NCDEX Chana Future prices has been trading bullish during the month of September, closing at Rs.5265/quintal by 24" September. It is higher by 7.38% compared to Rs.4903/quintal reported on 31* August. Lower supplies and increased festive demand in the domestic markets brought long accumulation in NCDEX Chana futures. Moreover, NCDEX Chana prices also started to witness uptrend as NAFED continue to procure high amounts of Chana after the government of India had declared Rs.1 lakh stimulus package for the agriculture sector.
Fundamentally for the month ahead, NCDEX Chana futures is estimated to remain bullish due to higher buying of Basan and Chana Dal, lower imports and declining carry forward stocks from last year (2019-20). Imports of Chana and Chickpeas (Chole), from Australia and Canada is expected to be lower this year (2020-21), as India is moving towards in becoming more self-reliant and expected to improve domestic production inthe years to come, Moreover, imports from Australia during the Indian Chana sowing period (Nov-Jan) is forecasted to be lower, which is estimated to create a supply tightness scenario in the domestic market. The Government of India has also raised the MSP of Gram (Chana + Chickpeas) to Rs,5100/quintal (2020-21) from Rs.4875/quintal (2019-20) which will boost sowing. Monsoon and yield reports of Kharif crops plays a critical role as well in determining the movement of the agricultural commodities. It will eventually be the key to determine the sowing of the rabi crops during the later winter season. However, continued rainfall beyond Sep’20 is expected to bring crop damage and could delay sowing of Chana. In addition, Chana supplies in the local mandis and has been reportedly lower with higher festive buying till Diwali; which is also expected to support upside movement in the spot and future prices in the coming month. Overall, we expect bullish trend in NCDEX Chana Futures for the month ahead,
On the daily timeframe, NCDEX Chana (Oct) has sustained above its 20*50 Day “Simple Moving Average”which confirms bullish presence in the counter. Moreover, price has been trading above its “Ichimoku Cloud” which indicates strength, Furthermore, Super Trend (7,1) has shown a buy signal which confirms that the bulls are in control. Also, momentum indicator Stochastic (6) has shown a positive crossover, which confirms bullishness in the counter. Additionally, price has been trading above its “Parabolic SAR” which indicates positive momentum in the counter. So, based on the above technical structure one can initiate a long position in NCDEX Chana (Oct) future at CMP 5300 or a fallin the prices till 5240 levels can be used as a buying opportunity for the upside target of 5900. However, the bullish view will be negated if NCDEX Chana (Oct) closes below the support of 5000.
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