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Published on 19-12-2025 09:54 am

The banking index experienced a highly volatile trading session and ultimately closed sideways with marginal losses.

* The index opened with a gap-down, recovered sharply, and later declined to settle near flat levels, indicating a strong tussle between bullish and bearish participants.

* Momentum remained mixed across constituents, with Federal Bank and Axis Bank outperforming, while PNB and HDFC Bank lagged.

* Technically, immediate resistance is placed near 59,500, with initial support around 58,400.

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Published on 19-12-2025 09:53 am

Nifty traded with a cautious bias and ended flat, extending the ongoing consolidation phase.

* From a technical perspective, Nifty has managed to hold the crucial support near the previous swing low around 25,700, which remains a key level to monitor in the coming session, as a breakdown could lead to further correction.

* On the upside, the short-term moving average, the 20-DEMA, continues to act as an immediate hurdle around 25,950, and a sustained move above this level will be essential for the next leg of the up move.

* Given the prevailing choppiness and absence of strong triggers, stock-specific trading approach remains advisable, with an emphasis on disciplined risk management and controlled position sizing.

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Published on 19-12-2025 09:53 am

Market Outlook

Nifty is trading inside a falling wedge / consolidation zone after failing to sustain above the 26,200–26,250 resistance. Price is hovering near the 25,800–25,820 support, which is also close to the short-term moving average, indicating a critical decision zone. The RSI is around 46, below the neutral mark, showing mild weakness but not an oversold condition. As long as Nifty holds above 25,700, the structure remains corrective rather than bearish. A decisive breakout above 26,000 can trigger renewed upside momentum, while a break below 25,700 may invite further pressure towards 25,500. Overall bias remains range bound with a slight downward tilt, awaiting a clear directional trigger.

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Published on 19-12-2025 09:52 am

Economic News

• India's agri, processed food items to get duty-free access to Oman under trade pact: India and Oman have signed a new trade agreement. This pact grants duty-free access to Oman for Indian agricultural and processed food products. Items like honey, cashews, and meat will benefit. Indian consumers will also see cheaper dates from Oman. This agreement is expected to significantly boost India's exports to Oman.

Global News

* U.S. Inflation Eases, but Soaring Essentials Keep Affordability Pressures Alive: U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in November, with CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year versus a 3.1% forecast, but economists warned the data was distorted by a 43-day government shutdown that delayed price collection and created gaps, making the report less reliable. Despite the softer headline, affordability pressures remain as prices of essentials like beef (+15.8%), coffee (+18.8%) and electricity (+6.9%) surged, while tariff pass-through to consumers is still rising. Core CPI eased to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, though shelter inflation appeared unrealistically weak due to missing data. The Fed has cut rates to 3.50–3.75% but signaled caution ahead, as inflation risks from tariffs persist even as a cooling labor market supports expectations of rate cuts in 2026.

Government Security Market:

* The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.50%- 5.50% on Thursday ended at 4.80%.

* The 10 year benchmark (6.48% GS 2035) closed at 6.5738% on Thursday 6.5995% on Wednesday .

Global Debt Market:

U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Thursday as investors awaited inflation data, which will offer insights into the state of the U.S. economy. At 4:59 a.m. ET, the 10- year Treasury was down 1 basis point to 4.135%. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by 2 basis points to 3.464%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was less than 1 basis point lower to 4.818%. Traders are awaiting the consumer price index reading, which is slated to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. ET. It marks the first consumer inflation report since the historic 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which ended last month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the consumer price index, which measures changes in the cost of goods and services, to show inflation running at 3.1% on a yearly basis. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to come in at 3.0%.“It really would strengthen monetary policy easing expectations in the last inflation report – CPI report – of 2025 if we could keep inflation in the twos rather than it increasing up to the threes, because that’ll allow more interest rate cuts next year,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in an interview with CNBC. The Labor Department said the release won’t include the usual monthly change in inflation, as the October data wasn’t collected during the shutdown. The focus will instead be on the yearly rates. Other economic data that investors are anticipating is the weekly jobless claims report, due today, and existing home sales for November on Friday.

10 Year Benchmark Technical View :

The 10 year Benchmark (6.48% GS 2035) yield likely to move in the range of 6.56% to 6.58% level on Friday.

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Published on 19-12-2025 09:45 am

Nifty

Nifty opened on a negative note but witnessed pullback rally at lower levels however selling pressure at higher levels dragged index tocloseona flat note. Nifty closed at 25816 with a loss of 3 points. On the daily chart the index has formed a Bullish candle with a upper shadowindicatingselling at higher levels. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 25900 level it would witness buying whichwouldleadthe index towards 25950-26000 levels. Important Supports for the day is around 25720 However if index sustains below25720thenitmaywitness profit booking which would take the index towards 25680-25580 levels.

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