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ICICI Securities

Published on 12/08/2020 12:35:11 PM

Global Bonds

* In the first half, the Nifty managed to cross 11300 but was unable to hold on to its decent gains. At higher levels, profit taking was seen in technology, pharma and auto stocks whereas buying interest was seen in banking and metal stocks. Looking at the OI build-up in 11400 and 11500 Calls, these levels should be immediate hurdles on upsides. On the other hand, 11200 remains a support on downsides

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ICICI Securities

Published on 12/08/2020 12:17:42 PM

Bank Nifty: Close above sizeable Call base of 22000 to open upsides

* For a couple of sessions, the Bank Nifty continued to trade in a range where a tussle was going on between OTM Call writers and Put writers as 21000 acted as support and 22000 acted as a hurdle

* The August series had started with higher premiums but as the series progressed premiums declined on the back of short formation at 22000. This could be a positive trigger as for past few weeks, major rally was seen on the back of short covering

* During the week, major Call OI short formation level was at 22000. We feel a close above these levels would open the gates for higher target of 23000. However, thrice in the past few weeks, the Bank Nifty saw major support near 21000. We feel this would provide a cushion

* Post the RBI monetary policy out-come, most NBFC stocks saw short covering. We feel same kind of actions could be seen in private banks as well, which has consolidated for long now. Also, the rupee is hovering near 75 levels. We feel the rupee is likely to appreciate further. That will be an added boost for BFSI, which will push the index higher

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ICICI Securities

Published on 12/08/2020 12:17:33 PM

Nifty: Positive consolidation to continue above 11000 level

* The Nifty recovered from the crucial level of 10800 and is expected to consolidate more above 11000 in the coming week. Monetary policy outcome has happened and the markets are looking for fresh triggers. If global markets continue to trade with a positive bias, similar reactions would be seen in Indian markets also

* FIIs outflows have reduced. Fresh inflows are being seen from them, supporting the markets. The rupee appreciation trend is also going to be helpful

* Participation was seen from most sectors amid a lacklustre performance from the banking space. Metals, cement, IT, consumption and energy heavyweights have remained in a good trend. More such support is expected from these sectors

* The downsides in the banking space seem limited as this space has already remained subdued. We may see stock specific reversals from this space. We have seen some performance returning in select banking heavyweights

* We still believe the underperforming midcap stocks can start performing in this positive consolidation. Various sectors like capital goods, infrastructure and auto ancillary have a good number of stocks that have still enough room for participation. We can witness good short covering in these stocks

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ICICI Securities

Published on 12/08/2020 12:17:04 PM

Bank Nifty: 22227

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty gained for a sixth consecutive session and closed higher by 1 . 5 % on Tuesday on the back of strong global cues . The up move was lead by the private banking stocks as the Nifty private banking index closed higher by 1 . 7 % . The BANK NIFTY ended the session at 22227 , up by 327 points or 1 . 5 % .

* The daily price action formed a sizable bull candle with a higher high -low signalling continuation of the up move for a sixth consecutive session . The daily stochastic has approached overbought territory with a reading of 86 , so some profit booking at higher levels can not be ruled out . However bias remain positive and we expect the index to eventually head towards 22700 levels in the coming sessions being the confluence of the 80 % retracement of the previous decline (23211 -21031 ) and the recent breakdown area placed at 22700 levels

* The index has already taken six sessions to retrace less than 61 . 8 % of the previous eight sessions decline (23211 -21031 ) . Lack of faster retracement in either side signals continuation of the overall consolidation in the coming sessions

* The Bank Nifty is seen consolidating in the broad range of 21000 -23000 in the last seven weeks . The current breather has lead to a cool off in the overbought condition as the weekly stochastic is currently placed at a reading of 40 . Therefore the current temporary breather should not be construed as negative . Instead it should be capitalised on to accumulate quality banking stocks

* The Bank Nifty has strong support around 21000 levels based on the confluence of the following technical observation :(a) the lower band of the recent consolidation range of the last seven weeks and (b) 61 . 8 % retracement of the last major up move (19507 -23211 ) placed at 20850 levels

* In the coming session, Index is opening on a negative note . However, bias remain positive as forming higher high -low . Hence use dips towards 21820 -21880 for creating intraday long position for target of 22080 with a stooloss of 21720

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ICICI Securities

Published on 12/08/2020 12:16:49 PM

NSE (Nifty): 11323

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks extended gains over sixth consecutive session and ended the Tuesday’s session at five months high. The Nifty settled at 11323, up 0.5% or 52 points. Market breadth remained strong with A/D ratio of 1.3:1. Sectorally, financials and metal outshone while pharma took breather

* The daily price action formed a higher wave candle carrying higher high-low, indicating continuance of positive bias amid stock specific action

