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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 59764 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. The Fed is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday amid strong US economic data and persistent inflationary pressures. Data showed that US consumer sentiment improved in April, while core PCE inflation exceeded forecasts in March. High gold prices kept physical demand tepid in key Asian centres, prompting dealers in India to extend discounts after a key bullion-buying festival spurred limited activity. "Consumers made purchases on Akshaya Tritiya and even a day after the festival", but demand was lower than normal amid record prices. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce over official domestic prices versus $16 discounts last week. Jewellers bought less gold than normal from banks as many retail consumers replaced old jewellery for new. Chinese dealers charged premiums of $2-$9 an ounce over global benchmark spot prices. Turkey’s central bank is offloading its gold reserves to help meet high domestic demand after curbing precious metals imports in February. The central bank's data showed that gold reserves fell 9% in the last seven weeks. Turkey also sold 15 tonnes of gold in March, the World Gold Council reported. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.86% to settle at 14819 while prices are down -155 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59540 and below same could see a test of 59317 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60157, a move above could see prices testing 60551.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59317-60551.
* Gold prices edged lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting
* Fed is widely expected to deliver another 25-basis point rate hike
* High gold prices kept physical demand tepid in key Asian centres, prompting dealers in India to extend discounts

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 75459 gaving up all of its gains as dollar index rose past 102, extending gains for the fourth session, following a better-than-expected PMI reading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. JPMorgan Chase & Co said it would buy most of First Republic Bank's assets after regulators seized the troubled lender at the weekend, marking the third failure of a major U.S. bank in two months. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference to assess if the commentary pushes back market expectations of rate cuts before the year-end amid the recent banking turmoil and threats of an imminent recession. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US was revised lower to 50.2 in April 2023 from a preliminary of 50.4, and compared to 49.2 in March. New orders returned to expansion territory and production increased at the fastest pace since May 2022 while new export orders contracted further. Nonetheless, anticipations of greater future sales led firms to ramp up employment, with the rate of job creation reaching the fastest since September 2022. Despite subdued customer orders and another drop in input buying, suppliers hiked their prices at a steeper rate. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.85% to settle at 17390 while prices are up 40 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74527 and below same could see a test of 73594 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 77122, a move above could see prices testing 78784.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73594-78784.
* Silver gave up all gains as dollar index rose past 102
* The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US was revised lower to 50.2 in April 2023
* JPM buys most of First Republic Bank's assets

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.13% at 6152 as concern over the economic impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates and weaker Chinese manufacturing data outweighed support from new OPEC+ supply cuts taking effect this month. Weak economic data from China was in focus. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, slipping below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a monthly basis. Some support came from voluntary output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, which take effect from May. U.S. field production of crude oil fell in February to 12.483 million barrels per day, the lowest since December 2022, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. product supplied of crude and petroleum products – a proxy for demand – rose to 19.997 million bpd, the highest since November 2022, EIA data showed. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in February fell by 63,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 218,000 bpd, according to data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.2% to settle at 8723 while prices are down -134 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6101 and below same could see a test of 6050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6217, a move above could see prices testing 6282.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6050-6282.
* Crude oil drops on economic growth concerns
* US Fed expected to raise rates by 25 basis points this week
* Latest OPEC+ output cuts of 1.16 mln bpd take effect from Monday

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.56% at 189.8 on rising output and a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in recent days. That price drop came despite forecasts for a little more cold and heating demand next week than previously expected and even as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was still on track to hit a record high for a second month in a row after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.36 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.74 bcfd in March. That was close to the monthly record of 100.45 bcfd in January. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through May 5 before turning near-normal from May 6 to 11. With the weather slowly turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 99.3 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 23.42% to settle at 37316 while prices are down -7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 186.4 and below same could see a test of 183.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.6, a move above could see prices testing 201.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 183.1-201.5.
* Natural gas fell on rising output
* Pressure also seen amid a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants in recent days.
* US utilities added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storag

