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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 60145 following the release of the U.S. April housing data, which showed mixed activity in housing starts and building permits. U.S. housing starts rose 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.401 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. At the same time, building permits, which are a precursor to future projects, were down 1.5% at 1.416 million units in April after March’s upwardly revised total of 1.437 million. Physical gold demand in India improved slightly as domestic prices eased from recent record highs, while demand was weak in other Asian centres with some dealers offering discounts in top bullion consumer China to attract buyers. Indian dealers were offering a discount of up to $11 an ounce over official domestic prices down from last week's discount of $23. Indian gold demand in the March-quarter fell 17% to the lowest level in 10 quarters and is likely to remain subdued even during June and September quarters on record-high prices, the World Gold Council said. Several Fed policymakers signalled they see interest rates staying high, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin saying he is not convinced inflation is on a steady decline back to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.86% to settle at 11443 while prices are down -99 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59921 and below same could see a test of 59698 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60406, a move above could see prices testing 60668.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59698-60668.
* Gold edged down following the release of the U.S. April housing data
* U.S. housing starts rose 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.401 million units last month
* US building permits, were down 1.5% at 1.416 million units in April

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 72658 amid the risk of a U.S. debt default, and as traders trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut any time soon following solid U.S. consumer spending data. U.S. President Joe Biden and the senior congressman, Republican Kevin McCarthy, have edged closer to a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, but nothing is clinched yet. Biden said any default would land the economy in recession, but investors also fear the impact globally would be negative. Expectations for near-term U.S. interest rate cuts were dampened by a solid increase in April consumer spending, and by comments from Fed officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said it was "far too premature to be talking about rate cuts", and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said rates were not yet at a point where the central bank could hold steady, given stubborn inflation. Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago. Euro zone inflation accelerated last month, Eurostat said, confirming preliminary data pointing to increasingly stubborn price growth among the 20 nations sharing the euro. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.13% to settle at 15053 while prices are up 73 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72232 and below same could see a test of 71807 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72998, a move above could see prices testing 73339.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71807-73339.
* Silver settled flat amid the risk of a U.S. debt default
* Traders trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut any time soon following solid U.S. consumer spending data
* US Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.09% at 6014 driven by investor expectations of an oil market deficit in the second half of the year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a projection, stating that demand is expected to exceed supply by 2 million barrels per day in that period, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the anticipated oil demand growth. However, the surprise increase in US crude inventories has introduced concerns about higher supply levels and their potential impact on oil demand, especially considering the prevailing economic uncertainties in the US and China. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose unexpectedly while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 5 million barrels in the last week to 467.6 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 900,000 barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.5 million barrels in the week to May 12, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to 218.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, rose by 0.1 million barrels in the week to 106.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 100,000 barrel rise, the EIA data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -38.16% to settle at 6335 while prices are up 180 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5847 and below same could see a test of 5679 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6110, a move above could see prices testing 6205.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5679-6205.
* Crude oil gains driven by investor expectations of an oil market deficit
* Demand is expected to exceed supply by 2 million barrels per day in that period – IEA
* The surprise increase in US crude inventories has introduced concerns about higher supply levels and their potential impact on oil demand.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 198.3 due to warmer weather that has reduced demand while supply has remained plentiful. The recent report from Baker Hughes showed that the gas rig count fell by 16 to 141 last week, the lowest since April 2022, and the biggest weekly decline since February 2016. Still, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states held steady at a record of 101.4 bcfd so far in May. The weather in the US Lower 48 states is projected to switch from warmer-than-normal levels to near-normal from May 18-27, and US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall from 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 89.0 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, in Europe gas fell to a fresh near two-year low amid tepid demand and strong supply, but lower wind speeds supported day-ahead prices. Meteorologists projected the weather in the U.S. Lower 48 states would switch from warmer-than-normal levels from May 12-17 to near-normal from May 18-27. Refinitiv forecasts that U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 89.0 bcfd next week. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.57% to settle at 26859 while prices are up 1.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 193.3 and below same could see a test of 188.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.1, a move above could see prices testing 205.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 188.2-205.8.
* Natural gas dropped due to warmer weather that has reduced demand while supply has remained plentiful.
* In Europe gas fell to a fresh near two-year low amid tepid demand and strong supply
* The gas rig count fell by 16 to 141 last week, the lowest since April 2022

