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Published on 23/09/2020 11:32:26 AM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Rmseed trading range for the day is 5327-5453. By Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 50381 as a broader market sell-off driven by uncertainty over more U.S. fiscal stimulus pressured prices. The U.S. Congress has for weeks remained deadlocked over the size and shape of a fifth coronavirus-response bill, on top of the approximately $3 trillion already enacted into law. U.S. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said he is “completely” on board with keeping interest rates at their current near-zero level even into 2023, but worries a vow to keep them there even longer risks excesses and imbalances in financial markets. Last week the Fed promised not to raise rates until the economy reaches full employment and inflation is on track to moderately exceed the Fed’s 2% target. Kaplan, who dissented, said Monday he believes the economy will be on track for full employment and stable prices by late 2022 or into 2023. “I’m a big believer if you make a commitment like this, you need to fulfill it, unless there’s an extraordinary reason why you can’t,” Kaplan told. The Federal Reserve kicked off its own effort to update community lending standards for banks. The move by the central bank to solicit input on potential rule changes for the Community Reinvestment Act comes after other U.S. bank regulators already put forward separate rule updates. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.48% to settled at 7466 while prices down -90 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50112 and below same could see a test of 49842 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50669, a move above could see prices testing 50956.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49842-50956.
* Gold prices dropped as a broader market sell-off driven by uncertainty over more U.S. fiscal stimulus pressured prices.
* The U.S. Congress has for weeks remained deadlocked over the size and shape of a fifth coronavirus-response bill
* Fed’s Kaplan said he is “completely” on board with keeping interest rates at their current near-zero level even into 2023

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 61213 as the dollar moved higher amid mounting concerns about a surge in coronavirus cases in Europe and fears of widespread lockdown measures. The dollar moved up on safe-haven demand as virus jitters haunted sentiment and took a toll of riskier assets such as equities. The Federal Reserve kicked off its own effort to update community lending standards for banks. The move by the central bank to solicit input on potential rule changes for the Community Reinvestment Act comes after other U.S. bank regulators already put forward separate rule updates. The Fed is soliciting feedback on how to update the rules to ensure lower-income communities are still supported by banks while reflecting the ways technology has changed banking in recent years. U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early September, according to a survey, which also showed the upcoming November presidential election was starting to have an impact on expectations about future economic prospects. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 78.9 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 74.1 in August. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.3% to settled at 15575 while prices down -103 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 59858 and below same could see a test of 58504 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62278, a move above could see prices testing 63344.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 58504-63344.
* Silver dropped as the dollar moved higher amid mounting concerns about a surge in coronavirus cases in Europe and fears of widespread lockdown measures.
* The dollar moved up on safe-haven demand as virus jitters haunted sentiment and took a toll of riskier assets such as equities.
* The Federal Reserve kicked off its own effort to update community lending standards for banks.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.11% at 2920 as the latest tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico lost strength, but worries about fuel demand persisted with flare-ups around the globe in coronavirus cases. U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week, and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen for a seventh consecutive week. U.S. crude oil production rose last week for the second week in a row, growing to 10.9 million barrels per day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Meanwhile, crude inventories fell to 496 million barrels, their lowest since April, the data showed. Gasoline inventories also fell, dropping to 231.5 million barrels, their lowest since November. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline by about 68,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October to 7.64 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Output at every formation is expected to fall in October, except the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico, where production is expected to rise by about 23,000 bpd to 4.17 million bpd, the data showed. That would be the smallest increase since production declined in May, the data showed. A record amount of U.S. crude oil is likely to be discharged at Chinese ports this month, and then volumes are likely to fall off sharply as the relative price advantage enjoyed by U.S. exporters fades. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.72% to settled at 1431 while prices up 32 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 2882 and below same could see a test of 2844 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2962, a move above could see prices testing 3004.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 2844-3004.
* Crude oil gained as the latest tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico lost strength.
* U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week, and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen for a seventh consecutive week.
