Published on 23/07/2020 2:10:00 PM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 23 July 2020 - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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* Zigzag moves were witnessed in NCDEX Jeera August futures initially on Wednesday and ended on a firmer note, hitting its highest levels since April this year.

* The key jeera spot market of Unjha is shut for a week due to the spread of corona virus.

* According to the Spices Board, jeera production for the year 2019-20 is pegged at 540750 tonnes, down 21.8 per cent on yoy basis.

* According to the Spices Board, exports rose 27 per cent during Apr-Dec 2019 to 167000 compared to same period last year.

* Coriander August futures on NCDEX hit a fresh six month high on Wednesday on firm demand amidst dwindling supplies in the market.

* Spices Board has forecast coriander production at 755,740 tn, up 25.9% on year due to a sharp rise in acreage.

* Govt. pegs 2019-20 coriander output at 762000 tonnes.

* According to Spices Board of India data, coriander exports were at 36750 tonnes during Apr-Dec 2019, up by one per cent compared to same period last year.

* Turmeric NCDEX August futures traded firm on Wednesday and ended more than one per cent up on firm export demand.

* Spices Board pegs 2019-20 turmeric crop at 938,955 tn, dn 2.2% YoY

* Telangana pegs 2019-20 turmeric crop at 307,000 tn vs 294,000 tn.

* For the period Apr-Dec 2019, India exported 101,500 tn of turmeric, marginally up compared to 101,000 tonnes exported during the same period in 2018. However, in the value terms it showed a three per cent fall.

* Cardamom August futures on MCX jumped nearly three per cent on Wednesday to its highest level in more than a month.

* The Tamil Nadu health authorities have decided to stop the e-auctions of cardamom being conducted at Bodinayakanur in Theni dist for 14-days after an official with the Spices Board of India was tested positive for Covid-19. According to the Spices Board circular The auctions scheduled from 20.07.2020 to 22.07.2020 vide Circular of even No. dated 26.6.2020 have been modified and shifted to E-auction Centre at Puttady Spices Park. The circular also adds that The E-auction schedule issued from 23.07.2020 to 24.08.2020 vide Circular dated 15.07.2020 stands cancelled and further directions on E-Auction schedule will be issued in Board’s website / intimated to the Auctioneers later.

* Spices Board pegs '19-20 small cardamom crop at 11,230 tn, dn 13.2%



* Mixed sentiments observed in the oilseed complex yesterday too. MCX July CPO futures extended its gains on firm demand in the spot market. NCDEX July Soy oil futures settled lower due to higher imports of edible oils to India.

* NCDEX July Soybean extended its weakness due to higher imports of soy oil to India along with higher acreage. July Mustard seed prices traded higher due to lower arrivals in the spot market.

* India's oilseed imports nearly doubled to 520,871 tn in 2019-20 (Apr-Mar), according to data from The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. During 2019-20, India imported 520,871 tn of oilseeds compared to 258,742 tn a year ago. Major oilseeds imports include soybean, sesame seed and cottonseed.

* India's mustard meal exports jumped 72% on year to 122,573 tn in June due to recovery in demand from major buyers, according to the data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Soybean Processors Association of India is expecting import of crude degummed soyoil to hit a record high of 500,000 tn in July due to a recovery in demand with the easing of lockdown norms, the association's President Davish Jain said. India's soymeal exports fell nearly 17% on year to 60,000 tn in June and around 71% lower on year at 573,000 tn during Oct-Jun, according to SOPA.

* India's edible oil imports rose 8.5% on year to around 1.2 mln tn in June, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in its report. For Nov-Jun, edible oil imports were at 8.1 mln tn, lower than 9.5 mln tn during the yearago period. Imports of refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein fell 99% on year to 3,000 tn in June, probably because it was kept under the restricted category by the Centre.

* India's oilmeal exports rose marginally on year to 229,230 tn in June due to recovery in demand from major buyers, according to the data released by SEA. However, the overall export of oilmeals during Apr-Jun fell 15% on year at 579,110 tn, the data showed. In June, soymeal exports slumped 9.4% on year to 56,638 tn, the association said. During Apr-Jun, South Korea purchased 182,136 tn of oilmeals compared to 280,429 tn during same period last year, while Vietnam bought 120,666 tn of oilmeals against to 106,898 tn. The US imported 45,308 tn of oilmeals compared to 50,605 tn a year ago, and Thailand purchased 65,188 tn of oilmeals against 74,338 tn a year ago from India.

* India's edible oil exports rose nearly 54% on year to 80,765 tn during 2019-20 (Apr-Mar), according to SEA. Last year, it sold 52,490 tn edible oil overseas. Export of groundnut oil was at 38,225 tn and most of it went to China. Mustard oil export was at 3,681 tn. The United Arab Emirates and the US buy most of India's mustard oil. Bhutan, US and Canada are the main buyers of soyoil from India. In 2019-20, soyoil exports were at 9,822 tn. India exported 12,520 tn rice bran oil mainly to the US, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand. Export of edible oils (both crude and refined) in Apr-Mar, in tn, compared with year-ago level.

