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* The conflict intensifies: The clash between Iran and Israel escalated significantly over the weekend, as Iran launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel. This conflict has, in turn, led to the expectation that crude oil, refining GRMs, and spot LNG prices could scale new highs in the near term. While our base case scenario remains that de-escalation efforts will likely control the crisis, in this note, we examine the implications for commodities and stocks if the crisis escalates further.*...
Oil & Gas Sector Update : Iran-Israel conflict could lead to a supply crunch - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
We interacted with branches of Muthoot Finance, Manappuram Finance and Muthoot Fincorp in the outskirts of Mumbai to understand any change in growth and competitive dynamics in the light of recent embargo on IIFL Finance and steep rally in gold prices. The surveyed branches were less enthusiastic about acquiring IIFL customers, cited no easing in competitive intensity and envisaged limited benefits from higher gold prices in the near term. However, they remained sanguine about moderate growth...
Gold Loan NBFCs Sector Update : Likely to shine further - Yes Securities
RuPay to get a boost as dependence on foreign card networks reduceOver the past few months, the RBI has announced several regulatory measures with regard to the functioning of the credit card industry. The measures encompass various changes, including increase in risk-weight, levying of fees and other charges, ban on select banks regarding the origination of co-branded credit cards, and the prohibition of exclusive agreements with co-branded partners. These initiatives are designed to enhance...
Financials Sector Update : Regulatory measures on credit cards to enable long-term sustainable growth - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Key Pointers for Mar?24:* 2Ws - Gudi Padwa festive retails expected to grow in key markets.* PVs ? No substantial change in demand trends vs prior months; average discounts rise across segments MoM.* CVs ? Double digit retail drop expected YoY led by high base due to OBD2; tonnage shift stays favorable.* Tractors ? Festive timing mismatch aggravates inherent weakness.Our interaction with channel partners hints at weak retail demand for Mar?24 YoY: Low to mid-single digit growth for 2Ws, while...
Automobile Sector Update : Festive timing mismatch to dent retails (ex 2W) - Yes Securities
Birla Opus starts on a positive note; APNT takes steps to counterWe visited the markets of Ludhiana, Chandigarh, and Panchkula in Punjab recently to understand trends for paints and the acceptance of the Birla Opus brand. This is our first note in the series, and we subsequently will visit the western and southern markets for insights of a regional nature. Our channel checks show Birla Opus has been well received, as it has achieved a 7-10% dealer penetration in Punjab; there is positive feed...
Paints Sector Update : Demand slows, rivalry grows by Elara Capital
MOFSL coverage universe to clock 5.6%/6.2% YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA Demand trends were steady in 4QFY24, and companies have been focusing on boosting their core portfolios through various initiatives, including distribution expansion, product relaunches, step-up in marketing budgets, etc. Urban markets continued to see improvement, and rural markets have also started witnessing recovery (Dabur?s rural growth was better than urban growth). FY24 was an interim phase when price cuts/consumer...
Consumer Sector Update : On the course of volume pickup - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Stable performance across metrics on loan growthThe key takeaways from the RBI?s release on loans: (1) Loan growth is holding up at ~20% (higher due to the merger of HDFC Ltd with HDFC Bank), which would be weighing down on the various growth metrics until 2QFY25. (2) Private banks are growing faster than public banks. (3) Household demand for loans is holding up relatively well. The intent to lend is still holding up, as there is negligible stress on the balance sheet of all banks. (4) Corpo...
Banking Sector Update : Stable performance across metrics on loan growth by Kotak Institutional Equities
CVs likely to recover post 2HFY25Mar?24 overall dispatches across segments were below est. except for CVs. PV wholesales grew 9% YoY led by sustained outperformance of UVs. 2Ws (BJAUT not reported yet) domestic wholesales declined 2% YoY while exports grew 30% YoY on a low base. CV volumes declined 5.5% YoY with MHCVs declining 8.5% YoY and LCVs declining 1% YoY. Tractors declined 24% YoY on account of weak agri sentiments and festival mismatch (Navratras in Mar?23). We expect domestic 2W ind...
Automobiles Sector Update : Mar`24: Muted growth across segments except PVs - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
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