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.08% at 723.2 with bargain-buying supporting the prices, after the market dropped to its lowest since late-November on concerns over demand in China. China's April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts, the latest in a run of weak figures, with property investment and sales weakening and the metals-intensive manufacturing sector shrinking in April. A union of supervisors at Antofagasta's Centinela copper in Chile are "very far" from an agreement with the company to avoid a strike, the union's president told. Last week, 97% of union members voted for a strike after rejecting the company's last formal proposal, but began five days of mediation with the government. China's new home prices rose for the fourth straight month in April but at a slower pace, official data showed on Wednesday, as government efforts to stabilise the sector lifted sentiment after the country's abrupt exit from COVID curbs late last year. The global copper market is expected to see a deficit this year, steered by improved Chinese demand, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. The ICSG forecast a deficit of about 114,000 tonnes for 2023 compared with a surplus of about 155,000 tonnes expected last October, mainly due to better expectations for Chinese usage. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.21% to settle at 4141 while prices are up 7.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 713.9 and below same could see a test of 704.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 728.9, a move above could see prices testing 734.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 704.6-734.6.
* Copper edged higher with bargain-buying supporting the prices
* Centinela copper mine's union head says sides far apart in talks to avoid strike
* China's April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 227.05 as the global refined zinc market will be in supply shortfall this year but it's slashed its deficit forecast to a modest 45,000 tonnes from 150,000 tonnes at the time of its last statistical update in October. Global demand fell by 3.9% in 2022, led by an estimated 4.9% fall in China, the world's largest user of zinc, according to ILZSG's April forecasts. China’s demand is expected to recover by 2.1% this year, matching that in the rest of the world, ILZSG said. Refined zinc production also fell last year to the tune of 3.8% but it will bounce back by a robust 3.1% this year, an upward revision from the 2.6% growth rate anticipated back in October. ILZSG expects China's refined production to rise by "a significant 4% this year" as the country's smelters capitalise on high treatment and refining charges. Europe was the weakest link in the supply chain last year with several smelters fully curtailing operations and others reducing run-rates in the face of record high power prices. LME registered inventory is up by 18,575 tonnes since the start of January but at 49,050 tonnes is still equivalent to less than two days' worth of global consumption. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.54% to settle at 3562 while prices are up 1.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 224.9 and below same could see a test of 222.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228.7, a move above could see prices testing 230.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.8-230.4.
* Zinc gains as the global refined zinc market will be in supply shortfall
* China’s demand is expected to recover by 2.1% this year, matching that in the rest of the world, ILZSG said.
* Refined zinc production also fell last year to the tune of 3.8% but it will bounce back by a robust 3.1% this year

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 208.3 as China's aluminium output in April fell 1.2% from March, as power curbs in the southwest limited production of the metal. China produced 3.33 million tonnes of aluminium last month, down from 3.37 million tonnes in March, though that was up 0.8% compared with a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Output growth is being capped by ongoing issues in Yunnan province, China's fourth biggest aluminium-producing province, with about 12% of the country's total capacity. Yunnan relies heavily on hydropower for power generation but has asked aluminium producers to cut production since last September amid low rainfall and water levels. Capacity of 255,000 tonnes per annum also resumed last month, mostly in the southwestern Guangxi and Guizhou regions, according to a survey by information provider Mysteel. For the first four months of the year, China produced 13.3 million tonnes of aluminium, up 3.9% from the corresponding period in 2022, the data also showed. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 3.3% to 358,400 tonnes at the end of April from 370,700 tonnes at the end of March, Marubeni Corp said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.48% to settle at 3020 while prices are up 1.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.8 and below same could see a test of 205.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.1, a move above could see prices testing 209.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.3-209.9.
* Aluminium gains as China April aluminium output down 1.2% on prior month on power curbs
* Yunnan relies heavily on hydropower for power generation but has asked aluminium producers to cut production
* Japan aluminium stocks down 3.3% m/m in April

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 951.7 on better sowing conditions in UP and Bihar. The recent period of rain in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has been beneficial to planting efforts. The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.3 Rupees to end at 1127 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.25% to settle at 560 while prices are down -1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 948.1 and below same could see a test of 944.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 954.3, a move above could see prices testing 957.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 944.6-957.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.3 Rupees to end at 1127 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled flat on better sowing conditions
* The forecast of above-average rainfall in May would be beneficial to Mentha seeding efforts.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 8492 on profit booking after prices rose as there were report of some fall in crop yields in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra due to rain in the last week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7669.75 Rupees gained 210.3 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 15950 while prices are down -40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8364 and below same could see a test of 8238 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8658, a move above could see prices testing 8826.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8238-8826.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices rose on report of fall in yields
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7669.75 Rupees gained 210.3 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.51% at 46610 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 650.15 Rupees to end at 47058.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.57% to settle at 9531 while prices are up 695 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 45650 and below same could see a test of 44695 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47430, a move above could see prices testing 48255.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 44695-48255.
* Jeera prices rose due to good export demand.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 650.15 Rupees to end at 47058.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

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