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Published on 22/01/2021 9:54:19 AM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Turmeric trading range for the day is 6212-6408 - Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 49448 as the U.S. dollar eased, reflecting relief over an orderly transition of power and amid bets on increased U.S. government spending under President Joe Biden's administration. Inflation expectations are on the rise, given the very dovish approach from U.S. Treasury secretary nominee Janet Yellen as well as Biden's stance towards fiscal stimulus. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged, raised growth projections and noted that risks to both economic activity and prices were skewed to the downside. India's imports of gold contracted 52% YoY in 2020. Certainly, the pandemic and high price did the damage. The last quarter displayed some early hope of demand returning ahead. Euro zone finance ministers pledged continued fiscal support for their economies, while focus in the United States remains on Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said there was no reason to alter the central bank's highly accommodative stance with the U.S. economy still far from its inflation and employment goals. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their bullish positions in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Jan. 12, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Physical gold in China was sold at a small premium for the first time since early 2020, as demand picked up ahead of the Chinese new year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.14% to settled at 5273 while prices down -86 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49259 and below same could see a test of 49070 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49701, a move above could see prices testing 49954.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49070-49954.
* Gold prices steadied as the U.S. dollar eased, reflecting relief over an orderly transition of power and amid bets on increased U.S. government spending.
* Inflation expectations are on the rise, given the very dovish approach from U.S. Treasury secretary nominee Janet Yellen as well as Biden's stance towards fiscal stimulus.
* India's imports of gold contracted 52% YoY in 2020. Certainly, the pandemic and high price did the damage.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 67300 as the dollar slipped, with investors awaiting the passage of U.S. President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package. Biden's top priority remains the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan to revive a pandemic-hit economy, but it will require approval from a divided Congress, where Democrats hold slim advantages in both the House and Senate. The dollar slipped to a near one-week low and benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remained steady after Biden's inauguration and following a speech by his nominee for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The number of people claiming jobless benefits in the U.S. fell last week but remained at historically high levels as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to take its toll. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 900,000 from 926,000 the week before – a figure that itself was revised downward from an initial estimate of 965,000. Continuing claims, which are reported with a one-month lag, also fell to 5.054 million, from a downwardly-revised 5.181 million. That confounded expectations for an increase to around 5.4 million. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged, raised growth projections and noted that risks to both economic activity and prices were skewed to the downside. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1% to settled at 11719 while prices up 310 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66888 and below same could see a test of 66476 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67780, a move above could see prices testing 68260.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66476-68260.
* Silver prices seen supported as the dollar slipped, with investors awaiting the passage of U.S. President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package.
* The dollar slipped to a near one-week low and benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remained steady after Biden's inauguration
* The number of people claiming jobless benefits in the U.S. fell last week but remained at historically high levels

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 3894 after data showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week, reigniting worries about pandemic restrictions cutting into fuel demand. U.S. oil output from major shale formations is expected to decline for the fourth straight month to about 7.52 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, the lowest since June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly forecast. Output at nearly all seven formations is expected to fall, driving an overall decline of about 90,000 bpd in February. OPEC's secretary general said he was cautiously optimistic the oil market would recover this year from the slump in demand brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Monthly meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - are there to stop an imbalance from re-emerging, OPEC's Mohammad Barkindo told. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, beat Russia to keep its ranking as China's top crude supplier in 2020, Chinese government data showed. Oil demand in China, the world's top oil importer, remained strong last year even as the coronavirus crisis hammered global appetite. Chinese imports rose 7.3% to a record of 542.4 million tonnes or 10.85 million barrels per day (bpd). Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.6% to settled at 1353 while prices down -16 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3869 and below same could see a test of 3843 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3914, a move above could see prices testing 3933.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3843-3933.
* Crude oil prices fell after data showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week, reigniting worries about pandemic restrictions cutting into fuel demand.
