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Published on 11-07-2025 10:18 am

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty after the initial upmove witnessed profit booking and made lower -high -low throughout the session where intraday pullbacks were short -lived which resulted in a bear candle, signaling extended breather .

* Key point to highlight is that Bank Nifty has not even retraced 38 . 2 % of the prior twelve -session up move over the past six - sessions, indicating a slow, shallow pullback and a strong price structure . The index remains above its 20 -day EMA, a level it has consistently held since April, signaling the bull market template is intact . This, coupled with positive market breadth, supports the ongoing higher -high -low structure, underscoring a well -established uptrend which open the gates towards 58800 levels in coming quarter which is the implied target of the consolidation from (56098-53483). The support base is maintained at 55,500, which represents the 50 % retracement of (53 ,483 –57 ,628 ) and aligns with the 50 -day EMA . Consequently, any dip from current levels could offer fresh buying opportunities .

* Underperforming the benchmark, PSU bank witnessed profit booking for fourth consecutive session, indicating extended breather . After breaking out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May, the index has maintained a higher -high -low structure on the weekly chart, signaling an intact uptrend . While Bank Nifty trades below ~ 1 % from its all -time highs, the PSU Bank index remains about 14 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is the recent swing low and coincides with the 20 -week EMA .

* Structurally, Bank Nifty is undergoing phase -wise expansion, with each rally establishing new price zones of acceptance . Instead of sharp directional moves, the index is progressing through brief consolidations that serve as launchpads for subsequent advances . This transition from volatility -driven swings to range -bound bases suggests increasing market maturity, with demand emerging at higher levels . The narrowing amplitude of corrections indicates that stronger hands are absorbing supply, maintaining trend continuity .

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Published on 11-07-2025 10:17 am

Nifty Bank : 56956

Technical Outlook

Day that was

* The Bank Nifty closed on a negative note for the second consecutive session, closing at 56956 , down 0 .45 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index mirrored this sentiment, and ended on negative note at 28 ,099 , down 0 .48 % .

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Published on 11-07-2025 10:17 am

Technical Outlook:

* Index after the initial gap up opening Nifty faced resistance near 80% retracement of the previous sessions range and made lower-high-low throughout the day. This resulted into the formation of a bear candle, indicating extended breather.

* The index is likely to start the session on a negative note tracking weak earnings from IT heavy. Going ahead, we expect volatility to remain elevated onset of earning season coupled with Tariff related development wherein strong support is placed at 25000-24900 zone. Key point to highlights is that , over past 9 session Nifty is undergoing healthy consolidation as it has merely retraced 38.20% of preceding 10 sessions up move. Slower pace of retracement indicating robust price structure that bodes well for next leg of up move. A decisive close above previous sessions high would be required to pause the ongoing corrective phase and open gate towards the 25800 zone in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on outcome of US-India bilateral trade deal. The better-than-expected outcome would fuel momentum to challenge All Time High in coming month, wherein strong support is placed at 24900. From the seasonality perspective, July has been the favourable month for Nifty since 1991, 71% of the time returns have been positive with an average of 2.5%.

* Structurally, over past three months index has maintained its winning streak while absorbing host of negative news around geo-political uncertainties coupled with clarity of trade tariff. In the process, market breadth has shown gradual improvement as currently ~61% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above 200 days EMA compared to last month's reading of 52% that bodes well for durability of ongoing up move.

* On the broader market front, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices have witnessed flat to negative close underperforming the benchmark and both the indices are now just 3-4% away from their life time highs. Meanwhile, northward inching ratio of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 makes us believe that broader market would continue with its outperformance.

* On the global macro front, weakness in US Dollar index would result into FII's inflow in emerging markets while cool off in Brent crude oil would boost the market sentiment.

* The formation of higher peak and trough makes us maintain our support base at 24900 for the Nifty which is based on 61.8% retracement of recent rally (24473-25654) and 20-day EMA.

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Published on 11-07-2025 10:16 am

Nifty : 25355

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* Indian equity benchmarks closed on a negative note tracking global cues amid tariffs related development for the second straight session and settled at 25355 down 0.47%. Broader markets relatively underperformed the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap indices closed on a negative note. Sectorally, Realty, Metal and Consumer Durable outperformed, while, IT, PSU Bank and Pharma underperformed.

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Published on 11-07-2025 10:04 am

SELL CDSL JULY FUT BELOW 1719.80 SL ABOVE 1745.90 TGT 1705-1682-1660. INTRADAY/ BTST TGT 1714-1712. 31 JULY

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