* U.S. crude oil production rose last week for the second week in a row, growing to 10.9 million barrels per day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 134.4 on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due to a reduction in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Gas flows to LNG export plants declined due to planned maintenance at Dominion Energy Inc's Cove Point in Maryland, the continued outage at Cameron in Louisiana and as some ships steer clear of Tropical Storm Beta, which is expected to lash the Texas and Louisiana coasts this week. The EIA projected U.S. natural gas output would decline for a second month in a row to 80.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October. That would be down over 0.4 bcfd from its forecast for September. Output from the big shale fields hit a monthly all-time high of 86.8 bcfd in November. U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana in 2020 were expected to drop to their lowest since 1995 as near record production and ample storage reduce market worries about future price spikes and supply shortages. Gas speculators, meanwhile, increased their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the seventh time in eight weeks to the highest since May 2017 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18% to settled at 8803 while prices down -0.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 131.7 and below same could see a test of 129.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 138.3, a move above could see prices testing 142.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 129.1-142.3.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due to a reduction in LNG exports.
* The EIA projected U.S. natural gas output would decline for a second month in a row to 80.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October.
* U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana in 2020 were expected to drop to their lowest since 1995 as near record production

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 531.35 on expectations of strong Chinese demand, although worries about fresh coronavirus-led lockdowns capped gains. LME copper stocks available for purchase dropped by 25% yesterday. Total LME stocks remain at levels not seen since 2005. Despite that, official prices closed lower in the last session, thanks to markets reducing risk as global coronavirus cases rise. China, is expected to increase imports after data showed industrial output accelerated the most in eight months in August, while retail sales grew for the first time this year. The premium for cash LME copper over the three-month contract spiked by Friday's close to $40.25 a tonne, its highest since March 2019, indicating tight supplies. It pared gains to $31. The global world refined copper market showed a 192,000 tonnes deficit in June, compared with a 36,000 tonnes deficit in May, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin. The premium for cash LME copper over the three-month contract spiked by Friday's close to $40.25 a tonne, its highest since March 2019, indicating tight supplies. It pared gains on Monday to $31. China’s copper cathode output rose sharply in August due to minimal maintenance and ample supply of copper scrap. Survey showed that China produced 810,500 mt of copper cathode in August, up 8.14% from July and 5.58% from a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.9% to settled at 2849 while prices up 6.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 526.9 and below same could see a test of 522.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 534.1, a move above could see prices testing 536.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 522.5-536.9.
* Copper prices rose on expectations of strong Chinese demand, although worries about fresh coronavirus-led lockdowns capped gains.
* LME copper stocks available for purchase dropped by 25%, total LME stocks remain at levels not seen since 2005.
* The global world refined copper market showed a 192,000 tonnes deficit in June, compared with a 36,000 tonnes deficit in May.

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 193.95 recovered after prices dropped as climbing COVID-19 cases triggered worries among investors, and risk-aversion demand boosted the US dollar index to rebound to a six-week high. Treatment charges (TC) of domestic zinc concentrate has shown a general downward trend since August 28, according to survey. Treatment charges of domestic zinc concentrate stood at 5,300 yuan/metal mt as of September 18, 250 yuan/ton lower than that of August 28. Output of zinc concentrate stood at 280,300 mt in August, down 3.1% from the previous month and down 22.1% from the previous year. Treatment charges of imported ore has been declining since August, which reflects the tight supply of imported ore to a certain extent, and the balance of domestic ore needs to be adjusted by imports. China’s refined zinc output stood at 509,100 mt in August, rising 16,300 or up 3.3% on month and up 1.98% on year. Output totalled 3.87 million mt in the first eight months of this year, up 3.68% from the same period last year. China’s refined zinc output in August was higher than expectations as the treatment charges (TCs) for domestic zinc concentrate (Zn 50%) rose to 5,450 yuan/mt (Zn content) from the previous month. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.79% to settled at 1739 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 192.4 and below same could see a test of 190.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.5, a move above could see prices testing 197.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 190.8-197.
* Zinc recovered after prices dropped as climbing COVID-19 cases triggered worries among investors, and risk-aversion demand boosted the US dollar index
* Output of zinc concentrate stood at 280,300 mt in August, down 3.1% from the previous month and down 22.1% from the previous year.
