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Published on 23/01/2020 11:22:29 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Crude oil trading range for the day is 3943-4223 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

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Gold 

Gold on MCX settled at 39913 edged lower as investors looked for riskier assets amid slightly fading concerns about the coronavirus outbreak after the Chinese government said it is stepping up preventive measures. Gold prices traded sideways and continued to hover in a relatively tight range of 40100 - 39700. Gold prices were buoyed by a higher US dollar and lower US yields, while prices are likely to continue to consolidate. Focus so far this week is on the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. President Trump, in an interview with CNBC, said U.S. economic growth has been hamstrung by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates too high, and by the grounded Boeing jetliner situation. Trump also threatened new trade tariffs on European countries that manufacture automobiles. While from domestic side traders and Jewellers are caution for Gold prices as heavy speculation are prevailing in the market about duty cut, Jewellers are expecting a reduction in import duty of gold and a cut in income tax for the common people in the upcoming Budget to spur demand. At present gold attracts an import duty of 12.5% and a GST of 3%. The government had set up the Domestic Gold Council to upgrade the growth of the sector and boost exports of jewellery which is still awaiting while there are several important issues that need to be addressed. Now technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.45% to settled at 9903 while prices up 2 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 39786 and below same could see a test of 39658 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40008, a move above could see prices testing 40102.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 39658-40102.

* Gold settled flat as investors looked for riskier assets amid slightly fading concerns

* Investors are undecided about coronavirus, with early indications that it could hurt bullion demand in China  

* Jewellers want cut in import duty of gold and in income tax in Budget 2020


Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.2% at 46233 recovered from the sharp fall seen on Tuesday, the sharpest one-day drop since December 6. With a lack of U.S. fundamental releases until Thursday, any moves on Wednesday will be subject to technical factors, barring any major geopolitical developments. The U.S. economy continues to perform well, with the exception of the manufacturing sector, which has been dampened by the trade war with China as well as a weak global economy.  With inflation levels below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%, there is little pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. That could help explain why silver and gold prices remain relatively high, despite a strong economy and a thriving stock market. As long as interest rates are likely to remain steady or even get trimmed, precious metals should remain attractive to investors. Investors looked for riskier assets amid slightly fading concerns about the coronavirus outbreak after the Chinese government said it is stepping up preventive measures. The dollar index rebounded after early weakness, but largely seen struggling to move up any significantly higher. After edging down to 97.44 earlier in the day, the index climbed to 97.69 before paring some gains. It was last seen at 97.58, up marginally from previous close. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.59% to settled at 9829 while prices up 90 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 45976 and below same could see a test of 45719 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46467, a move above could see prices testing 46701.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 45719-46701.

* Silver recovered from the sharp fall seen on Tuesday, the sharpest one-day drop since December 6. 

* The markets are so far paying very little attention to the impeachment of President Trump. 

* IMF lowered the 2020 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.4% previous. 


Crude oil

Crude oil on MCX settled down -3.3% at 4048 declined sharply on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns about outlook for energy demand and on the International Energy Agency's report that forecasts a jump in global oil supply. Reports about supply disruptions in Libya failed to support crude oil prices. A recent report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that despite a slow pace of rise, U.S. crude production will likely increase to record highs next month. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said a surplus of one million barrels per day of oil will keep a lid on oil prices in the first half of 2020. "I see an abundance of energy supply in terms of oil and gas," the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Tuesday, while attending the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos. Meanwhile, financial markets have been destabilised globally with the rise of a new strain of coronavirus in China. Goldman Sachs said that if the virus develops to SARS-like proportions, it could impact travel and growth. This could lead to a fall of 260,000bpd in oil demand. It added: “Demand concerns over a potential epidemic will counter concerns around supply disruptions in Libya, Iran and Iraq, driving spot price volatility in coming weeks. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 38.66% to settled at 19643 while prices down -138 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3995 and below same could see a test of 3943 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4135, a move above could see prices testing 4223.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3943-4223.

* Crude dropped as pressure appears to be reflective of growing concerns over the Wuhan virus outbreak

* Goldman said it anticipated the coronavirus could cause global oil demand to fall.

