Rupee to open higher tracking Asia FX, upside broadly capped
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The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday, helped by an uptick in Asian peers, but is unlikely to build much on its initial advance, traders said.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.52-82.54 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.6050 in the previous session.
The USD/INR pair seems to have made a new range with support at 82.50 and 82.30 and resistance at 82.80 and 83.00, a spot trader said.
Based on Tuesday's session and the overall lack of volatility, 82.50 should hold for now, the trader added.
The rupee so far this week has been unable to build on the momentum it created last week. Persistent dollar demand, likely from oil companies and other importers, have boosted the USD/INR pair, per traders.
The Korean won led Asian currencies higher on Wednesday following a quiet U.S. session.
U.S. equities edged up, while expectations on what the Federal Reserve will do next week remained unchanged and the dollar index hovered in a narrow range around 104.
Interest rate bets further leaned towards a Fed rate-pause scenario next week (80% probability being priced now), said Yeap Jun Rong, a Singapore-based market strategist at IG Asia.
That is allowing the dollar "to continue on its near-term consolidation" path, while awaiting a key catalyst to drive further moves.
That catalyst could be the U.S. inflation data due on June 13 and the Fed rate decision the next day.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday set out rules to allow banks to offer non-deliverable forward contracts involving the rupee to resident Indians.
The central bank had announced its plans to expand the NDF market in April. Analysts expect the expansion to improve price discovery in India and provide better opportunity for residents to hedge.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.6; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.5 paise ** USD/INR NSE June futures settled on Tuesday at 82.6675 ** USD/INR June forward premium at 5.5 paise ** Dollar index at 104.08 ** Brent crude futures down 0.2% at $76.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.67% ** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures up 0.1% at 18,704 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $62.1mln worth of Indian shares on Jun. 5
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $55.7mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 5