* Treatment charges of imported ore has been declining since August, which reflects the tight supply of imported ore to a certain extent.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 1067.8 as prices seen supported with investors monitoring progress toward a new coronavirus relief bill. Rising global COVID-19 cases that may lead to renewed lockdowns and uncertainty over more fiscal stimulus stoked worries about the economic recovery from the pandemic and drove up risk aversion sentiment in the market. Investors grew more anxious about the pandemic as the UK is reportedly considering another national lockdown as daily new infections rise. The US Congress has for weeks remained deadlocked over the size and shape of a fifth coronavirus-response bill, on top of the approximately $3 trillion already enacted into law. China’s refined nickel output declined 2.25% or 330 mt from July, but rose 12.94% from a year earlier, to 14,300 mt in August. Output at Gansu smelters shrank 3.85% on the month, while that at Lianning and Shandong smelters was little changed as they kept normal production. Output at Xinjiang smelters jumped 58.9% on the month, recovering to the level in June, as COVID-19-driven restrictions were lifted. Smelters in Tianjin have suspended production from August due to shortage of raw materials, while those in Guangxi continued to halt production. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.09% to settled at 996 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1059.5 and below same could see a test of 1051.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1075, a move above could see prices testing 1082.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1051.2-1082.2.
* Nickel prices seen supported with investors monitoring progress toward a new coronavirus relief bill.
* Investors grew more anxious about the pandemic as the UK is reportedly considering another national lockdown as daily new infections rise.
* Smelters in Tianjin have suspended production from August due to shortage of raw materials, while those in Guangxi continued to halt production.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 144.25 on expectations of better demand in coming months as China, enters its peak season when construction activity is expected to pick up. China’s one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) were kept unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively. China approved just 121,000 mt of aluminium scrap for imports in its 12th batch of approvals, bringing the total approved amounts to 818,000 mt so far this year, according to the China Solid Waste and Chemicals Management. High aluminium prices suppressed the consumption and the upward momentum of aluminium prices is temporarily limited. The world's top private-sector aluminium producer China Hongqiao Group Ltd has started production at a greener aluminium plant in the southwestern province of Yunnan, cutting its reliance on coal-fired power. China's aluminium production in August rose 2.3% from a month earlier, setting a record high for a second month, fuelled by increasing output at smelters. US is dropping plans for a 10% tariff on certain types of Canadian aluminium that President Donald Trump announced just last month. The US Federal Reserve vowed last week to keep interest rates near zero to support the coronavirus-hit economy, and the Japanese and British central banks also decides to keep ample liquidity. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.81% to settled at 345 while prices up 0.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 143.2 and below same could see a test of 142 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 145.3, a move above could see prices testing 146.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 142-146.2.
* Aluminium gained on expectations of better demand in coming months as China, enters its peak season when construction activity is expected to pick up.
* China’s one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) were kept unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively.
* China approved just 121,000 mt of aluminium scrap for imports in its 12th batch of approvals, bringing the total approved amounts to 818,000 mt

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 936.1 as demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector will remain weak in India, as concerns are high in India as we are now in second place with the second-largest number of confirmed cases in the world, 4,204,613. The rise in cases comes as the government continues to lift restrictions to try to promote an economy that lost millions of jobs when the virus hit in March. The sentiments remain weak for Mentha oil prices as selling pressure seen after GlobalData data revealed that UK cosmetics and toiletries sector will see a €1. 8bn (£1.7bn) value decline in 2020, after a tough year, largely determined by the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. But growth will come back in 2021 with the right investments. Downside may be restricted as support can be seen after FAFAI has pointed out that as people across the world are becoming more conscious about the products they consume in the wake of the pandemic Covid-19, FAFAI has taken up this step to ensure they only use ingredients that are considered safe in their products for domestic consumption as well as for exports. New arrivals are likely to pick up. Arrivals are likely to touch 100 drums per day. During the peak arrival season, 400-500 drums will collectively arrive daily in the markets of Chandausi, Sambhal and Barabanki in Uttar Pradesh. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.73% to settled at 138 while prices up 2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 943.6 and below same could see a test of 921.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 978.6, a move above could see prices testing 991.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 926.2-944.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.3 Rupees to end at 1087.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector will remain weak in India
* GlobalData data revealed that UK cosmetics and toiletries sector will see a €1. 8bn (£1.7bn) value decline in 2020.