* U.S. shale oil output to drop 90,000 bpd to 7.52 mln bpd in Feb -EIA
* OPEC 'cautiously optimistic' oil market will recover in 2021

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 180.7 as higher gas prices around the world continued to prompt buyers to purchase near record amounts of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). That small gains came even forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand through early February. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. That compares with an eight-month high of 91.5 bcfd in December and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Even though the weather will remain milder than normal through early February, next week is still expected to be much colder than this week. Refinitiv projected that cold would boost average gas demand, including exports, to 125.6 bcfd next week from 119.5 bcfd this week. That forecast for next week, however, is lower than Refinitiv's 127.4 bcfd outlook. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.5 bcfd so far in January, just shy of December's 10.7-bcfd monthly record. Those exports came as global futures held near last week's highs when gas in Asia rose to an all-time high and Europe hit its highest since October 2018 due to extreme cold in both regions and numerous LNG supply issues. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.55% to settled at 6086 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 178.1 and below same could see a test of 175.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184.7, a move above could see prices testing 188.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 175.6-188.8.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for mostly mild weather and lower-than-normal heating demand through early February.
* That decline came even though much higher gas prices around the world continued to prompt buyers to purchase near record amounts of U.S. LNG
* EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 88.17 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from 90.76 bcfd in 2020 before rising to 89.66 bcfd in 2022.

Copper


Copper yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 614.85 as risk sentiment surged on hopes that U.S. President Joe Biden would introduce more economic stimulus into the world's biggest economy to remedy damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic. However, keeping metals prices in check is top consumer China's increasing new COVID-19 cases despite a flurry of recent measures to contain the outbreak in the northeast. China's refined copper production in December surged 10.9% year-on-year to a monthly record high, while annual output also set an all-time peak in 2020 as smelters recovered from the impact of COVID-19 and ramped up supply to meet resurgent demand. December refined copper output reached 986,000 tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, smashing the previous monthly record of 945,000 tonnes in November. Annual refined copper production in China, the world's top copper consumer, rose 7.4% in 2020 to 10.03 million tonnes, beating the previous peak in 2019 and exceeding 10 million tonnes for the first time. China's imports of copper concentrate from Australia dried up completely in December, customs data showed, as smelters shunned Australian supply amid tense bilateral ties. Imports of copper ores and concentrates from Australia were zero tonnes last month, according to General Administration of Customs data. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 45.89% to settled at 2801 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 612.6 and below same could see a test of 610.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 618, a move above could see prices testing 621.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 610.3-621.1.
* Copper prices advanced as risk sentiment surged on hopes that U.S. President Joe Biden would introduce more economic stimulus into the world's biggest economy
* Japan's copper cable sales, domestic and exports, fell 5.3% in December from a year earlier to 53,700 tonnes
* China's imports of Australian copper ore crash to zero in December

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 214.45 on profit booking after prices gained as many enterprises have cut production unexpectedly and conducted maintenance were mainly smelters in Huayuan area and smelters in Sichuan. The reason for this maintenance and production reduction is still the current high prices of zinc ore and smelters are unwilling to continue full production under low profits or even losses. For some companies that plan to conduct maintenance in February, the actual time to start maintenance and the expected amount of impact have not yet been determined. The dollar fell as risk appetite held up on optimism about a massive stimulus package under the new Joe Biden administration that will likely bolster a US economic recovery. Yellen said pandemic relief would take priority over tax increases, adding that the benefits of a relief package outweighed the expenses of a higher debt burden. China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year. In the full 2020, output totalled 6.1 million mt, up 4.44% from 2019. Zinc smelters produced 78,700 mt of zinc alloy in December, down 3.78% from the previous month. China's refined zinc output in December basically met expectations. Treatment charges (TCs) for domestic 50 grade zinc concentrate continued to decline in December. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.16% to settled at 1283 while prices down -1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 213.4 and below same could see a test of 212.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.7, a move above could see prices testing 218.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.1-218.7.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained as many enterprises have cut production unexpectedly.