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.99% at 749.9 as the global copper market is expected to see a deficit this year, steered by improved Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. The ICSG forecast a deficit of about 114,000 tonnes for 2023 compared with a surplus of about 155,000 tonnes expected last October, mainly due to better expectations for Chinese usage. However, "a surplus of about 298,000 tonnes is expected in 2024 as a consequence of additional supply." "The reopening of China after the zero-Covid policy, a recovery in the rest of the world from constrained demand in 2022 and improved economic growth in 2024 are all expected to support usage growth in 2023 and 2024," the organisation said. "Although the global economic outlook is challenging, manufacturing activity is expected to continue rising in most of the key copper end-use sectors." Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell 4.7% in March year-on-year to 440,389 tonnes, the country's INE statistics agency said. However, upside seen limited pressured by the sluggish pace of metals demand recovery in China despite shedding strict COVID-19 restrictions, fears of a recession in Western countries and banking turmoil in the U.S. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.24% to settle at 4862 while prices are up 7.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 741.3 and below same could see a test of 732.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 759.7, a move above could see prices testing 769.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 732.7-769.5.
* Copper gains as market to slip into deficit in 2023 on improved China demand
* Chile's copper output falls 4.7% y/y in March
* However, upside seen limited pressured by the sluggish pace of metals demand recovery in China

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 236.8 as demand fell below expectations amid slow global economy. Global refined zinc market is likely be in a deficit in 2023, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Global demand for refined zinc metal will exceed supply in 2023 with the extent of the deficit currently forecast at a modest 45,000 tonnes, the ILZSG said. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 114,900 mt as of April 28, down 21,600 mt from Monday April 24 and 21,800 mt lower compared with the prior week. In Shanghai, the slump in zinc prices buoyed the purchasing willingness of downstream buyers in addition to their restocking demand, so the inventory in Shanghai dropped sharply. In Guangdong, the market arrivals sank slightly, but the daily outflow from the warehouses steadied at 1,500 mt, leading to a drastic fall in local inventory. In Tianjin, despite the growing arrivals, downstream demand also improved. Therefore, goods holders were keen on selling, and the market transactions were brisk, allowing the inventory in Tianjin to slip. Overall, the total inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin fell 19,500 mt, and that across seven major markets in China was down by 21,600 mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.67% to settle at 3761 while prices are down -0.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 235.7 and below same could see a test of 234.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 238.6, a move above could see prices testing 240.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 234.4-240.2.
* Zinc dropped as demand fell below expectations amid slow global economy
* Global zinc market to be in deficit for 2023
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots in China totalled 114,900 mt, down 21,600 mt

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 210.65 as aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 853,000 mt as of April 27, down 53,000 mt from a week ago and 135,000 mt from the same period last year. The U.S. economy is likely to slow down in the second half of this year or even fall into recession, and the impact of bank financial risks persists. On fundamentals, this week's aluminium ingot inventory and aluminium billet inventory both declined. The operating rate of leading aluminium downstream processing companies continued to pick up, but may drop after the Labour Day holiday. The NBS Composite PMI Output Index in China declined to 54.4 in April 2023 from a record high of 57.0 in the previous month. It was also the lowest figure since January, as factory activity contracted following growth in the prior three months due to slack global demand and persistent property weakness. At the same time, the service sector expanded at a softer pace, despite growing for the fourth successive month. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a four-month low of 49.2 in April of 2023 from 51.9 in March, missing market estimates of 51.4. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.15% to settle at 3003 while prices are up 0.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209 and below same could see a test of 207.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.4, a move above could see prices testing 214.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.2-214.
* Aluminum gains as China’s inventories dropped 53,000 mt from a week ago
* China’s PMI Output Index in China declined to 54.4 in April 2023 from a record high of 57.0 in the previous month.
* China’s Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a four-month low of 49.2 in April of 2023 from 51.9 in March

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 973.7 as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook. Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the firmness in prices. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1152.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.43% to settle at 699 while prices are up 0.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 969.6 and below same could see a test of 965.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 976.5, a move above could see prices testing 979.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.4-979.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1152.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook
* Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the prices
* In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 6728 as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6755.15 Rupees gained 63.85 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.71% to settle at 12140 while prices are up 58 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6648 and below same could see a test of 6568 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6800, a move above could see prices testing 6872.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6568-6872.
* Turmeric rose as crops got damaged due to untimely rains in Andhra Pradesh
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6755.15 Rupees gained 63.85 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.6% at 43735 on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1219.45 Rupees to end at 43319.9 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.57% to settle at 6411 while prices are up 690 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 43115 and below same could see a test of 42490 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44320, a move above could see prices testing 44900.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 42490-44900.
* Jeera crossed 44000 level to on crop worries
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1219.45 Rupees to end at 43319.9 Rupees per 100 kg.

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