* New arrivals are likely to pick up and arrivals are likely to touch 100 drums per day.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 3986 tracking rise in overseas prices on strong demand from China amid worries about deteriorating US crop condition. Concerns over crop quality conditions in the dry Midwest ahead of rains from Hurricane Laura compounded with strong export demand from China” have boosted soybeans. According to the Fourth Advance Estimates of Production of Commercial Crops for 2019-20, released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the production of soybean is estimated at 112.15 lakh tonnes, 15% lower as compare to 132.68 lakh tonnes during the last year. Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has come up with first advance estimates for Soybean and estimated Soybean production for 2020-21 to 122.47 lakh tonnes, which is 32% higher than the last year actual production of 93.06 lakh tonnes. SOPA, expects a crop damage of 10-12% for the Soybean on account of heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, the largest soybean-producing State. Based on a quick field survey of rain-hit areas in MP, SOPA said the most affected districts are Indore, Dewas, Ujjain, Dhar, Sehore, Harda, Shajapur, Mandsaur and Neemuch. Some damage is also seen in other places. However, the damage is negligible in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.12% to settled at 43335 while prices down -31 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3895 and below same could see a test of 3868 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3945, a move above could see prices testing 3968.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3917-4053.
* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices on strong demand from China amid worries about deteriorating US crop condition.
* Soybean processors body anticipates 12% crop loss in MP on heavy rains
* The production of soybean is estimated at 112.15 lakh tonnes, 15% lower as compare to 132.68 lakh tonnes during the last year.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -59 Rupees to 3939 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 934.1 as prices seen supported due to the pick up in spot demand following relaxations in the lockdown. Soybean oil imports in August are estimated to have dropped to about 391,000 tons from 484,525 tons a month earlier. India’s total edible oil imports probably slumped to 1.3 million tons compared with 1.52 million tons in July. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) stated today that the imports of vegetable oils stood at 13.70 lakh tonnes in August 2020, down 14% compared to August 2019. Edible oil imports stood at 13.08 lakh tonnes, down 14.11% on year. The local edible oil imports had hit an 11 month high of 15.17 lakh tonnes in July 2020. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. Aug soybean crush fell by 4.48 percent m-o-m to 165.055 million bushels from 172.794 million bushels in July 2020, below market expectation. Crush of soybean in Aug was lower by 1.80 percent y-o-y compared to Aug 2019 figure of 168.085 million bushels. Soy oil stocks in U.S. at the end of Aug fell 6.18 percent m-o-m to 1.519 billion lbs compared to 1.619 billion lbs in end July 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.72% to settled at 34910 while prices up 19.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 922 and below same could see a test of 906 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 947, a move above could see prices testing 956.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 921-945.
* Ref soyoil seen supported due to the pick up in spot demand following relaxations in the lockdown.
* India’s total edible oil imports probably slumped to 1.3 million tons compared with 1.52 million tons in July.
* U.S. August soy oil end stocks fell 6.18 percent m-o-m: NOPA
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 932.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 793.4 as fears over new coronavirus restrictions in Europe hit sentiment. Shipments from Malaysia, which jumped this month, are expected to be steady until October, with arrivals to top buyer India expected to improve ahead of the Diwali festival there. Palm oil imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totalled 1.41 million tonnes by Sept. 20, up from 1.32 million tonnes in the previous season, official EU data showed. In top buyer India, seasonal demand ahead of the Diwali festival remains uncertain as the number of coronavirus infections surge past 5 million, raising fears of another lockdown to contain the outbreak. Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-15 rose 12% from the month before, according to data released by cargo surveyors. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-15 rose 12.2 percent to 745,565 tonnes from 664,392 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Palm oil imports by top buyer India probably fell from a 10-month high as a slow recovery of the food services industry curtailed demand for the world’s most-used vegetable oil. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at 3636 while prices up 18.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 781.3 and below same could see a test of 767.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 802.6, a move above could see prices testing 810.4.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 781.1-804.1.
