The Indian rupee has managed to clinch gains for the second consecutive session, while finding support at the key 76.70 mark, amid the softening of the dollar index and the renewed buying witnessed in the domestic equities. Risk sentiments have improved as the greenback has pulled back from the recent two-year peak tested early this week. Markets are now anticipating the ECB to start increasing rates as early as the start of the third quarter, with inflation hitting record highs in the EU.
However the overall macroeconomic landscape suggests that there is a lot of nervousness in the market due to the geopolitical risks, accelerating inflation, and prospects of an EU ban on Russian crude oil imports which is likely to keep the Indian rupee under pressure. Furthermore, increasingly hawkish statements from the Fed officials are leading to concerns about higher interest rates for the year ahead. Considering the dynamics, we foresee the Indian rupee to hover in a range of 75.80-76.70 in the near term.