* The dollar fell as risk appetite held up on optimism about a massive stimulus package under the new Joe Biden administration.
* China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.9% at 1340.4 amid expectations that Biden would deploy further economic stimulus to offset damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The global nickel market surplus rose to 2,000 tonnes in November from a revised 400 tonne surplus the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. For the first 11 months of 2020 there was a global surplus of 109,600 tonnes, compared with a deficit of 37,600 tonnes in the same period the previous year, Lisbon-based INSG added. Indonesia remained China's second-biggest nickel ore supplier in 2020, Chinese customs data showed, despite the Southeast Asian country's ban on exports of the material. Arrivals of Indonesian nickel ore into China totalled 3.4 million tonnes last year, the General Administration of Customs reported. That was down 85.8% from 2019 but still second only to the Philippines at 31.98 million tonnes, and ahead of New Caledonia in third. Indonesian shipments were 1.98 million tonnes in January and February combined, likely the last cargoes to depart Indonesia before the ban came into force on Jan. 1, 2020, although some may have been delayed by coronavirus curbs. The data then shows a trickle of Indonesian nickel ore imports in every subsequent month of last year, including 78,245 tonnes for December. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 80.7% to settled at 1339 while prices up 11.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1333.9 and below same could see a test of 1327.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1347.1, a move above could see prices testing 1353.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1327.5-1353.9.
* Nickel gained amid expectations that Biden would deploy further economic stimulus to offset damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
* Global nickel market surplus rises in November – INSG
* Indonesia stays China's second-biggest nickel ore supplier despite export ban

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 163.05 as investors' risk appetite improved, optimistic expectations that the US will announce additional fiscal stimulus measures soon after Biden took office. Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.28 million tonnes in December, the IAI added. China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed, snapping three months of declines and extending 2020's position as a record year. The world's biggest aluminium producer, usually has little need for overseas supply but a rapid demand recovery after the coronavirus outbreak saw Shanghai prices surge above London, opening up an arbitrage for cheaper imports. The arb closed in the final quarter, but December arrivals of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were still the highest since September at 265,569 tonnes, the General Administration of Customs data showed. That was up from 188,973 tonnes in November and up 147.3 year-on-year. Full-year shipments in 2020 were 2.7 million tonnes, up 318.7% on 2019. Imports – which include both primary aluminium and unwrought alloy – surpassed the previous annual record, set in 2009, in just 11 months of 2020, with China turning net importer in July and August for the first time in over a decade. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 68.33% to settled at 675 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 162.2 and below same could see a test of 161.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 163.8, a move above could see prices testing 164.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 161.4-164.6.
* Aluminium gained as investors' risk appetite improved, optimistic expectations that the US will announce additional fiscal stimulus measures soon
* Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year
* China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.19% at 971.1 due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1131 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 61.29% to settled at 50 while prices down -1.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 967.9 and below same could see a test of 964.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 975.6, a move above could see prices testing 980.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 964.6-980.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1131 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.68% at 4578 supported by signs of strong demand from both the domestic processing sector as well as the export market. Support also seen after weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.234 million tonnes, topping market forecasts that ranged from 400,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. December's imports came in at 7.524 million tonnes, down 27% from 9.54 million tonnes a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4646 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.02% to settled at 191440 while prices up 31 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4556 and below same could see a test of 4534 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4595, a move above could see prices testing 4612.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4534-4612.
* Soyabean gained supported by signs of strong demand from both the domestic processing sector as well as the export market.
* Support also seen after weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.234 million tonnes, topping market forecasts that ranged from 400,000 to 1.2 million tonnes.
* China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4646 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 1078.7 as the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry. The outbreak of avian influenza in Parbhani district has been among poultry, while AI has been confirmed from crows in Mumbai, Thane, Dapoli, Maharashtra. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas. Largest exporter Argentina and Uruguay have also reported lower production of soybean this year, soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 200,000 to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January.. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1082 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.52% to settled at 37360 while prices down -7.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1070 and below same could see a test of 1061 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1090, a move above could see prices testing 1101.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1061-1101.
