Religare Broking Limited

Published on 11/08/2020 10:07:36 AM

Nifty Outlook

The bulls continued to dominate as the benchmark indices started the week on a positive note. However, profit-taking was witnessed at higher levels but the Nifty managed to end with healthy gains of 0.5% at 11,273 levels. The broader markets continued its outperformance as both BSE Midcap and Smallcap ended higher by 1.5% each.

On the sector front, except Oil & Gas which ended flat, all the other indices ended in green wherein Healthcare, Capital Goods, and Realty were the top gainers. Markets would react to the SC hearing on AGR dues and stocks especially from telecom and banking pack will remain in limelight. And since we’re closely following the global markets, US-China trade tension, currency and crude oil movement would also be actively tracked. We maintain our positive yet cautious stance and suggest traders to prefer hedged bets as volatility is here to stay. A decisive breakout above 11,350 in Nifty would again turn the bias in the favour of bulls.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 10/08/2020 11:06:41 AM

Nifty Outlook

It was a dull day on the benchmark front as the index hovered in a narrow range and settled marginally higher. However, the movement on the stock-specific front kept the participants busy throughout the session. Amongst the sectors, a mixed trend was witnessed wherein IT, Healthcare and Consumer Durables ended in the red, while telecom, power and auto were the top gainers. Amid all, the broader markets ended with decent gains in the range of 0.8-1.4%.

In the absence of any major event, global cues and earnings will remain in focus. We reiterate our positive yet cautious approach on the market and suggest focusing on stock selection. On the benchmark front, Nifty needs a decisive break above 11,350 for further up move else consolidation will continue. In the case of decline, 11,000 would act as immediate support.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 8/08/2020 11:04:16 AM

Weekly View

Nifty Outlook

* Nifty regained some strength and inched higher by over a percent amid volatility. It hovered roughly within 600 points during the week and finally settled at 11214.05. Upbeat global markets and supportive local cues played critical role in the recovery.

* Though the bias looks positive, Nifty needs a decisive break above 11,350 for further surge else profit taking would continue. In case of decline, 11,000 would act as immediate support and major support exists at 10,850.

* In absence of any major event, global cues and earnings will dictate the trend ahead. We thus advise traders to focus more on stock selection and risk management aspects.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 7/08/2020 10:10:31 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets managed to gain nearly a percent amid volatility, thanks to supportive global markets and favourable local cues. The bias was upbeat from the beginning and the benchmark extended gains as the day progressed, taking cues from the RBI’s announcements to aid the stressed sectors and further boost the financial system. However, the apex kept the repo rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Though some profit-taking was witnessed in the middle, buying interest in the last hour again pushed the markets higher. Amid all, a mixed trend was witnessed on the sectoral front while the broader markets posted decent gains.

The buoyancy in the global markets is helping the index on every dip and this scenario may continue. However, we still feel that it would be difficult for the index to sustain at the higher levels, without the participation from the banking pack thus traders should keep a close eye on the banking index for cues. The major hurdle is intact at 11,350 in the Nifty. Traders should limit their leveraged trades and prefer index majors over the others for short term trading.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 6/08/2020 10:35:29 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets ended almost flat amid volatility as participants preferred to book some profit at higher levels. Initially, firm global cues led an upbeat start and follow up buying in the select index majors pushed the index higher in the early trades. However, caution ahead of the RBI meeting outcome triggered profit-taking as the day progressed, which eliminated all the gains. Consequently, the Nifty ended flat at 11,100 levels (up by 6 points). Amid all, a mixed trend was witnessed amongst the sectors wherein metals, auto and consumer durables were the top gainers while energy and power were laggards. Interestingly, the broader markets managed to end with decent gains in the range of 0.4-0.9%.

Participants are keeping a close eye on RBI monetary policy outcome which is scheduled tomorrow and that would set the tone for the rest of the day as well. While the expectations are mixed on key rates, we feel commentary on the moratorium and future outlook would hold importance. We would suggest maintaining extra caution before the event and advise preferring hedged bets.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 5/08/2020 10:33:46 AM

Nifty Outlook

The bulls made a strong comeback, after four consecutive days of profit booking and helped the benchmarks to gain nearly 2%. Supportive global cues, after US manufacturing data and gains in tech stocks, boosted investors’ sentiment in the early trade. And, as the day progressed, healthy buying in auto, banking and energy stocks further extended the rally. Finally, the Nifty ended near day’s high at around 11,100 levels. The broader markets too witnessed healthy buying interest and ended with decent gains of around 1-1.3%.

