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Published on 17/09/2020 11:18:51 AM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Gold trading range for the day is 51523-52277 By Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 51824 helped by a subdued dollar as investors bet on dovish monetary cues from the U.S Federal Reserve when it announces its policy decision. Market participants now await the U.S. Fed’s two-day policy event which ends on Wednesday, its first such meeting since Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled a policy shift towards greater tolerance of inflation, effectively pledging to keep interest rates low for longer. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on coronavirus relief, the committee said. Market participants are also waiting for the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England's policy decisions due on Thursday. Meanwhile, the European Union ramped up pressure on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to step back from breaking the Brexit divorce treaty. Gold will continue to move higher on political uncertainties in the United States, on Brexit and overall the weak economic conditions in the world. Large precious metals speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets again, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Gold speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week following a streak of three weekly declines previously. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.44% to settled at 10009 while prices up 55 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51673 and below same could see a test of 51523 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52050, a move above could see prices testing 52277.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51523-52277.
* Gold prices rose as investors bet on dovish monetary cues from the U.S Federal Reserve when it announces its policy decision
* U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on coronavirus relief
* Market participants are also waiting for the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England's policy decisions due on Thursday.

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 68781 as dollar's recovery ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement weighed. Retail sales in the U.S. continued to increase in the month of August, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The pace of growth, however, fell well short of economist estimates. The report said retail sales rose by 0.6% in August after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.9% in July. A report released by the National Association of Home Builders showed homebuilder confidence jumped to a record high in September. The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index shot up to 83 in September from 78 in August. Meanwhile, a report released by the Commerce Department showed business inventories in the U.S. inched up by 0.1% in July after slumping by 1.1% in June. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will be announcing their monetary policies on Thursday. It is widely expected that the central banks will continue to hold interest rates low for a prolonged period in order to boost growth. Limiting advance, investors' appetite for riskier assets increased as hopes for a potential COVID-19 vaccine resurfaced after AstraZeneca resumed its phase-3 trial. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.99% to settled at 16757 while prices down -186 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68505 and below same could see a test of 68228 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69154, a move above could see prices testing 69526.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68228-69526.
* Silver prices dropped as dollar's recovery ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement weighed.
* Retail sales in the U.S. continued to increase in the month of August, according to a report
* A report by Commerce Department showed business inventories in the U.S. inched up by 0.1% in July after slumping by 1.1% in June.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.96% at 2940 as a hurricane disrupted U.S. offshore oil and gas production and an industry report showed a big drop in U.S. crude stockpiles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its 2020 oil demand forecast, citing caution about the pace of economic recovery from the pandemic. The Paris-based IEA cut its 2020 outlook by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 91.7 million bpd in its second downgrade in as many months. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline by about 68,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October to 7.64 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly productivity report. That would be the first decline in production since May, according to revised data from the agency. China's crude oil throughput in August rose from a year ago, reaching the second-highest on record, as refineries worked to digest record imports brought in earlier this year. The country processed 59.47 million tonnes of crude oil in August, or 14 million barrels per day (bpd), up 9.2% from a year earlier. OPEC and allies such as Russia are unlikely to announce further curbs to oil output despite a price drop, and will extend the period for countries like Iraq and Nigeria to compensate for earlier overproduction. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.95% to settled at 2172 while prices up 112 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 2871 and below same could see a test of 2801 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2985, a move above could see prices testing 3029.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 2801-3029.
* Crude oil prices rose, as a hurricane disrupted U.S. offshore oil and gas production and an industry report showed a big drop in U.S. crude stockpiles.
* IEA says oil demand recovery set to slow for rest of 2020
* U.S. shale oil output to drop 68,000 bpd to 7.64 mln bpd in Oct- EIA