* Crude palm oil prices dropped as fears over new coronavirus restrictions in Europe hit sentiment.
* Shipments from Malaysia, which jumped this month, are expected to be steady until October, with arrivals to top buyer India expected to improve
* Palm oil imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totalled 1.41 million tonnes
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -6.9 Rupees to end at 801.1 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 5377 on profit booking after prices gained due to good demand of mustard oil in the physical market amid steady crushing activities seemed to have supported uptrend in prices. Declining mandi arrivals too have supported the market sentiments. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India has requested the Centre to bring mustard under the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana. Under the scheme, the state pays farmers the difference between a crop's modal price and minimum support price, if the modal price falls below the MSP. The government credits the amount directly into the accounts of registered farmers. SEA believes that the move will not only provide minimum support price to mustard farmers but also solve the storage problem which the government faces for storing the procured commodity. This will also ensure proper availability in the spot markets and oil millers. As per Fourth Advance Estimates for 2019-20 for Foodgrains production released on August 19, 2020 by Ministry of Agriculture, Mustard production has been estimated at 91.16 lakh tonnes which is lower by around 1.51% compared to 92.57 lakh tonnes produced last year. India’s Rapeseed meal export rose by 21% to 1.48 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during July. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.78% to settled at 30830 while prices down -25 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5293 and below same could see a test of 5265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5343, a move above could see prices testing 5365.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5327-5453.
* Mustard seed dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to good demand of mustard oil amid steady crushing activities
* Declining mandi arrivals too have supported the market sentiments.
* Mustard production has been estimated at 91.16 lakh tonnes which is lower by around 1.51% compared to 92.57 lakh tonnes produced last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.1 Rupees to end at 5536 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 5788 as supply improved in the spot markets as a result of increased mandi arrivals. Pressure also seen amid reports of higher carry forwards stocks from last year due to higher production. Production for the marketing year 2020-21 is expected to be around 5.20 lakh tonnes on the preliminary basis as against last year’s production of 5.35 lakh tonnes. Turmeric prices trading lower owing to decline in demand from exporters and bulk buyers such as spice manufacturers amid the ongoing lockdown. However, there is good demand from domestic market anticipating high demand in the coming months due to Turmeric’s increasing awareness as immunity booster. On export front, Turmeric exports are likely to remain lower compared to previous year as demand from export destinations such as the US and West Asia is likely to fall due to outbreak of Corona virus. On export front, India exported 1.10 lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (April- January) a decrease of around 4% from the same period of last year. India exported around 0.09 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in January 2020 which is 15% higher than 0.08 lakh tonnes shipped in January 2019. However, in January 2020, Turmeric exports reported at 0.09 lakh tonnes, 39% lower than 0.15 lakh tonnes recorded in the previous month Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.24% to settled at 10450 while prices down -44 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5844 and below same could see a test of 5792 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5946, a move above could see prices testing 5996.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5646-5922.
* Turmeric prices dropped as supply improved in the spot markets as a result of increased mandi arrivals.
* Pressure also seen amid reports of higher carry forwards stocks from last year due to higher production.
* Production for the marketing year 2020-21 is expected to be around 5.20 lakh tonnes on the preliminary basis.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5550 Rupees gained 20 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 13605 as higher production in the current year weighed on prices. The Jeera crop output is said to be good and as per market estimates, it is expected to increase by 10% to 4.4 lakh tonnes in MY 2020-21 (Apr-Mar). However, decreased arrivals and stable demand limiting the downside. According to the third advance estimates for the rabi crop in Gujarat, Jeera production in the state is seen rising to 3.88 lakh tonnes in the 2019-20 season. In the 2019-20 Rabi season, acreage in Gujarat as on January 27, 2020, is reported at 4.88 lakh hectares, higher by 40% from 3.47 lakh hectares a year ago. Revival in export buying in the global markets, opening of the retail markets and current supply against the demand has supported Jeera prices at lower levels. Along with China, UAE and Vietnam have also witnessed an incline in demand for Indian Jeera. Moreover, export buying from the European Nations for Indian Cumin seed is also expected to pick up, as the production in Syria has been reported to be lower by 25-30 percent this year compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Jeera exports from India are also expected to pick up in the United States during the coming weeks. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.64% to settled at 2097 while prices down -55 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14025 and below same could see a test of 13965 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14140, a move above could see prices testing 14195.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13445-13775.