We believe Indian markets would continue to take cues from global peers and the upcoming RBI policy would the next major trigger. At the same time, as more companies would announce its Q1FY21 earnings, stock-specific action would continue to induce high volatility. We reiterate our advice to focus on stock selection and risk management.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 4/08/2020 10:31:07 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets started the week on a muted note and ended with a cut of nearly 1.6%. Despite decent month sales numbers reported by Auto OEMs on the domestic front, investor’s sentiments remained downbeat, citing weak global markets and rising COVID-19 cases. The benchmark indices opened lower and extended their losses as the day progressed amid selling pressure in banking, IT and energy stocks. Among the indices, Nifty settled just below 10,900 levels, around the day’s low. Amongst the broader markets, a mixed trend was witnessed wherein midcap ended in losses of 0.2% while smallcap gained around 1.1%.

Markets may remain in a consolidation phase as there is high uncertainty regarding COVID-19 situation to get normalise as well as unsupportive global cues. Further, along with RBI monetary policy (scheduled on August 6th), market participants would keep a close watch on global cues (announcement of the additional stimulus package, macro data and US-China tension) as well as fluctuation in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, investors must opt for value-buying in select pockets to build a long-term portfolio. Now, the next support for the Nifty exists around 10,750-10,830 zone.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 3/08/2020 5:30:34 PM

DERIVATIVES MONTHLY ROLLOVER REPORT

July Expiry Derivatives Summary

For the July series Nifty closed at around 11110 after Volume weighted average price (VWAP) based selling activity was witnessed in the last hour of trade. The Nifty futures short roll cost (difference between current and next month futures) was at around 28 bps vs 24 bps. Nifty futures August contract started with around 1.04 Cr vs 1.03 lkh open interest in the previous series. Banknifty futures have seen an open interest at around 13.02 lkh vs 13.94 lkh. At expiry, VIX was at around 24% levels implying a 482 odd points swing in the Nifty in next 30 days. The highest Nifty August monthly options open interest now is at 11000 PE and 11500 CE. Nifty 11000 put open interest stands at around 32 lkh and 11500 call open interest at around 20 lkh.

In July series, Cement@96%, Pharma@96% and Bankning@95% are the sectors where highest rollover was witnessed, whereas Infrastructure@40%, Realty@76% and Technology@78% are the sectors where lower rollovers were witnessed.

HDFC and TORNTPHARM futures were the leaders in rollover, whereas IDEA and POWERGRID futures witnessed the lowest rollovers into Aug series.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 3/08/2020 10:56:21 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets ended marginally lower in a dull trading session, in absence of any major trigger. The benchmark index was under pressure from the beginning however buying in the select index majors capped the downside. Meanwhile, movement on the stock-specific front saved the day for the participants. On the sectoral front, a mixed trend was witnessed as the oil & gas index ended with losses whereas realty, metal and IT were the top gainers.

Going forward, markets would react to the auto sales numbers scheduled to release over the weekend. Besides, they would also keep a close watch on the RBI monetary policy scheduled next week thus we may see continued volatility, especially in the rate-sensitive counters. In short, participants should prepare themselves for yet another volatile week.

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Religare Broking Limited

Published on 31/07/2020 10:48:14 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets traded volatile and settled with a cut of over half a percent on the F&O expiry day. Initially, the benchmark opened with an uptick, led by supportive global cues however the selling pressure in the latter half trimmed all the gains and pushed the index in the red. On the sector front, except IT, all the other indices ended with losses wherein Telecom, Oil &Gas and Banking were the top losers.

We’re not surprised by the recent profit-taking phase and expect further correction ahead. Markets will first react to the index heavyweight, Reliance results in the early trade on Friday i.e. July 31 and that may set the tone for the rest of the session. Traders should keep a close eye on 11,050 in Nifty as its breakdown would trigger a fresh decline towards 10,950 levels else consolidation will continue. Traders should prefer hedged bets and maintain positions on both sides.

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