* US shale production would increase by 22Mbbls/d over February to 9.2MMbbls/d


Natural gas

Natural gas on MCX settled up 1.04% at 135.90, prices recovered from the day’s low of 134.90 dropped sharply tracking US natural gas prices which had hit the lowest point since 2016, falling to less than $2 per MMBtu after EIA forecasts natural gas consumption to decrease slightly in the residential and commercial sectors as a result of expected milder weather that will require less energy for space heating in the winter and air conditioning in the summer. Based on forecasts by the NOAA, EIA forecasts 1.8% fewer heating degree days (HDD) in 2020 compared with 2019, which had a colder-than-normal first quarter,” EIA said in its report. In 2020 natural gas prices are expected to be around $2.33/MMBtu, 24 cents lower than the 2019 price of $2.57/MMBtu, and the EIA expects a price rise in 2021 due to the decline in natural gas production. The decrease will be more visible in the residential and commercial sectors due to the unusually mild weather, said EIA. Meanwhile, looking ahead to this week’s EIA storage report, Energy Aspects issued a preliminary estimate for a 97 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 17. The firm estimated a 0.2 Bcf/d week/week drop-off in LNG feed gas demand because of “dense fog” delaying loadings at all four Gulf Coast LNG terminals during the report period. On the supply side, the firm estimated a 0.7 Bcf/d week/week drop in production. Technically the market is getting support at 134.4 and below same could see a test of 132.9 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 137.9, a move above could see prices testing 139.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 132.9-139.9.

* Natural gas prices gained yesterday on short covering recovered from the lowest point since 2016

* Prices declined to their lowest level since 2016 because of robust production

* The trend in the natural gas market remains bearish as the 2020 injection season is now on the horizon.  


Copper

Copper on MCX settled down at 452.35 as the rising death toll from the Wuhan virus outbreak deepened concerns over potential damage to economic growth and metals demand. Chinese authorities said the virus had claimed a total of nine lives with 440 confirmed cases and stepped up efforts to control the outbreak. Also, rising copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses continued to weigh on prices. Headline stocks rose 20% to 195,375 tonnes, their highest since Dec. 4. While downside was restricted as support seen after Antofagasta reported a 5.8% drop in fourth-quarter copper production, citing civil unrest in Chile, though it still registered record annual output. Support also seen as funds have been holding a net long position on the CME copper contract since the beginning of this year. The last time they were collectively this bullish was back in April 2019. Macro negativity then turned the money men collectively short of copper, the bearishness reaching extreme levels in August and September. That started changing during December as the prospect of a trade deal loomed. Funds turned net long of copper around the middle of the month and have stayed so since then, last week to the tune of 6,906 contracts. Now technically the market is getting support at 450.8 and below same could see a test of 449.1 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 454.2, a move above could see prices testing 455.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 449.1-455.9.

* Copper drop as virus outbreak deepened concerns over potential damage to economic growth.

* Rising copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses continued to weigh on prices.

* Antofagasta reported a drop in Q4 copper production, citing civil unrest in Chile.


Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -1.71% at 181.10  on fresh selling tracking weakness from LME Zinc prices which shed 2.3% to settle at $2,396 as the rising death toll from the Wuhan virus outbreak deepened concerns over potential damage to economic growth and metals demand. Chinese authorities on Wednesday said the virus had claimed a total of nine lives with 440 confirmed cases and stepped up efforts to control the outbreak. Meanwhile the premium of LME cash zinc to the three-month contract increased to $23.75 a tonne, its highest since Nov. 29, indicating tighter availability of LME supplies as physical demand for zinc is better than normal for the pre-Chinese New Year season. The US dollar on Wednesday fell against a basket its rivals, easing off one-month highs, as the Chinese government’s plans to contain the virus seemed to ease equity investors’ concerns over a possible pandemic. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump said that the European Union has “no choice” but to agree to a new trade deal. In a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Davos on Tuesday, Trump again threatened to levy tariffs on European car imports in the absence of renewed trade commitments from the bloc. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.18% to settled at 10285 while prices down -3.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 179.7 and below same could see a test of 178.3 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 183.4, a move above could see prices testing 185.7.
Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 178.3-185.7.

