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Published on 21/12/2020 12:43:58 PM | Source: Yes Securities Ltd

India Strategy - Model Portfolio By Yes Securities

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BAJAJ-AUTO - Inclusion

Rationale

* Close to start of upcycle in autos. Strong rural market supports 2W demand.

* Strong profitability will only get stronger with pick-up in demand. Attractive free cashflow yield; deserves higher multiple

 

AJANTPHARM - Inclusion

Rationale

* Domestic business after COVID hit in FY21 will rebound with 15-16% growth in FY22

* US business on solid footing; small scale to support robust growth – fairly commoditized base barring 2-3 niche products

* Will AJANTPHARM see return to historical margin of 34% seen between FY15-17? – Not in a hurry but reckon combination of domestic + US can bring it closer

 

CREDITACC - Inclusion

Rationale

* Renewed momentum in disbursements to continue, the consol. AUM growth is estimated to accelerate to 25-30% in FY22

* While Q3 may see elevated provisions, overall loss assessment could remain intact. Many of the PAR 60/90 customers are expected to start paying regularly soon.

* Estimate consol. RoA delivery of 4.5-4.8% over the next two years, manifesting the substantial synergies of MMFL acquisition. Stock trades at 2.7x FY22 P/ABV, which is palatable for a bestin-class MFI

 

GREENPANEL - Inclusion

Rationale

* We believe Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) to be the most promising building material segment in India over the next decade as 1. it displaces low end plywood and 2. readymade furniture industry picks up pace. We expect MDF industry growth to be 20%+ CAGR over FY21E-FY26E.

* With a capacity share of 36%, Greenpanel is the industry leader of MDF market in India and will be the biggest beneficiary of industry tailwinds.

* Value unlocking on the cards as the company would sweat its capacity to optimum utilization by FY23E along with financial deleveraging.

 

ALEMBICPHARMA - Exclusion

Rationale

* Booking profits

 

REPCOHOME - Exclusion

Rationale

* Tactical rotations

 

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