* Soybean acreage in the country nearly doubled on year to 10.1 mln ha as of last week, as per data compiled by farm ministry. The Union Cabinet approved a hike in minimum support price for 14 major kharif crops. MSP for soybean hiked by Rs.170 to 3880 from 3710 per 100 kg.

* The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its global oilseed production estimate for 2020-21 to 604.2 mln tn from 606.15 mln tn pegged a month ago, primarily due to lower soybean production, in its report for July. The agency has raised its estimate for global oilseed consumption by 1.53 mln tn to 510.82 mln tn. It has, however, cut its estimates for oilseed exports in 2020-21 by 440,000 tn to 185.87 mln tn. On the back of a rise in consumption, ending stocks for 2020-21 are now seen at 109.40 mln tn compared to 111.49 mln tn pegged in June.The agency has pegged global soybean output 330,000 tn lower from its June view to 362.52 mln tn. For Brazil, among the major growers, it has kept soybean output unchanged at 131.0 mln tn.Production of the oilseed in the US is also seen declining by 350,000 tn to 122.85 mln tn.The agency cut global soybean ending stocks by 1.3 mln tn to 95.1 mln tn, as likely lower stocks in Brazil and China may get partly offset by higher stocks in the US.

* Mustard crop for 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is pegged at 9.1 mln tn as against 9.3 mln tn produced a year ago, farm ministry data. Farmers across the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha as of Thursday, down 0.4% on year, farm ministry data showed.

* According to Government 2nd advance estimate, castor production in 2019-20 is expected at 2.0 mln tn, up from the previous estimate of 1.7 mln tn.

* India's castor oil exports fell 6% on year to 38,199 tn in January, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India's data. For Apr-Jan, exports were also down at 441,030 tn, compared with 472,192 tn during the year-ago period. In 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), India's castor oil exports slipped to 571,985 tn in 2018-19 from 651,326 tn in the previous year.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output rose 14.2% on month in June to 1.9 mln tn, while total palm oil stocks were down 6.3% at 1.9 mln tn, data from Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. Stocks of processed palm oil in the country were at 873,986 tn in June against 1.04 mln tn a month ago, and those of crude palm oil were at 1.03 mln tn compared with 991,740 tn in May. Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 25% higher at 1.71 mln tn, and its biodiesel exports fell 14.1% to 16,022 tn, the data showed.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports during June are estimated to have risen 29% on month to 1.6 mln tn, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. Malaysia is the second-largest producer and exporter of palm oil.



* The USDA has scaled down its 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) cotton export estimate for the US to 15.0 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 16.0 mln bales projected in the previous month, the agency said in its world supply and demand estimates report for July.

* Farmers across India had sown cotton over 11.3 mln ha in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season, up 17.3% from a year ago, as of last week. The acreage is higher than the normal of 9.6 mln ha for the period, based on the average for the last five years, according to farm ministry.

* The Cotton Corp of India has sold around 50,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) of the fibre from its procured stocks, said Pradeep Agarwal, chairman and managing director of the state-owned agency. Of the total quantity, most of the stock was sold in domestic market, while two deals have been signed with private mills in Bangladesh.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) global cotton output estimate to 116.25 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 118.74 mln bales projected previous month in its monthly report. The agency pegged world consumption at 114.30 mln bales, down from 114.41 mln bales estimated a month ago. However, consumption is expected to rise by 11.7% from previous year's recession-reduced level. Global exports for 2020-21 are also seen lower at 41.81 mln bales, from 42.90 mln bales estimated a month ago. Ending stocks are seen at 102.77 mln bales, lower from 104.67 mln bales. Output in the US in the coming year is seen lower at 17.5 mln bales from 19.5 mln bales estimated last month. The decline in output is mainly because of lower plantings by 1.5 mln acre this month. In India, production is seen lower by 2 mln bales from last year at 28.5 mln bales in the 2020-21 season. USDA projected India's 2019- 20 carryover stock at 19.0 mln of US bales, which is equivalent to about 24.4 mln Indian bales (1 bale = 170 kg), compared with 5.0 mln bales estimated by the CAI for the season.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee expects China to remain as the largest importer of the fibre in the 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) season, despite a 12% fall compared to the previous year. The committee has estimated China's cotton imports for the ongoing season at 1.84 mln tn compared with 2.10 mln tn last year. Similarly, exports from India is projected at 530,000 tn in 2019-20, lower from 800,000 tn a year ago due to lower shipments to China. The committee estimated global cotton exports for the ongoing season at 8.25 mln tn compared with 9.07 mln tn last year.Global imports is expected to decline 11% on year at 8.25 mln tn. Global consumption is expected to decline 12.8% on year to 22.54 mln tn. Ending stock for the ongoing season is estimated at 22.49 mln tn compared with 18.88 mln tn last year.

