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Published on 03-07-2025 10:04 am

Technical Outlook

* Bank Nifty started the day with a gap up opening, however, index witnessed profit booking near Monday’s peak with lower -high - low with intraday bounces were short -lived, this led to a bearish candle, indicating healthy breather after the recent upmove .

* Key point to highlight is that, Wednesday’s session price action had broken past three sessions low indicating slow down in upward momentum . However, Index is majorly sustaining above 20 -day EMA since April helping the index to maintain the higher - high -low structure coupled with positive market breadth indicating a strong uptrend . Any decisive close above previous sessions high would open the gates towards 58800 levels in coming quarter which is the implied target of the consolidation from (56098 -53483 ) . We maintain our support base at 55500 , which is 80 % retracement of (55149 -57263 ) . indicating uptrend is intact . Any, decline from current levels would offer incremental buying opportunities .

* After six days of winning streak PSU Bank index took breather while maintaining higher -high -low structure indicating robust price structure . The index broke out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May and, since then, has been forming a higher - high -low structure on weekly which is intact, indicating uptrend is intact . While the Bank Nifty is trading at all -time high, whereas the PSU Bank index is still trading ~12 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is recent swing low coincided with 50 -day EMA .

* Structurally, the Bank Nifty is witnessed an elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracements, signifying a robust price structure . The April months up -move of 14 % is stronger compared to the March month’s 9 % rise . Additionally, the declines are becoming shallower, with the April months decline being 4 . 6 % versus 5 . 4 % in March 2025 after May month 7 % upmove followed by decline of 3 % which maintained the same rhythm of shallow declines indicating inherent strength .

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Published on 03-07-2025 10:03 am

Technical Outlook

Day that was..

* The Bank Nifty traded on a negative note and settled at 56999 , down 0 .80 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index in tandem with benchmark, closed on a negative note at 28106 .35 , down 0 .65 % .

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Published on 03-07-2025 10:03 am

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty started the day on a positive note, however, profit booking in the vicinity of 61.80% retracement of Monday’s session range and made lower-high-low structure where intraday pullbacks were sold into. This resulted into the formation of bear candle with small lower wick, indicating extended breather after recent upmove.

* Key point to highlight is that, index after last weeks breakout we expect index to undergo consolidation that would make market healthy by cooling off overbought conditions. Index is majorly sustaining above 20- day EMA since April indicating a strong uptrend. Going ahead, after couple of days breather, we expect Nifty to regain upward momentum and head towards 25800 and gradually pave the way towards All-time high in coming quarter. From seasonality perspective, July has been the favourable month for Nifty since 1991, 71% of the time returns have been positive with an average of 2.5%. Volatility along the way should be used as a buying opportunity as we expect Nifty to hold key support of 24900.

* Structurally, despite geopolitical worries index maintained its higher high-low formation wherein Nifty has merely corrected 3% and now witnessing acceleration of upward momentum. Past four decades history suggest that knee-jerk reactions during geopolitical escalation offers good investment opportunity for medium term perspective rewarding with double digit returns in subsequent three months. We expect, index to maintain the same rhythm.

* On the broader market front, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices have witnessed minor profit booking after previous weeks sharp upmove and now just 2-3% away from their life time highs. Meanwhile, northward inching ratio of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 makes us believe that broader market would continue with its outperformance. Further, current rally is backed by the sturdy market breadth as currently 76% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above their 50 days SMA while 59% of stocks are sustaining above their 200 days SMA, highlighting inherent strength.

* Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

* 1. Easing of geopolitical tension has resulted into decline in crude oil prices.

* 2. US Dollar index is sustaining below past two months low of $98 which augurs well for FII’s inflow in emerging markets.

* 3. Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US.

* We maintain our support to 24900 for the Nifty and is based on 61.8% retracement of recent rally (24473-25654) and 20-day EMA.

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Published on 03-07-2025 10:02 am

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* Indian equity benchmarks ended lower and closed at 25453 down 0.35%. Broader markets underperformed the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap indices closed on a flat to negative note. Sectorally, Realty, PSU Bank and Nifty PVT Bank underperformed, while, Metal, Consumer Durables and Healthcare outperformed.

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Published on 03-07-2025 10:01 am

BANKNIFTY

* As discussed earlier also, the upper boundary of the rising channel continues to act as a significant resistance zone for the banking index.

* Barring PNB and Axis Bank, most constituents ended the session in negative territory, led by notable weakness in IndusInd Bank.

* Looking ahead, the index is expected to gradually move towards the upper trendline of the broadening formation, located around the 58,000–58,500 range.

* On the downside, the 56,400–56,200 zone is likely to offer strong support.

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