* Jeera prices dropped as higher production in the current year weighed on prices.
* However, decreased arrivals and stable demand limiting the downside
* The Jeera crop output is said to be good and as per market estimates, it is expected to increase by 10% to 4.4 lakh tonnes in MY 2020-21 (Apr-Mar).
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 8.9 Rupees to end at 13620 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 18070 on concern over crop damage reported in Haryana, Telangana and Maharashtra after heavy rainfall. According to the Fourth Advance Estimates of Production of Commercial Crops for 2019-20, released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare states that production of cotton is estimated at 35.49 million bales (of 170 kg each) in the current year, much higher than 28.04 million bales produced last year. With heavy rains lashing Telangana over two weeks during the mid of August, farmers growing cotton are facing threats from parawilt and phytophthora, respectively. Cotton, which has been sown on over 60 lakh acres in the State, is vulnerable to parawilt, a physiological disorder, due to prolonged waterlogging of the fields. Cotton harvesting in Malwa and neighbouring areas in Punjab may be delayed by 15 days due to heavy rainfall and labour shortage amid apprehensions over spread of corona virus. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has decided to sell a part of the surplus stock of about 15 to 20 lakh bales to Bangladesh, that would take place on a government-to-government basis and the shipments could start from next month onwards. Export prices will be decided by the two governments using the Cotlook index. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.56% to settled at 760 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 17950 and below same could see a test of 17880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 18080, a move above could see prices testing 18140.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 17760-18260.
* Cotton prices gained on concern over crop damage reported in Haryana, Telangana and Maharashtra after heavy rainfall.
* Cotton harvesting in Malwa and neighbouring areas in Punjab may be delayed by 15 days due to heavy rainfall and labour shortage
* Production of cotton is estimated at 35.49 million bales (of 170 kg each) in the current year, much higher than 28.04 million bales produced last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -70 Rupees to end at 17410 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 5145 due to less imports, NAFED selling on higher prices and allocation of additional 3 lakh ton in buffer stock. Improved demand from bulk buyers/stockiest following onset of the festival season amid lower supplies due to slack arrivals supported the market sentiments. NAFED Chana sale at higher prices also supported the prices in Chana. NAFED sold out Chana in the range of Rs. 4901-5071/qtl. During the last week of August spell of heavy rain damaged the Urad in central and western India. Excess rainfall in many of districts of Madhya Pradesh and some parts of Karnataka has led to stagnation of water in the fields of Moong and Urad causing damage to the crop. As per 4th advance estimate released by the Ministry of Agriculture Chana production in 2019-20 has been estimated at 113.5 lakh tonnes which 14% higher than the production of 99.4 lakh tonnes in 2018-19. Chana import for 2020-21 (Apr-May) stood at 0.06 lakh tonnes as against 0.50 lakh tonnes imported during the corresponding period of the previous year. Import and export in month of May 2020 reported 0.06 lakh tonne and 0.56 lakh tonne respectively. After three years of drought, Australia will see its crop production spike in 2020-21, according to the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.16% to settled at 63990 while prices up 40 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5056 and below same could see a test of 4984 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5175, a move above could see prices testing 5222.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5065-5217.
* Chana gained due to less imports, NAFED selling on higher prices and allocation of additional 3 lakh ton in buffer stock.
* Improved demand from bulk buyers/stockiest following onset of the festival season amid lower supplies due to slack arrivals supported the market sentiments.
* The consumption of gram has increased due to the inclusion of gram in the free grain distribution scheme started in the Corona period
* In Delhi spot market, chana remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 5063.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

 

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