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Published on 15-10-2025 10:50 am

Economic News

* IMF raises India’s FY26 growth outlook to 6.6%: The International Monetary Fund has increased India's economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to 6.6 percent. This positive outlook comes despite recent US tariffs on Indian goods. India is projected to achieve the highest growth rate among advanced economies, emerging markets, and developing countries for the current and next fiscal years.

Global News

* Fed faces a delicate balance as strong growth meets inflation and policy uncertainties: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his final remarks before the Fed’s October meeting amid stronger-than-expected U.S. growth and rising productivity, even as tariffs, immigration policies, and a delayed jobs report create uncertainty for inflation and employment. Markets anticipate a 25-bps rate cut in October and another in December, reflecting divided Fed views some worry inflation will remain above 2%, while others fear a rapid job slowdown. AI-driven investment and other growth drivers support GDP near 4%, though private indicators show hiring softness. Firms have absorbed tariff costs through efficiency gains, temporarily boosting productivity, but inflation risks linger, with forecasts ranging from 2.5% to 3.3% for 2025. Growth remains concentrated in select sectors, raising questions about broader demand and the sustainability of the recovery.

Technical Snapshot

Key Highlights:

NIFTY SPOT: 25145.5 (-0.55%)

TRADING ZONE:

Resistance : 25300 (Pivot Level) and 25500 (Key Resistance)

Support: 25000 (Pivot Level) and 24900 (Key Support).

BROADER MARKET: UNDERPERFORMED MIDCAP 150: 58324.4 (-0.64%),

SMALLCAP 250: 17940.15 (-1.07%)

VIEW: BULLISH TILL ABOVE 24900 (Key Support).

BANKNIFTY SPOT: 56496.45 (-0.2%)

TRADING ZONE:

Resistance: 57000 (Pivot Level) / 57300 (Key Resistance)

Support: 56000 (Pivot Level) / 55700 (Key Support)

VIEW: BULLISH TILL ABOVE 55700 (Key Support)

Government Security Market:

* The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.85%- 5.50% on Tuesday ended at 5.39% .

* The 10 year benchmark (6.33% GS 2035) closed at 6.5063% on Tuesday Vs 6.5198% on Monday .

Global Debt Market:

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors looked toward a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could offer more insights about future monetary policy decisions. The 10-year Treasury fell more than 3 basis points to a onemonth low of 4.017%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was almost 5 basis points lower at 3.478%. The longer maturity 30-year Treasury yield fell over one basis point to 4.615%. The Fed’s Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks at the NABE annual meeting in Philadelphia later in the day. Markets are also keeping a close watch on the developments concerning the recently renewed trade tensions between U.S. and China. “We cannot know when the two sides will negotiate a de-escalation. However, the example from earlier this year shows that neither side is willing to sustain a near complete breakdown in trade which the recent measures imply,” Eastspring Investments wrote in a note published Tuesday. José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, noted that sentiment improved after signs the White House is moving toward dialogue with Beijing, despite lingering strain over rare earth export controls, with further talks expected around this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. A ceasefire deal in Gaza, which included the release of hostages, added to the relief, Torres wrote in a note. On Monday, Palestinian militant group Hamas released the first seven surviving Israeli hostages, marking the first stage of a ceasefire deal brokered with the help of U.S. President Donald Trump.

10 Year Benchmark Technical View :

The 10 year Benchmark (6.33% GS 2035) yield likely to move in the range of 6.4950% to 6.51% level on Wednesday.

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Published on 15-10-2025 10:43 am

Market Outlook

The Nifty 50 settled at 25,145, ending the session on a negative note as selling pressure emerged near the 25,300 level. Derivatives data reflected fresh Call OI build-up at the 25,200 and 25,300 strikes for the upcoming weekly expiry, suggesting a potential hurdle for any move towards 25,500. On the daily chart, the index maintained a sideways to bullish tone as long as the 25,000 level remains intact. However, a decisive break below this key level could propel a decline towards the 24,800 zone.

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Published on 15-10-2025 10:41 am

BANK NIFTY

* The Banking Index registered its first decline after three consecutive sessions of gains, though late-session short covering limited losses.

* The prevailing structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, underscoring a sustained bullish bias, with the index holding above the 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs.

* Momentum was mixed, led by strength in AU Bank and Federal Bank, while Canara Bank and PNB underperformed.

* Technically, immediate resistance lies near 57,300, with firm support around 55,900.

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Published on 15-10-2025 10:41 am

Nifty

* Nifty opened on a positive note but failed to sustain early gains, ending marginally lower as trade-related concerns overshadowed favorable domestic cues.

* Technically, the Nifty is approaching its first key support at the 20-DEMA, near 25,050, with resilience in banking majors keeping hopes of a recovery alive.

* However, a decisive break below this support could trigger a deeper correction toward 24,800.

* Amid the volatility, we continue to maintain a tactical “buy on dips” approach, focusing on stocks showing relative strength or limited decline for long trade opportunities.

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Published on 15-10-2025 10:40 am

F&O Highlights

LONG UNWINDING WAS SEEN IN BANKNIFTY FUTURES

Create longs with the SL of 25100 levels.

* Nifty slipped for the second straight session, reversing early gains despite strong global cues. After a volatile 250-point swing, it closed 81 points lower at 25,145 (−0.32%). Cash market turnoversurged 20%, indicating broad-based selling pressure.

* Short Build-Up was seen in the Nifty Futures where Open Interest rose by 3.68% with Nifty falling by 0.32%.

* Long Unwinding was seen in the Bank Nifty Futures where Open Interest fell by 4.51% with Bank Nifty falling by 0.23%.

* Nifty Open Interest Put Call ratio fell to 0.91 levels from 1.07 levels.

* Amongst the Nifty options (20-Oct Expiry), Call writing is seen at 25300-25400 levels, indicating Nifty is likely to find strong resistance in the vicinity of 25300-25400 levels. On the lower side, an immediate support is placed in the vicinity of 25200-25100 levels where we have seen Put writing.

* Short build-up was seen by FII's in the Index Futures segment where they net sold worth 1,652 cr with their Open Interest going up by 9395 contracts.

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