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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee Comments as of 01 February 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

Though the initial volatility submerged Nifty below our downsidemarker of 17600 for a while, the anticipated positivity was strong enough to keep the 17820 trajectory intact. We will begin the day with a base expectation of achieving the 17800 objective fully,with an optimistic target of 18000 in the near term. Downside Marker can continue to be near 17600, though it may be pushed higher to the 17700 vicinity once 17800 is cleared. Alternatively Slippage past 17600 may dilute all the positivity, but the prospects of a collapse need to be re considered only once wellabove 17820 or below 17400.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17000 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18500 for Calls and 16700 for Puts in weekly and at 17600 for Calls and 17600 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 15.94%, increased future index shorts by 22.03% and in index options by 2.15% in Call longs, -1.51% in Call short, -1.85% in Put longs and 3.91% in Put shorts.  

USD-INR outlook:

USDINR finally broke above the 81.59-81.8 band that had kept the lid on upside attempts,leading to a spike that pushed it above 82. However the inability to keep the gains byclose, takes away the momentum. This should mean that, though we might begin the day with USDINR re attempting upsides aiming 81.9, inability to float above 81.75 could render the trend sideways.  

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