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ICICI Securities

Published on 19/04/2021 11:00:45 AM

Bank Nifty: Sectoral churning expected to trigger buying in banking…

*The Bank Nifty witnessed a volatile week where moves were seen on both sides. Private leaders continued to witness profit booking but stock like HDFC Bank reverted from their major Put base. However, PSU banks continue to remain laggard and witnessed continued selling pressure

*As technology stocks witnessed profit booking post quarterly numbers of TCS and Infosys, sectoral rotation helped beaten down segment. Banking stocks witnessed some short covering to recover from the lows near 30500. In the last two sessions, fresh long OI build-up was observed as it closed near its sizeable Call base of 32000

*We feel the Bank Nifty should see some pick up in pace at the current juncture and stocks like HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank should do well from current levels. Supportive action is expected from midcap banks like Federal Bank and Bandhan Bank

*On the options front, sizeable Call OI base is placed at 32000 followed by 33000. We feel downside should be limited and recent low should provide cushion. In contrast, a close above 32000 again should trigger a 1000-point rally

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 19/04/2021 11:00:28 AM

Nifty: Sustainability above 14700 may trigger fresh uptrend

*The Nifty recovered towards 14700 last week after witnessing a sharp fall of almost 500 points on Monday. Positive global cues also helped markets to move higher despite fears of fresh lockdowns and a depreciating currency. The Nifty closed the week with a loss of 1.6% while midcap and small cap indices closed the week with loss of almost 3% each. Sustainability of 14700 is expected to lead to a fresh up move

*On the data front, the Nifty has major Call base placed at 14700 strikes with highest Call base placed at 15000 strike for the weekly settlement. On the downside, 14500 remains a crucial support due to continued build-up seen in this strike. Hence, we believe that move above 14700 may trigger upside momentum towards 15000 in the April series

*Sectorally, after significant underperformance was seen from the BFSI space in the last few weeks, some short covering was experienced. We expect banking to take the lead from here onwards. It will be crucial for a market recovery towards 15000 level. Moreover, we may see some consolidation in the technology space post their quarterly results

*The volatility in the markets declined sharply and moved towards 20 levels once again after testing 23 levels on Monday. We expect volatility to remain subdued, which should bode well for the current recovery

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 19/04/2021 10:41:16 AM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks concluded a volatile week on a subdued note as index recouped most of intraweek losses and ended the week at 14636, down 1.35%. In the coming session, index is likely to witness gap down opening below Friday’s low (Spot 14559), indicating corrective bias. Hence, use intraday pullback towards 14560-14585 to create short for target of 14447.

Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 14800- 14250 over past four weeks despite host of negative news flow related with COVID-19 2nd wave. Therefore, either side breakout will decide further directional bias, else prolongation of consolidation amid stock specific action.

Structurally, we believe, any cool off from hereon would get anchored around key support threshold of 14250 which would offer incremental buying opportunity as it is 61.8% retracement of the February rally (13596-15432), at 14297 and past four weeks identical lows placed at 14250.

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 15/04/2021 11:53:00 AM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks regained some of the lost ground on Tuesday as approval to various vaccines lifted sentiment. The Nifty gained 215 points or 1.50% to settle at 14525.

In the coming expiry session, we expect volatility to stay elevated. Index is likely to open on a positive note tracking firm global cues. We expect index to continue with ongoing pullback. Hence, use intraday dip towards 14565-14590 to create l for target of 14679. Going ahead, sustainability above Monday’s high (14700) would indicate conclusion of ongoing consolidation phase, else extended consolidation to continue within 14250-14700 region amid stock specific action.

Hence, buying on declines strategy in quality stocks should work well. Only a decisive close below 14250 would signal an extended profit booking Immediate support for Nifty is placed at 14250 levels while, key structural support is placed at 13800 levels as it is 80% retracement of the February rally (13596-15432), placed at 13963.

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 15/04/2021 11:52:22 AM

Nifty Bank: 31771

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty Bank index snapped a three session loosing streak as it recouped most of its Monday's decline to close higher by 3 % on Tuesday . The pullback was broad based as all the 12 index constituents closed in the green . The Nifty Bank closed the session at 31771 up by 979 points or 3 . 2 % 

* The daily price action formed a strong bull candle with a higher high -low signalling a strong pullback after previous session sharp decline . The index in today’s session is opening on a positive note at the Monday’s gap down area (32330 -31700 ) signalling continuation of the pullback .

* Goining ahead, a close above the Monday’s gap down area will signal a pause in the current corrective trend and will opens upside towards 34000 levels . Failure to do so will lead to a choppy consolidation in the broad range of 32500 -30000 in the coming sessions amid stock specific action ahead of Q 4FY21 result season

* Key observation is that the index in the current bull market that is since March 2020 , has seen two major correction during April and September 2020 . The average of the two correction comes around 21 % . In the current scenario the index has already corrected by 19 % from the all time -high (37708 ) . We expect the index to maintain the same rhythm and hold onto the major support area of 29700 -30000 which also confluence with the 200 days EMA placed around 29750 levels and the previous major low of January 2021 , prior to the union budget is placed around 29687 levels

* W e advise Investor should adopt strategy of utilising the current declines to accumulate quality banking stocks from medium term prospective .

* The last eight weeks corrective decline has lead to the weekly stochastic placed near the oversold territory with a reading of 20 , indicating an impending pullback in the coming weeks .

* In the coming session, the index is expected to open gap up . Volatility is likely to remain high on account of the weekly expiry . The index is expected to continue with its Tuesday’s pullback . Hence after a positive opening use dips towards 31900 -31970 for creating long position for the target of 32180 , maintain a stoploss of 31790

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 15/04/2021 11:51:59 AM

NSE (Nifty): 14505

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks regained some of the lost ground on Tuesday as approval for various vaccines lifted sentiments. The Nifty gained 215 points or 1.40% to settle at 14505. The market breadth turned positive with A/D ratio of 2:1. Sectorally, all major indices ended in the green barring IT and pharma. 

* The Nifty started the session on a flattish note and then traded volatile in the first half of the session. Strong demand across sectors led by beaten down BFSI and auto space led the index higher in the process retracing half the losses of Monday. Consequently, the price action formed an inside day indicating a pause in downward momentum and presence of buying demand for the third time in five weeks around the 14250 mark

* Going ahead, sustainability above Monday’s high (14700) would indicate conclusion of ongoing consolidation phase else there extended consolidation will continue within 14250-14700 region amid stock specific action. Only a decisive close below 14250 would signal an extended profit booking

* The broader market indices have undergone healthy profit booking after approaching their 52 weeks highs. Key point to highlight since March 2020 is that Nifty midcap and small cap indices have maintained the rhythm of not correcting for more than average 9-10% while sustaining above their 50 days EMA, indicating robust price structure. Currently, the past couple of days 7% correction dragged both indices in the vicinity of their 50 days EMA, indicating possibility of couple of percentage correction from here on cannot be ruled out. However, such a correction should be capitalised on to accumulate quality stocks, as we expect broader market indices to maintain aforementioned rhythm of not correcting for more than 9-10%

* Immediate support for the Nifty is at 14250 while key structural support is placed at 13800 levels as it is confluence of:

* a) since March 2020, intermediate corrections in the Nifty have been to the tune of 9-10%. In the current scenario 10% correction will complete around 13900

* b) 80% retracement of the February rally (13596-15432), at 13963 In the coming expiry session, we expect volatility to stay elevated. Index is likely to open on a positive note tracking firm global cues. We expect index to continue with ongoing pullback. Hence, use intraday dip towards 14565-14590 to create l for target of 14679.

 

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