* Ref soyoil prices dropped as pressure seen amid the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares.
* Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry
* Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1082 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 930.4 as dismal Jan. 1-20 exports data dragged the market. However downside seen limited as heavy rains and floods in the top two producing countries stoked supply concerns. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 41% to 632,827 tonnes from the same period in December, AmSpec Agri Malaysia said. Exports during Jan. 1-15 had also declined 42%. Contracting demand outweighed fears of supply disruption as flooding in several parts of Malaysia hurt output. The high rainfall is delaying harvesting in flooded areas, jeopardizing the road conditions and affecting evacuation. The market will now wait for more export and production outlook to reinforce sentiment for January end-palm oil inventories in Malaysia. Indonesia's CPO exports to Malaysia rose by 56.63% to 142,654 tons in 2020 from the previous year to compensate for the deficit in CPO from the second largest producer. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 3.24 million tonnes by Jan. 17, up from 3.10 million by the same time last year, data published by the European Commission showed. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 15 fell 41.8 percent to 426,276 tonnes from 732,780 tonnes shipped during December 1 – 15. Malaysia kept its export duty for crude palm oil at 8% for February, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 11.6 Rupees to end at 932.4 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.13% to settled at 2249 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 925.4 and below same could see a test of 920.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 936.7, a move above could see prices testing 943.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 920.4-943.
* Crude palm oil dropped as dismal Jan. 1-20 exports data dragged the market.
* However downside seen limited as heavy rains and floods in the top two producing countries stoked supply concerns.
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 41% to 632,827 tonnes from the same period in December.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 11.6 Rupees to end at 932.4 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 5636 on short covering after prices dropped after update India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In oilseed crops, mustard-rapeseed production area jumped from 66.62 lakh hectare last year to 72.39 lakh hectare. The Union Agriculture Ministry has set a target of sowing mustard in 75 lakh hectare area during the current Rabi season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6232.9 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.1% to settled at 15010 while prices up 14 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5592 and below same could see a test of 5547 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5664, a move above could see prices testing 5691.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5547-5691.
* Mustard seed gained on short covering after prices dropped as India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level.
* Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6232.9 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 6288 due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year. However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5931.8 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.91% to settled at 8140 while prices down -42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6250 and below same could see a test of 6212 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6348, a move above could see prices testing 6408.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6212-6408.
* Turmeric dropped due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year.
* However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area
* Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5931.8 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 13200 due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. Cues coming from spot market of improved demand from domestic stockiest as a recovery of demand during the festive season on the eve of makar Sankranti and Ramjan toward January to mid-may can be seen which also supported prices. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12963.15 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.09% to settled at 1464 while prices up 140 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13065 and below same could see a test of 12935 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13270, a move above could see prices testing 13345.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 12935-13345.
* Jeera prices gained due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.
* Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.
* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12963.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 21550 as support seen after USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. Chairman and Managing Director of the CCI, Pradeep Kumar Agarwal, said the facility has been introduced to ensure price security for textile mills. Textile mills can buy cotton in multiples of 100 bales through e-auctions, and lock-in the cotton price for 30 days without any charge. The units can lock-in the prices for 60 days from the date of contract by paying ₹250 more for each bale; for 90 days by paying ₹500 for each bale. In spot market, Cotton gained by 90 Rupees to end at 21000 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 33.38% to settled at 4711 while prices up 120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21470 and below same could see a test of 21390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21610, a move above could see prices testing 21670.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21390-21670.
* Cotton prices gained as support seen after USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks raising hopes of exports from India.
* India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season.
* Cotton Corporation introduces lock-in period for prices
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 90 Rupees to end at 21000 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 4472 as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4465 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.86% to settled at 34080 while prices up 57 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4413 and below same could see a test of 4355 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4507, a move above could see prices testing 4543.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4355-4543.
* Chana gained as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4465 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com