NCDEX Coriander Future price has traded bearish during the month of April owing to higher new arrivals in the domestic market. Moreover, lower demand for Coriander seed was witnessed with shutting down of the APMC markets in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat due to lockdown situation in India. Though the demand in the pharmacy sector was steady, however, local buying and exports remained sluggish in India and in the global front respectively. By 13th May, NCDEX Coriander Future price closed at Rs.6870/quintal, lower by 4.63% compared Rs.7188/quintal reported on 31st March.
Fundamentally for the month ahead, we are expecting NCDEX Coriander futures to witness bullish trend as the export demand from India is expected to be seasonally higher during the months of June and July. The APMC markets in the above states is expected to remain closed until end the May month, however, the stocks from last year has been reported to lower whichis expected to support prices in the coming weeks. Coriander production for 2021-22 (marketing year) is estimated at 3.92 lakh tonnes MT (98 lakh bags) compared to last year’s 3.82 lakh tonnes (95 lakh bags, 1 bag = 40 kg). Higher production in Gujarat has compensated for the losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan by 15% and 10% respectively dueto decline in area, Buyers are currently reported to be active 6900-7000 levels in the futures market with the Kota market spot price is reported to be around 6900-7000 levels as well. This clearly indicates that the domestic trend for coriander seed is expected to remain bullish for the months ahead. With unlocking of the European and United States markets, demand for Indian coriander seed is expected to remain higher during the coming months. Additionally, the Indian rupee is still reported in the lower side which makes it more attractive for the international buyers to buy Indian coriander seed over Russia and Bulgaria.
On a weekly time, frame, NCDEX Dhaniya (Jun) future had given breakout of Symmetrical Triangle pattern and again retested the upper band of the pattern with Hammer candlesticks, which indicates a bullish set-up in the counter. In addition, price has been taking support of 50% Fibonacci Retracement level & 21 Exponential Moving Averages, which confirm bullish momentum in the near future. Moreover, an oscillator Stochastic is also supportive for the long position with positive crossover. Furthermore, the RS| indicator has also sustained above 50 levels which indicates bullish strength in the near term. Hence, based on above technical structure one can initiate a long position in NCDEX Dhaniya (Jun) future at CMP 6958 or a fall in the price till 6850 levels can be used as buying opportunity for the upside target of 7900. However, the bullish view will be negated if NCDEX Dhaniya (Jun) future close below the support level of 6450.
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