06-07-2023 09:26 AM | Source: ICICI Direct
US$INR is expected to face a hurdle near 82.7 - ICICI Direct
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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar index remained muted yesterday as investors awaited more clarity on the interest rate cycle. Meanwhile, increasing odds of a Fed rate hike in July supported the dollar to stay above the 104 mark

• The rupee maturing on June 27 appreciated by 0.06% on Tuesday amid a softer dollar and fall in crude oil prices

• The rupee is likely to move in a sideways trend ahead of key RBI policy due tomorrow, where the central bank is likely to keep rates unchanged. However, weaker crude oil prices could support the rupee to gain strength against the dollar. Further growing probability of no hike in June and expectation of disappointing economic data from the US could hurt the dollar. US$INR is expected to face a hurdle near 82.70 and move back towards 82.40. Only a close below 82.40 would weaken pair towards 82.20

 

 

Euro and Pound Outlook

The Euro was under pressure on Tuesday amid a weaker set of economic numbers. The eurozone April retails sales remained unchanged against market expectation of growth by 0.2% MoM. Further, a fall in German April factory orders by 0.4% has weighed on the pair. Moreover, a drop in ECB’s monthly consumer inflation expectation for the next 12 months also impacted the single currency

• The Euro is likely to hold its ground and bounce back towards 1.0730 on expectation of improvement in key economic numbers. German industrial production is expected to expand by 0.7%. Euro is expected to hold the support of 200 day EMA near 1.0670 and move towards 1.0730. EURINR is likely to hold the support near 88.30 and move back towards 88.80

• The pound edged lowed on Tuesday despite of stronger construction PMI number. The UK construction PMI improved to 51.6 against previous reading of 51.1

• The pound is expected to trim yesterday’s losses and move upward amid softness in the dollar and on expectation of better Halifax house price index numbers. The pair could find support near the 50 day EMA at 1.2380 and rise towards 1.2460. A move above 1.2460 would bring fresh buying interest in the pair and push it towards 1.25. GBPINR is likely to hold the support near 102.30 and move towards 103.00

 

 

 

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