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Published on 3/08/2020 5:54:14 PM | Source: GEPL Capital Ltd

Weekly Technical Outlook - NIFTY Weekly close 11073.50 (-1.1%) By GEPL Capital

Posted in Market Outlook| #GEPLCapital Ltd #Market Outlook

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NIFTY Weekly close 11073.50 (-1.1%)

Observation

* The index has been in a strong up move since the past few weeks. In the previous week the up move stalled and it ended week with a loss of (-1.1%).

* The long term moving average on the daily time frame are as follows 20 Day SMA (10947) 100 Day SMA (9841) and the 200 Day SMA (10870). The prices have been trading above all the mentioned averages for the past 10 sessions.

* On the indicator front the RSI (58.90) plotted on the weekly chart of NIFTY can be seen forming a bearish hinge, indicating a short-term exhausting in the bullish momentum.

* The INDIAVIX on the weekly time frame ended at 24.19 with a W-o-W loss of (-1.40%), and has been moving in a range for the past 3 week. Pointing towards reduced anxiety among the participants.

* The crucial levels to watch for on the Downside are 10870 (200 DMA) and 10660-10550 (multiple touch point level and 61.8% retracement level of the fall form 12430-7511 followed by 10156 (5 week low).

* On the upside the 11377 (78.6% retracement level of the fall form 12430-7511) followed by a resistance zone of 11800 (December 2019 low) and 12120 (June 2019 high)

Inference & Expectations

* Based on the above parameters the NIFTY seems to be in a strong bullish up move, which is currently about to witness a correction

* We will remain bullish on the index as long as the index holds the 10870 mark (200 Day SMA). Beyond which we might see the level of 10660- 10550 (multiple touch point level and 61.8% retracement level of the fall form 12430- 7511) being tested.

* On the upside the NIFTY can touch crucial resistance level is placed at 11377 (78.6% retracement level of the fall form 12430-7511) followed by a resistance zone of 11800 (December 2019 low)

 

BANK NIFTY 21640 weekly close (-4.5%)

Observation

* The NIFTY BANK has been witnessing a range bound movement for the past 4 weeks, in the week that passed by it ended with a massive loss of (-4.5%) and broke below the 22363 (38.2% retracement level of the fall form 32656-16000).

* The long term moving average on the daily time frame are as follows 20 Day SMA (22171), 100 Day SMA (20982) and the 200 Day SMA (25944). Currently the NIFTY BANK is placed below the 200 Day SMA, and is moving between the 20 and the 100 Day SMA for the past 4 sessions.

* On the indicator front the RSI (45.13) plotted on the weekly chart of NIFTY BANK is currently placed below the 50 mark pointing towards the bears being in control.

* The crucial levels to watch for going ahead on the upside are 23211 (2 week high), followed by 24330 (multiple touch point level).

* On the downside the ley support level is placed at 20400 (20 week SMA and previous swing high), followed by 18800 (May 2020 low)

 

Inference & Expectations

* NIFTY BANK has underperformed the NIFTY, and looking at the technical parameters we expect this to continue.

* We feel that the NIFTY BANK will move towards immediate support level of 20400 (20 week SMA and previous swing high), followed by 18800 (May 2020 low)

* On the upside the key resistance is placed at 23211 (2 week high), followed by 24330 (multiple touch point level).

 

TORNTPHARMA weekly close 2663.30 (14.5%)

Observation

* The stock had witnessed a strong recovery for the March 2020 lows. In the previous week it resumed the up move after almost 2 month long consolidation.

* In the previous week it not only broke but also closed above the upper edge of a consolidation with a gain of (14.5%)

* The long term moving average on the daily time frame are as follows 20 Day SMA (2379.35) 100 Day SMA (2319) and the 200 Day SMA (2101). Currently it is placed above all the above mentioned moving averages.

* On the indicator front the RSI (62.68) plotted on the weekly chart of TORNTPHARMA can be seen firmly moving higher and remains above the 50 level, indicating the presence of bullish momentum in the prices

* Going ahead the crucial level to watch for on the upside are 2793 (50% extension level of the rise from 1583-2699) followed by 2924 and 3112 (61.8% and 78.6% extension level of the rise from 1583-2699).

* The key support levels are placed at 2464 (17th July high) followed by 2272 (weekly low)

Inference & Expectations

* The stock has been in a strong up move since March 2020. In the previous week it gathered fresh momentum and tested a life time high of 2755.40.

* Looking at the technical parameters we can say that the stock has been in a strong bullish trend and we expect it to test the level of 2793 (50% extension level of the rise from 1583-2699) followed by 2924 and 3112 (61.8% and 78.6% extension level of the rise from 1583-2699).

* Our bullish view will be negated only if the prices breach the 2464 (17th July high), beyond which we can expect the test of 2272 (weekly low).

 

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