* Key point to highlight is that, Nifty took six sessions to retrace preceding four sessions decline (11341-10882), indicating lack of faster retracement on either side amid overbought placement of daily and weekly stochastic oscillator (currently placed at 86 and 84, respectively) which makes us believe index would extend the ongoing healthy consolidation in the broad range of 10900-11400. We believe, such a healthy consolidation would help weekly stochastic oscillator to cool off the overbought condition formed due to past two months 19% rally. Meanwhile, we expect broader markets to continue to outshine the equity benchmarks. Hence, temporary breather from hereon should not be construed as negative, instead be capitalised as incremental buying opportunity in quality mid cap and small caps

* Both, the Nifty mid cap and small cap indices continued with its northbound journey after surpassing their 200 days SMA, indicating rejuvenation of upward momentum. This was supported by constant improvement in market breadth as currently, ~58% constituents of the Nifty midcap, small cap indices are sustaining above their long term 200 days SMA compared to last month’s reading of 45%, which signifies broadening of participation that augurs well for durability of ongoing up move

* Since 2009, post major corrections, rallies in Nifty Mid cap and Small Cap indices have lasted for 15 to 16 weeks. We expect this rhythm to play out for current rally as well. As both indices are in 12th week of rally, we are still away from maturity of an uptrend

* We believe Nifty has formed a higher base at key support threshold of 10900 and we expect Nifty to hold the same in the coming week as 10900 is a confluence of: a)38.2% retracement of ongoing up move (10195 –11374), at 10923 b)200 days SMA is placed at 10848

* In the coming session, Nifty future is likely to open on a subdued note tracking muted global cues. However, we expect Nifty future to hold key support of 11200. Hence, intraday dip towards 11185- 11210 should be used to create long position for target of 11298

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ICICI Securities

Published on 12/08/2020 12:16:10 PM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks extended gains over sixth consecutive session and ended the Tuesday’s session at five months high. The Nifty settled at 11323, up 0.5% or 52 points. In the coming session, Nifty future is likely to open on a subdued note tracking muted global cues. However, we expect Nifty future to hold key support of 11200. Hence, intraday dip towards 11185-11210 should be used to create long position for target of 11298

Key point to highlight is that, Nifty took six sessions to retrace preceding four sessions decline (11341-10882), indicating lack of faster retracement on either side amid overbought placement of daily and weekly stochastic oscillator (currently placed at 86 and 84, respectively) which makes us believe index would extend the ongoing healthy consolidation in the broad range of 10900- 11400. Meanwhile, we expect broader markets to continue to outshine the equity benchmarks. Hence, temporary breather from hereon should not be construed as negative, instead be capitalised as incremental buying opportunity in quality stocks.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 12/08/2020 12:15:34 PM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

Weekly contract saw the highest call addition along 11400, OI buid was the highest in 11700 for monthly contracts, but it could be misleading as Nifty was seen giving away the day’s gains, in the second half. Volume was the highest at 11500, while puts were the most active at 11000. This, for now portrays a 500 point volatile range, rather than an outright bearish view. Meanwhile, despite second half’s bearish bias, FIIs do not look to have positioned towards such an outcome. Index future longs were boosted by 1.31%, while index shorts were cut by 1.55%. and a massive boost to index call shorts, which rose by 15.76. This should ideally support Nifty from major falls, despite the weak opening projected today.

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SEBI Registration number is INH200000345

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 12/08/2020 12:05:54 PM

Nifty Outlook:

Our warning yesterday was to expect volatility once inside the 11375-11444 region, and Nifty ended up turning lower from 11372.85 and attempted several times to breach low of previous day. The two doji’s in as many days, along with a negative divergence in oscillators, will force Nifty towards a lower opening, with 10640 emerging as the possible downside objective. Hopes of an early reversal will rest on the ability of 11130 vicinity to attract buying, or on Nifty managing to float above 11285 after the initial weakness.

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SEBI Registration number is INH200000345

Choice International Ltd

Published on 12/08/2020 12:03:52 PM

Bank Nifty

* The Bank Nifty index has given gap up opening and showed strength through out the session as compare to nifty, bank nifty is much stronger as managed to close at 22270 level with a gain of 326 points.

* Index has given closing above 21& 50 HMA which suggest sustain above it can show upside movement.

* Moreover, Daily Momentum Indicator RSI is reading at 55 and given closing above 50 level which points strength in the Index.

* Atpresent level, down side support comes at 21800 while upside resistance comes at 22500 level

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Choice International Ltd

Published on 12/08/2020 12:03:41 PM

Nifty Outlook

* Nifty ends at 11,322 with a gain of 52 points ,oharma drags. Among sectors, except pharma and IT other indices ended inthe green.

* Further more index managed to sustain above 21 Day Moving Average which points out strength inthe index.

* Daily momentum indicator RSI is reading at 66 with positive crossover which points out index can show upside movement.

* Maximum call Ol of nearly 21.20 lakh contracts was seen at 11,500 strikes, which will act as crucial resistance in the August series.

* Maximum put OI of 30.74 lakh contracts was seen at 11,000 strikes, which will act as crucial supportin the August series.

* At present level index is having resistance at 11450-11500 level with the support comes at 11200 level

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