* The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service has scaled up its estimate for India's 2020- 21 (Aug-Jul) cotton crop to 28.9 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 28.5 mln bales projected earlier, citing rise in acreage. Cotton acreage is seen at 12.9 mln ha in 2020-21, compared with 12.6 mln ha it had estimated in the previous month. The average yield of cotton is expected to rise to 488 kg per ha from 480 kg last year. It has maintained India's cotton consumption for 2020-21 at 23.0 mln bales,as against 21.0 mln bales in 2019-20, based on expected revival in mill operation capacity. Exports are projected at 3.5 mln bales in the coming season, while imports are expected at 1.0 mln bales. In 2020-21, the closing stock of cotton is estimated at 20.2 mln bales, compared with 19.8 mln bales projected a month ago.

* Farmers in India have sown cotton across 7.2 mln ha, up 164.7% from a year ago, in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season as of Thursday. Based on the average of last five years, the acreage under the crop is higher than the normal 3.9 mln ha for the period, farm ministry data showed.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has scaled up its estimate for global ending stocks of the fibre to 3.8 mln tn for 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) from 3.6 mln tn projected last month in its June report. Global cotton consumption is pegged at 22.1 mln tn for 2019-20, compared with 22.2 mln tn projected a month ago. Further, the agency has maintained its projection for global cotton production at 25.8 mln tn.

* The government has raised the support price of medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg to 5,515 rupees, and that of long staple by 275 rupees to 5,825 rupees.

* ICRA reported that recent announcement of a hike in minimum support prices is likely to boost India's cotton acreage in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season, though it may be unfavourable for the domestic spinning sector. The government has increased the support price for medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg for the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing season, and that for long staple by 275 rupees. ICRA says that demand and trade prospects this year have been severely hampered by the pandemic. Demand for end-use segments such as fabric and apparel, and yarn is also being hit. This has resulted in a decline in cotton consumption this year.

* The Cotton Association of India has revised downward its crop estimate for India in the 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) season to 33.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), from 35.45 mln bales projected in the previous month.The association has also lowered its estimate for domestic consumption to 28.0 mln bales for the current year, compared with 33.1 mln bales a month ago.The estimate for imports has also been lowered to 1.5 mln bales, from 2.5 mln bales. Considering the opening stock of 3.2 mln bales, the cotton body expects the total supply in the current season to be around 37.7 mln bales. It has revised upward its export estimate at 4.7 mln bales, from 4.2 mln bales a month ago. The closing stock of cotton for the 2019-20 season is now pegged at 5.0 mln bales.

* Govt ups 2019-20 cotton output view to 36.05 mln bales vs 34.89 mln. USDA has pegged India's cotton acreage at 12.5 mln ha for the coming season, compared with 13.3 mln ha in 2019-20.



* Madhya Pradesh has procured 822916 tonnes of chana, masur and mustard harvested in 2019-20 at minimum support prices according to the government official.

* The government has procured over 90% of the target of 2.2 mln tn for 2020-21 (AprMar) as of Saturday from farmers in nine states under the price support scheme, a government official said. The procurement drive was underway at over 1,500 centres in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Telangana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana from farmers who sold the crop harvested in 2019- 20 (Jul-Jun). Over 704,285 tn of chana was procured from farmers in Madhya Pradesh, 128,000 tn in Andhra Pradesh, 102,000 tn in Karnataka, 587,155 tn in Rajasthan, 298,372 tn in Maharashtra, 118,269 tn in Gujarat, 48,000 tn in Telangana, 31,875 tn in Uttar Pradesh, and rest in Haryana, the official said.

* Gujarat State Cooperation Marketing Federation Ltd ended procurement of chana at 35 of the 96 centres, as it achieved its target of procuring 25% of the total produce, according to the federation's chairman Dilip Sanghani. The federation have procured about 62,000 tn of chana out of 112,000 tn planned for this year.

* According to the data released by Rajasthan's Agriculture Department, as of July 9, guar has been sown under 404200 hectares, a 13.5 per cent rise compared to the same period last year.

* Export of guar gum have further declined in the month of April-20 by 32 percent compared to previous month. India exported around 9437 tonnes of guar gum at an average FoB of $ 1599 per tonne in the month of April-20 compared to 13820 tonnes in March20 at an average FoB of $ 1815 per tonne. Of the total 2266 tonnes have been exported to Germany.

* Export of guar split have improved in the month of April-20. Exports in the month of April-20 are up by around 177% compared to previous month. India exported around 8640 tonnes of guar split in the month of April-20 at an average FoB of $ 985 per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 7920 tonnes have been exported to China.

* ICEX August futures shed more than 1.5 per cent on Wednesday, while in the spot market RSS4 grade rubber traded steady near Rs.132 a kg.

* The Rubber Board is mulling to launch an online trading platform for physical transaction of natural rubber to bring transparency in the market.

* According to ANRPC, the world consumption of NR dropped by 15.7% during H1 2020 (Jan-Jun 2020) as per the revised estimates. In China, the country accounting 40% of the world demand, the consumption fell by 20.1% during H1 2020. The organization expects that world consumption is now set to enter positive territory by increasing 1.4%, year-on-year, during Q3 2020 (Jul-Sep). The consumption in China, in particular, is expected to increase by 0.8%, year-on-year, during the same quarter.



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