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 100,500 tonnes in December. The deficit of 18,300 tonnes in January compares with a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in the same month last year, ILZSG data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 33.04% to settle at 2605 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 254.5 and below same could see a test of 252.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 257.4, a move above could see prices testing 258.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 252.9-258.7.
* Zinc gains as power rationing in Yunnan still persists
* China's zinc treatment charges fall from multi – year high as smelters ramp up
* Global zinc market deficit slides to 18,300 T in January – ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 206.45 as consumption continued to pick up, driving domestic aluminium ingot social inventory to fall rapidly. On the fundamentals, the resumption of production by aluminium smelters in Sichuan, Guizhou and other places has led to a slight recovery on the supply side. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 1.13 million mt as of March 23, down 85,000 mt from a week ago and 47,000 mt from Monday March 20. The figure, albeit up 85,000 mt from the same period last year, has fallen 143,000 mt from the peak recorded in early March. Stocks across three major markets dropped sharply, led by south China, where fewer cargoes arrived following output cuts by smelters earlier while demand recovered. After two weeks of accumulation, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory dipped 1,500 mt from a week ago to 167,900 mt as of March 23. Stable aluminium billet production ensured smooth arrivals. More billets flowed to Foshan instead of Wuxi due to widening price difference between the two regions. The imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 81,000 mt in January 2023, down 30.5% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month, according to General Administration of Customs. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.51% to settle at 2975 while prices are up 0.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.9 and below same could see a test of 203.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.6, a move above could see prices testing 208.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.2-208.6.
* Aluminium gains as ingot social inventory to fall rapidly.
* China’s aluminium ingot social inventories stood at 1.13 million mt as of March 23, down 85,000 mt from a week ago
* The output for the months of January and February 2023 was 6.5 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% on year

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.84% at 995.3 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -12.5 Rupees to end at 1175.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.86% to settle at 790 while prices are down -8.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 984.2 and below same could see a test of 973.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1007.1, a move above could see prices testing 1019.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 973.2-1019.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -12.5 Rupees to end at 1175.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 6854 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6977.75 Rupees dropped -17.95 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.69% to settle at 10765 while prices are down -42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6780 and below same could see a test of 6706 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6970, a move above could see prices testing 7086.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6706-7086.
* Turmeric dropped as turmeric harvesting has started and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
*The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6977.75 Rupees dropped -17.95 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 34720 on profit booking after prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply from main producing areas. This year, there is a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera. Cumin harvests in Gujarat are now higher than last year, but recent rains are projected to lower yields by at least 20%. Gujarat produced 2.15 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of cumin in 2023. Currently, over 30% of Gujarat's crop remains unharvested in the districts of Kutch and Banaskantha. Due to unseasonal rain in certain regions, a portion of this crop is likely to be damaged or of low quality. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.15 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.08% to settle at 5667 while prices are down -245 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 34260 and below same could see a test of 33800 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35480, a move above could see prices testing 36240.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 33800-36240.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply
* Support also seen amid a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera
*Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.15 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.