Asia-Pacific region likely to dominate global economic growth in 2023: S&P Global Market Intelligence
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S&P Global Market Intelligence in its latest note has said that Asia-Pacific region, which produces 35 per cent of the world GDP, is likely to dominate global economic growth in 2023, with the support of regional free-trade agreements, efficient supply chains, and competitive costs. It added that Southeast Asia and India will benefit from trade diversification away from mainland China.
It also expects that the energy- and mineral-producing regions of the Middle East and Africa too will achieve moderate growth. About the US, it said the ongoing tightening financial conditions due to monetary policy tightening will tip the US economy into a ‘mild recession’ starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 and extending through the second quarter of 2023. This month, it revised down US real GDP growth in 2023 from 0.9 to (-) 0.5 per cent.
On global inflation, it said that while achieving central bank inflation targets will be a multiyear process, there are possibilities for ‘significant progress’ in 2023. Global consumer price inflation is projected to slow from 7.7 per cent in 2022 to 5.1 per cent in 2023 and 3.0 per cent in 2024, provided inflation in the advanced economies settles at 2.1 per cent. It said global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.9 per cent in 2021 to 2.8 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2023, thus averting an ‘outright recession’.
