EURINR June Futures: Buy at 84 SL 82.90 TGT 85.50 - HDFC Securities
Rupee: Consolidation before breakout
* Rupee ended May month with loss of 0.70% or 52 paise to 75.62 a dollar, even after strong dollar inflows in equities, higher crude oil and weaker domestic macro data weighed on rupee. However, rupee manages to restrict the loss as the month-end rebalancing kept dollar on the back foot amid strong dollar inflows. On Friday, after market, data of GDP came better than market expectation. GDP expanded 3.1% in the three months through March from a year ago, slower than the 4.1% expansion in the previous quarter. The annual expansion in the GDP at 4.2% in fiscal year 2019-20 is the lowest pace of growth in 11 years, as against a previously projected 5%.
* India’s forex reserves hit new record high to $490.044 billion for the week ending 22 May from $487.039 billion reported in previous week.
* Most of the Asia currencies gained on Friday even after President Donald Trump berated China for its treatment of Hong Kong and vowed to exit the World Health Organization yet left intact an initial trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.
* The USD Index finally broke out of its extended sideways range this week finally made new lows since 27 March, and falling as much as 1.52%, on continued optimism about global growth as global lockdowns continue to be relaxed. The material intensification of US China tensions failed to arrest the broad dollar’s decline. The Fed’s balance sheet expansions also downplay on dollar. Euro rallied on technical grounds alone, fundamental extensions may take some months after announcement of 750bn euro stimulus package by the region.
* The week will feature ECB central bank meeting and some key economic data released like PMI and US job data, while pandemic containment policies are being eased all over the world.
USDINR June Futures: Consolidation before breakout
* USDINR June future took support at 50 DMA and recent bottom placed at 75.08.
* Momentum oscillator, RSI given upward crossover and heading north indicating recovery in the pair.
* Momentum indicator, MACD heading towards zero line, suggest weakening of trend.
* The pair is expected to witness time wise correction with trading in the range of 76.50 to 75.50.
* Option distribution data suggests strong support at 75.
* Trading opportunity will come only after this range breakout.
EURINR June Futures: Buy at 84 SL 82.90 TGT 85.50
* EURINR June futures started forming bullish formation of higher top higher bottom sequence.
* The short term moving averages are placed above medium term moving averages.
* Momentum oscillator, RSI heading northward indicating positivity for the pair.
* Momentum indicator, MACD also crossed the zero line and heading higher adding strength in trend.
* We recommend buying EURINR June futures at 84 for target of 85.50 keeping stop loss at 82.90.
GBPINR June Futures: Buy above 94 SL 92.50 TGT 96
* GBPINR June futures retraced 50% of the March Rally. The pair is resisting near 20 DEMA.
* As the prior trend is up and recent correction is 50% from high, the trend for the pair remains bullish.
* For buying momentum, the pair needs to trade above 94 level.
* RSI and MACD given positive cross over and heading upward suggesting reversal after recent correction.
* We recommend Buying GBPINR June Futures above 94 keeping stop loss at 92.50 for target of 96.
JPYINR June Futures: Buy above 71.75 SL 70.75 TGT 73.60
* JPYINR June futures closed above short term moving average of 20 DEMA.
* The pair is trading in falling channel with resistance at 71.50 and resistance at 70.50.
* Momentum oscillator, RSI flattening above 50 suggesting consolidation in the pair.
* The prior trend of the pair is bullish we expect upward breakout.
* Short term traders can initiate long above 71.75 for target of 73.60 keeping stop loss at 70.75.
To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here
Please refer disclaimer at https://www.hdfcsec.com/article/disclaimer-1795
SEBI Registration number is INZ000171337
Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer