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Published on 14-10-2025 11:29 am

FINNIFTY FUT@ 26867, 1 TGT ACHIEVED. TRAIL SL TO COST

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Published on 14-10-2025 11:29 am

SELL FINIFTY FUT BELOW 26895 SL ABOVE 26960 TGT 26865-26830-26780. 28 OCT

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Published on 14-10-2025 10:13 am

Nifty

Nifty sustained its bullish momentum last week, consistently holding above the 5-DEMA support despite brief intraday dips. After a soft start this week, the index recovered to close back in positive territory above its 5-DEMA level of 25165, showing continued strength. The breakout above 25200 was backed by higher volumes and firm trend indicators. The ADX, now near the key 25 zone, signals strengthening momentum — a sustained move above this could open the path towards 25500. In derivatives, the options base has shifted higher from 24500 to 25000, with resistance at 25500 and a congestion zone near 26000. Overall, a close above 25170 would confirm a follow-through breakout, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. The strategy remains buy-on-dips above 24940, aiming for 25400–25500 in the coming weeks.

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Published on 14-10-2025 10:10 am

Economic News

* US trade talks may be cracking India’s opposition to GM crops: India is reconsidering its long-standing ban on genetically modified food crops. This shift could open doors for agricultural trade with the United States. A Supreme Court ruling on GM rapeseed is anticipated. Proponents believe this technology can boost farm productivity and reduce import reliance. Opposition from farmer groups remains a significant factor.

Global News

* U.S. consumer confidence steady amid shutdown, inflation worries persist: U.S. President Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, set for November 1, has rattled retailers and trade experts, who warn of higher prices and weaker demand just as the crucial holiday season begins. While some firms may accelerate shipments to beat the deadline, duties could still hit upon arrival, causing supply-chain disruptions. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have already raised costs for goods from clothes to electronics, adding volatility that retailers struggle to manage. Most holiday inventory is already in the U.S., shielding this season, but sustained escalation could push prices higher next year. Retail stocks, including Abercrombie, Best Buy, and Nike, dipped after Trump’s remarks, though he later downplayed concerns. Analysts note this holiday season will test the effectiveness of companies’ diversification strategies amid tariff uncertainty, with retailers giving mixed forecasts Target and Best Buy holding, Walmart and Macy’s raising, and Mattel lowering expectations.

Government Security Market:

* The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.75%- 5.60% on Monday ended at 5.24% .

* The 10 year benchmark (6.33% GS 2035) closed at 6.5198% on Monday Vs 6.5370% on Friday .

Global Debt Market:

US Treasury futures are slightly lower on Monday, but the path for US bonds is higher in the weeks ahead. The US economy is in a weaker position than it was around Liberation Day, with more job losses expected amid the government shutdown (h/t Valerie Tytel), so bonds are looking more like a haven now. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is showing it is more focused on risks to employment than the inflation outlook. Two-year Treasury yields are on a path which is set to fully price for a Fed rate around 3%. The spillover from that could trigger a grab for longerdated bonds to lock in higher rates, flattening the curve in the process. Meanwhile, US equities aren’t far from record levels going into a quarterly earnings season where it will be tough for companies to meet high expectations, especially around AI themes. All the more reason for investors to stick with Treasuries in the near term.

10 Year Benchmark Technical View :

The 10 year Benchmark (6.33% GS 2035) yield likely to move in the range of 6.51% to 6.5250% level on Tuesday.

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Published on 14-10-2025 10:02 am

Nifty Bank : 56625

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty closed flat with a marginal positive bias and settled at 56,631 (+15 points). The Nifty Private Bank index has mirrored the benchmark, ending the day at 27,790 up (+27 points).

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty started the week on a negative note, however , after the initial decline, the index witnessed buying interest near the previous session’s low. As a result, the daily price action has formed a bull candle, indicating emergence of buying support at lower levels.

* Key point to highlight is that index has maintained its higher bottom formation for third-consecutive session. Index continues to hold above key moving averages and its prior gap-up zone of 55,700, indicating strong underlying momentum and resilience amid global uncertainties. The banking internals like private banks, PSU Banks, NBFC’s are showing structural improvement that makes us believe, Bank Nifty is gearing up to challenge it’s All Time high of 57600 in coming months. Therefore, any dip from current levels should be seen as a buying opportunity, with immediate support placed near 55,500, representing the 50% retracement of the ongoing up move (54,226-56,770).

* Structurally, Since 2021 bank nifty has shown a tendency to register fresh all-time highs following a decisive close above the preceding two month’s high. The current breakout above this pivotal level reinforces the positive price structure and signals the likelihood of an extension in the ongoing uptrend towards new lifetime highs.

* PSU Bank Index has mirrored the benchmark and closed on a positive note. Index has maintained its higher high-low formation for the third-consecutive session. Index consolidating above its recent swing high (7651) that would help index to extend its current up move to challenge it’s all time high 8050. On the downside, initial support is placed at 7,225, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the latest upswing (6,730– 7,651)

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