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HIGHER CRUDE OIL COULD SPOIL THE PARTY - HDFC Securities
* Indian rupee likely trade with negative bias amid overnight surge in crude oil prices. In the opening trade, USDINR June futures opened at 69.99 from previous close of 69.51.
* In the minutes of June 6 monetary policy meet, RBI highlighted concern about weakening economic growth, and suggested slower core inflation and better anchoring of inflation expectations enabled the central bank to cut the policy rate earlier this month. The MPC was also unanimous in its decision to switch the policy stance to accommodative from neutral.
* In the near term, USDINR June future continue to consolidate in the range of 69.40 to 70.00.
* President Trump pulled back from strikes against Iran late Thursday, hours after approving them in retaliation for downing of drone.
* The geopolitical concern and trade war remain in the center stage for global economy.
* The Bloomberg dollar index had its biggest two day slump since February 2018 as Federal Reserve hinted for easing path going ahead. Global central banks are now in Chorus of lower interest rates as after ECB, the Fed, BoJ and BoE monetary policy meet.
* The Bank of England acknowledged rising concerns over a no deal Brexit as it kept interest rates on hold and cut its near-term economic growth forecast to zero.
* Crude oil jumped the most this year, closing 5.4% higher, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran made “a very big mistake” following the downing of an American drone in the Persian Gulf. Trump later appeared to downplay the attack, saying a “loose and stupid” individual may have been culpable
USDINR JUNE FUT. :
* USDINR June futures consolidating near 20 days moving average at 69.72.
* Momentum oscillator, RSI of 14 days period given negative cross over and reversing from center line.
* The bias for the day remains range bound with downside support at 69.35 to 70.05
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HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475
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