 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.3% at 167 on forecasts for milder weather and lower cooling demand over the next two weeks. The price decline came despite a continued rise in liquefied natural gas exports and a drop in output to its lowest in two years as producers shut wells for Hurricane Sally. Sally, now a tropical storm, knocked out power to around 570,000 homes and businesses in Alabama and Florida after smashing into the Alabama coast early Wednesday. The storm is expected to stay far from LNG export plants as it moves toward Georgia and South Carolina. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 84.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), its lowest since August 2018, due to Sally-related shutdowns. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said 0.8 bcfd, or 30%, of Gulf of Mexico gas production was shut-in. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would fall from 85.2 bcfd this week to 81.8 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 5.3 bcfd so far in September. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 39.58% to settled at 14527 while prices down -7.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 163.4 and below same could see a test of 159.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 173.2, a move above could see prices testing 179.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 159.9-179.5.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather and lower cooling demand over the next two weeks.
* Price decline came despite a continued rise in LNG exports and a drop in output to its lowest in two years as producers shut wells for Hurricane Sally.
* Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 84.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), its lowest since August 2018

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 529.25 on expectations of strong demand from top consumer China. China's industrial output accelerated the most in eight months in August and retail sales grew, suggesting the economic recovery is gathering pace. U.S. factory production increased for a fourth straight month in August, but the recovery is showing signs of strain, suggesting business investment in equipment could remain depressed through the end of the year as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on. A Chinese official said coronavirus vaccines being developed in China may be ready for use by the general public as early as November, boosting confidence in the economic rebound. On warrant copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose to a three-week high of 45,950 tonnes but have fallen from around 250,000 tonnes in May. In a sign of tight nearby supply, cash copper on the LME traded at an $18.50 premium to three-month metal. China’s copper cathode output rose sharply in August as almost no maintenance has been heard in the month and copper scrap supply was sufficient. Survey showed that China produced 810,500 mt of copper cathode in August, up 8.14% from July and 5.58% from a year earlier. For the first eight months of 2020, China’s copper cathode output totalled 5.99 million mt, up 3.39% from the same period last year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.4% to settled at 3763 while prices down -0.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 527.2 and below same could see a test of 525.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 530.8, a move above could see prices testing 532.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 525.1-532.3.
* Copper prices steadied on expectations of strong demand from top consumer China.
* China's industrial output accelerated the most in eight months in August and retail sales grew, suggesting the economic recovery is gathering pace.
* On warrant copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose to a three-week high of 45,950 tonnes



Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 195.35 driven by upbeat Chinese and U.S. economic data, but the dollar, held steady as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's view on the economy at its policy meeting. Retail sales in China rose 0.5% in August from a year ago — the first positive report for the year so far — according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. Still, retail sales for the first eight months of the year were down 8.6% from a year ago, the bureau said. Chinese industrial production grew 5.6% in August from a year ago while fixed-asset investment declined 0.3% for the first eight months of the year. China's August refined zinc output rose 2.8% to 450,000 tonnes from last year, hitting a record monthly high in nearly five years as smelters boosted production. Zinc output from 49 Chinese producers increased by 19,000 tonnes last month compared with the revised July data, sending production for the January-August period to 3.37 million tonnes, up 2.1% from same period in 2019. September zinc output to rise to above 470,000 tonnes and overall industry to be more stable. China’s refined zinc output stood at 509,100 mt in August, rising 16,300 or up 3.3% on month and up 1.98% on year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.52% to settled at 2326 while prices up 1.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 194.3 and below same could see a test of 193.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.2, a move above could see prices testing 196.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 193.1-196.9.
* Zinc gained driven by upbeat Chinese and U.S. economic data, but the dollar, held steady as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's view on the economy
* Chinese industrial production grew 5.6% in August from a year ago
* China's August refined zinc output rose 2.8% to 450,000 tonnes from last year, hitting a record monthly high in nearly five years as smelters boosted production.



Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 1115.8 on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain its downbeat stance on the US economy as it grapples with the pandemic. Germany’s ZEW survey of economic conditions, showed that sentiment in Europe’s largest economy significantly exceeded expectations in September. Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 77.4 in September, up from 71.5, beat expectation of 70.0. Current Situation rose 15.1 pts to -66.2. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose 9.9 pts to 73.9, Current Situation rose 8.9 pts to -80.9. Retail sales in China rose 0.5% in August from a year ago — the first positive report for the year so far — according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. Still, retail sales for the first eight months of the year were down 8.6% from a year ago, the bureau said. Chinese industrial production grew 5.6% in August from a year ago while fixed-asset investment declined 0.3% for the first eight months of the year. Industrial Production in the United States expanded by 0.4% on a monthly basis in August, the US Federal Reserve reported. China’s refined nickel output declined 2.25% or 330 mt from July, but rose 12.94% from a year earlier, to 14,300 mt in August. Output at Gansu smelters shrank 3.85% on the month, while that at Lianning and Shandong smelters was little changed as they kept normal production. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.25% to settled at 1266 while prices down -3.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1111.3 and below same could see a test of 1106.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1121, a move above could see prices testing 1126.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1106.9-1126.3.
* Nickel dropped on expectations the Fed will maintain its downbeat stance on the US economy as it grapples with the pandemic.
* Industrial Production in the United States expanded by 0.4% on a monthly basis in August, the US Federal Reserve reported.
* Retail sales in China rose 0.5% in August from a year ago — the first positive report for the year so far



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 144.95 as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's view on the economy at the end of its policy meeting, although upbeat Chinese and U.S. economic data is likely to give sentiment a tailwind. China's aluminium production in August rose 2.3% from a month earlier, setting a record high for a second month. China's aluminium production in August rose 2.3% from a month earlier, setting a record high for a second month, fuelled by increasing output at smelters and robust demand outlook. The world's top aluminium producer churned out 3.17 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. That was up from 3.1 million tonnes July and an increase of 5.5% from August 2019. Imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 131,000 mt in June, rising 88.3% from May and surging 754.5% from a year earlier, and totalled 466,500 mt in the first half of 2020, soaring 706.1% from the same period last year, according to the latest customs data. Orders for imported aluminium alloy rose sharply from late April as its demand surged, and almost all these cargoes arrived in June. However, imports are expected to fall below 100,000 mt in July as orders decreased in June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.12% to settled at 561 while prices down -0.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 144.6 and below same could see a test of 144.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 145.8, a move above could see prices testing 146.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 144.1-146.5.
* Aluminium dropped as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's view on the economy at the end of its policy meeting
* China's aluminium production in August rose 2.3% from a month earlier, setting a record high for a second month.
* China August aluminium output hits new high on decent prices, firm demand



Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 965.5 on short covering after prices dropped amid due to low demand and expectation of a rise in acreage this season. There were expectations of higher area under cultivation for crop year 2020-21. After a week's delay due to heavy rainfall, oil from new mentha crop has started arriving at the key wholesale market of Barabanki in Uttar Pradesh, traders said. So far, arrivals of the spice oil are at 5-10 drums. New mint crop is being harvested in Bareilly, Sitapur and Konch districts. Demand is there for new mentha crop but it will take some time for bulk arrivals to hit markets. New arrivals are likely to pick up during the first week of June. In the first week of June, arrivals are likely to touch 100 drums per day. During the peak arrival season after mid-June, 400-500 drums will collectively arrive daily in the markets of Chandausi, Sambhal and Barabanki in Uttar Pradesh. Prices of the spice oil are also likely to remain on the downside as production is seen at a record high of 55,000-60,000 tn this year, up nearly 50%. The yield of mentha is expected to be high this time too, due to this, traders are not taking fresh positions in mentha. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.79% to settled at 137 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 956.3 and below same could see a test of 949.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 966.8, a move above could see prices testing 970.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 921.8-991.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.8 Rupees to end at 1090.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped amid due to low demand and expectation of a rise in acreage this season.
* There were expectations of higher area under cultivation for crop year 2020-21.
* The yield of mentha is expected to be high this time too, due to this, traders are not taking fresh positions in mentha.



Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 3921 as new soybean arrivals have started, in Madhya Pradesh. The total arrival of soybeans in Madhya Pradesh has been 80,000 bags, including 15,000 bags of new soybeans. With the harvesting of new crops in Madhya Pradesh, new soybean arrivals in the mandis are expected to increase in the coming days. Even as the Soybean Processors Association of India is yet to come with the exact estimate of damage to the soybean crops on account of heavy rains and pest infection following its second round of field survey in the soybean growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, the new soybean has started hitting mandis across Madhya Pradesh. US Agriculture Department's monthly report to reduce US soybean production and final stock in 2020-2021. China’s agriculture ministry said it expects soybean imports to rise in the second half, including from America as the phase-one deal is implemented. India's soybean production could jump by 32% in 2020 to 12.25 million tonnes from a year earlier due to higher area under the oilseed and as the yields are expected to rise on ample monsoon rainfall. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.87% to settled at 42855 while prices down -21 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3896 and below same could see a test of 3839 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4002, a move above could see prices testing 4051.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3868-3968.
* Soyabean prices dropped as new soybean arrivals have started, in Madhya Pradesh.
* With the harvesting of new crops in Madhya Pradesh, new soybean arrivals in the mandis are expected to increase in the coming days.
* US Agriculture Department's monthly report to reduce US soybean production and final stock in 2020-2021.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -21 Rupees to 3926 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.1% at 937.9 as support seen India sees sharp rise in edible oil exports at 80,765 tonnes for 2019-20, due to the refilling of depleted stocks. India's imports of edible oil in June were up 8% year on year, due to the refilling of depleted stocks. In a major boost for India’s oilseed sector, the country has recorded a sharp jump — nearly 54 per cent — in edible oil exports to 80,765 tonnes for 2019-20, according to government data. India had exported 52,490 tonnes of edible oils in 2018-19. The country earned Rs. 955.51 crore during 2019-20 from the exports, which is more than Rs. 320 crore higher from Rs. 627 crore recorded in the previous year. The rise in bulk exports is seen as a big boost to oilseed growers as it brightens the prospects for better remuneration for their oilseed crops. Edible oils are freely exportable in bulk, while mustard oil is allowed in consumer packs not exceeding 5 kg. A SOPA official opined that “The government should impose restrictions on edible oil imports so as to balance the need-based supply. We need to incentivize export of the oil meals so that the industry retains viability and contributes to forex earnings. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.6% to settled at 33335 while prices up 2.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 914 and below same could see a test of 909 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 924, a move above could see prices testing 929.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 906-956.
* Refsoyoil prices gained as support seen India sees sharp rise in edible oil exports
* India's imports of edible oil in June were up 8% year on year, due to the refilling of depleted stocks.
* A SOPA official opined that “The government should impose restrictions on edible oil imports so as to balance the need-based supply.”
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 907.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.



Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.33% at 794.8 supported by raised expectations of higher exports in the month so far. Exports from Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, in Sept. 1-15 is expected to rise between 10% and 12%. Palm oil imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season totalled 1.29 million tonnes by Sept. 13, up 4.9% from the previous season, official EU data showed. The Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association estimated output in some parts of Malaysia during Sept. 1-10 rose 7.8% from a month earlier, slower than its 14.2% growth estimate for Sept. 1-5 production. India's palm oil imports in August dropped 13.9% from a year earlier to 734,351 tonnes, due to a sluggish recovery in demand from hotels and restaurants as local coronavirus cases continued to rise. Lower imports of palm oil and soyoil pushed India's total edible oil imports in August down 14% year-on-year to 1.37 million tonnes, the SEA said. In the first 10 months of the 2019-20 marketing year that started in November, India's edible oil imports fell 13% to 11.2 million tonnes, the SEA said. India imposed restrictions on imports of refined palm oil and palmolein in January and later suspended 39 licences to import refined palm from neighbouring countries such as Nepal and Bangladesh. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.16% to settled at 3697 while prices down -6.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 772.3 and below same could see a test of 767.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 784.6, a move above could see prices testing 792.4.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 767.8-810.4.
* Crude palm oil prices remained supported by raised expectations of higher exports in the month so far.
* Exports from Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, in Sept. 1-15 is expected to rise between 10% and 12%.
* India's palm oil imports in August dropped 13.9% from a year earlier to 734,351 tonnes, due to a sluggish recovery in demand
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 4.1 Rupees to end at 785.9 Rupees.



Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 5321 on profit booking after prices gained as support seen due to low crop estimates, festival and seasonal demand and increased prices by Nafed are strong factors. It is estimated that the mustard oil consumption in the domestic market has increased by 12% to 15% this year as mustard oil is considered as immunity booster in the fight against corona infection. However, the remaining available supply of mustard in the market is not sufficient to comfortably fulfil demand of mustard until the arrival of new crop. All major mandis for RM Seed are functioning on normal course however, some mandis like Kota and Bikaner have reduced their operational capacity as some Corona positive cases were detected. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to increase marginally by around 2% to 698 Lakh tonnes during 2020-21 against 682 Lakh tonnes seen during 2019-20. However, beginning stock is expected to fall by around 28% to 65 Lakh tonnes. Hence, the total supply is projected to marginally fell by around 1% to 914 Lakh tonnes. Ending Stock too expected to fell by 8% to 60 Lakh tonnes as compared to 65 Lakh tonnes last year. NAFED has plan to procure RM seed around 18 Lakh tonnes under PSS scheme across the states. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.14% to settled at 32040 while prices down -34 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5305 and below same could see a test of 5263 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5400, a move above could see prices testing 5453.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5265-5365.
* Mustard dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to low crop estimates, and increased prices by Nafed are strong factors
* It is estimated that the mustard oil consumption in the domestic market has increased by 12% to 15% this year
* As per USDA, World Mustard seed beginning stock is expected to fall by around 28% to 65 Lakh tonnes.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 34.1 Rupees to end at 5475 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 5894 as supply improved in the spot markets as a result of increased mandi arrivals. Pressure also seen amid reports of higher carry forwards stocks from last year due to higher production. Production for the marketing year 2020-21 is expected to be around 5.20 lakh tonnes on the preliminary basis as against last year’s production of 5.35 lakh tonnes. Turmeric prices trading lower owing to decline in demand from exporters and bulk buyers such as spice manufacturers amid the ongoing lockdown. However, there is good demand from domestic market anticipating high demand in the coming months due to Turmeric’s increasing awareness as immunity booster. On export front, Turmeric exports are likely to remain lower compared to previous year as demand from export destinations such as the US and West Asia is likely to fall due to outbreak of Corona virus. On export front, India exported 1.10 lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (April- January) a decrease of around 4% from the same period of last year. India exported around 0.09 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in January 2020 which is 15% higher than 0.08 lakh tonnes shipped in January 2019. However, in January 2020, Turmeric exports reported at 0.09 lakh tonnes, 39% lower than 0.15 lakh tonnes recorded in the previous month Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.57% to settled at 10425 while prices up 32 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5898 and below same could see a test of 5860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5958, a move above could see prices testing 5980.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5792-5996.
* Turmeric prices dropped as supply improved in the spot markets as a result of increased mandi arrivals.
* Pressure also seen amid reports of higher carry forwards stocks from last year due to higher production.
* Production for the marketing year 2020-21 is expected to be around 5.20 lakh tonnes on the preliminary basis.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5610 Rupees gained 5 Rupees.



Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 14090 on update production of jeera may rise 29% to 535,500 tn in the 2019-20. Jeera exports are likely to have slumped over 59% on year to 20,000 tn in Jan-Mar as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand in key markets such as China. India was at an advantage in terms of exports due to lower production in Syria and Turkey–its main competitors. During Apr-Dec, exports had grown 27% to 167,000 tn, data from the Spices Board India showed. Syria and Turkey are yet to come in the market and there was great opportunity for India to export during the new crop season as the sole supplier but that is also gone. Both Syria and Turkey's output is likely to double in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun). Despite a peak demand period, the operations of spices industry in many upcountry markets have been hit in the wake of a labour shortage. Though the industry has to work in full swing prior to the onset of monsoon, their presence in the red zone area coupled with the departure of labour has affected the functioning of many spices industries especially in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.68% to settled at 2043 while prices up 150 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14040 and below same could see a test of 13935 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14210, a move above could see prices testing 14275.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13965-14195.
* Jeera prices dropped on update production of jeera may rise 29% to 535,500 tn
* Jeera exports are likely to have slumped over 59% on year to 20,000 tn in Jan-Mar.
* Despite a peak demand period, the operations of spices industry in many upcountry markets have been hit in the wake of a labour shortage.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -61.65 Rupees to end at 13833.35 Rupees per 100 kg.



Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 18030 as cotton harvesting may get delayed and crop may get damaged as all India rains likely to be above normal. With the improvement of weather conditions, daily arrival of new cotton is increasing in India including Haryana. Following waterlogged conditions across districts of Hissar, Fatehabad, Jind and Bhiwani districts, nearly 50000 acres have been adversely affected in Haryana. Cotton crop on nearly 50,000 acres in the state is destroyed due to waterlogging after the recent rains. Official reports and assessments from farmers indicate that cotton, grown over nearly 10,000 acres has been destroyed completely. Apart from damage due to August rains, cotton growers are also worried from the Whitefly attacks on cotton crop. The state of Haryana received good rains in the beginning of August, especially in villages of Hisar’s Barwala, Fatehabad’s Bhuna and Bhiwani’s Tosham and Siwani blocks. Rains as well as prevailing hot and humid weather conditions has resulted in pest infestation in recent weeks. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.28% to settled at 720 while prices up 60 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 17910 and below same could see a test of 17830 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 18060, a move above could see prices testing 18130.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 17880-18140.
* Cotton prices gains as cotton harvesting may get delayed and crop may get damaged as all India rains likely to be above normal.
* Cotton crop on nearly 50,000 acres in the state is destroyed due to waterlogging after the recent rains.
* Apart from damage due to August rains, cotton growers are also worried from the Whitefly attacks on cotton crop.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -20 Rupees to end at 17280 Rupees.


Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 5129 due to lack of stock and increasing demand for pulses and gram flour in the festive season, the price of gram has risen strongly. The traders have cast doubt on the official estimate of the production of gram in the last Rabi season. In the third advance production estimate for the crop year 2019-20 (July-June) released in the month of May by the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, 109 million tonnes of gram production was estimated in the country. In addition, the consumption of gram has increased due to the inclusion of gram in the free grain distribution scheme started in the Corona period. The demand for gram flour in gram flour increased due to the cost of peas, and to meet the demand of pulses and gram flour in the festive season, the purchase of mills in gram is going fast. With the economy coming out of lockdown, consumption is likely to increase and prices are also rising due to festive season demand. Arrival of dollar chana in mandis across Madhya Pradesh today was recorded at 7,000 bags against 1,500 bags in Indore mandis. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.2% to settled at 62640 while prices down -42 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5057 and below same could see a test of 5026 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5132, a move above could see prices testing 5176.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4984-5222.
* Chana prices rallied due to lack of stock and increasing demand for pulses and gram flour
* The rise in prices is a major reason for the reduction in production estimates.
* The consumption of gram has increased due to the inclusion of gram in the free grain distribution scheme started in the Corona period
* In Delhi spot market, chana remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 5000 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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