* Zinc dropped on fresh selling tracking weakness from LME Zinc prices which shed 2.3%.

* Pressure seen as Wuhan virus outbreak deepened concerns over potential damage to economic growth.

* Trump said the European Union has “no choice” but to agree to a new trade deal.


Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled unchanged at 1015.50 as traders are cautious with mix fundamentals, one side we have seen as the rising death toll from the Wuhan virus outbreak deepened concerns over potential damage to economic growth and metals demand. Chinese authorities on Wednesday said the virus had claimed a total of nine lives with 440 confirmed cases and stepped up efforts to control the outbreak. On the other side China imported 199,800 mt of ferronickel (FeNi), including nickel pig iron (NPI), in December, according to pre-declaration data from China customs. This was down 12.76% from a month ago, but up 34.34% from a year ago. Market estimates that December’s ferronickel imports contain 35,400 mt of nickel, up 2.44% from November and 38.35% from December 2018. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump said that the European Union has “no choice” but to agree to a new trade deal. In a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Davos on Tuesday, Trump again threatened to levy tariffs on European car imports in the absence of renewed trade commitments from the bloc. Meanwhile the global nickel market deficit tightened to 1,266 tonnes in November from a shortfall of 3,077 tonnes the previous month, the International Nickel Study Group said. Now technically the market is getting support at 1009.1 and below the same could see a test of 1002.8 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1024.7, a move above could see prices testing 1034.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1002.8-1034.

* Nickel remain unchanged as traders are cautious with Wuhan virus outbreak deepened concerns over potential damage to economic growth 

* Wuhan virus outbreak climbed and deepened concerns over the potential damage to economic growth and metals demand.

* Trump again threatened to levy tariffs on European car imports in the absence of renewed trade commitments from the bloc.


Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -0.7% at 141.05 as pressure seen after the update that Indonesian state-owned smelting company PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium will raise its annual smelter capacity to a million tonnes in the next six to seven years from 250,000 tonnes now, its managing director said. Also sentiments remain weak amid growing concerns over the Wuhan virus outbreak and its potential economic impact. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories continue to flow outwards, declining by 18.6kt yesterday (largest since May'19) to 1.31m tonnes. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump told CNBC on Wednesday that the European Union has “no choice” but to agree to a new trade deal. In a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Davos on Tuesday, Trump again threatened to levy tariffs on European car imports in the absence of renewed trade commitments from the bloc. Today traders will be eyeing on the European Central Bank’s first policy meeting of the year should be closely watched today. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.28% to settled at 3363 while prices down -1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 140.5 and below same could see a test of 139.8 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 142.2, a move above could see prices testing 143.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 139.8-143.2.

* Aluminium drop as Indonesia Asahan Aluminium will raise its annual smelter capacity

* Sentiments remain weak amid growing concerns over the Wuhan virus outbreak

* Concerns there after Donald Trump said that the EU has “no choice” but to agree to a new trade deal.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.49% at 1229.5 as demand in the spot market is also low, due to low arrivals from the big centers of Uttar Pradesh. Last year, farmers sowed more due to good prices. Mentha oil production during the year 2019-20 may increase by 30-40%. Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala. Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months. Prices also seen pressure earlier amid expectations of higher acreage under mint due to lucrative prices throughout last year. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Production of mentha oil is expected to rise to 48,000-50,000 tn from 33,000-35,000 tn last year. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1392.20 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-0.40/-.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.05% to settled at 491 while prices down -6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1223.1 and below same could see a test of 1216.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1235.7, a move above could see prices testing 1242.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1216.8-1242.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1392.20 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-0.40/-.

* Mentha oil dropped as demand in the spot market is also low, due to low arrivals from the big centers of Uttar Pradesh.

* Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala.

* Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year.


Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -1.8% at 4142 on profit booking after prices gained due to paucity of quality produce despite the higher mandi arrivals. Quality damage and yield loss has been reported for the new season crop due to the unseasonal and extended rainfall. Apart from quality, output is also expected to remain lower than its preliminary estimates. The USDA said, that soybean production reached 3.56 billion bushels in the past year, rising by 8 million bushels above average, while inventories remained unchanged at 475 million bushels. As per NOPA recent data, NOPA members have crushed total 174.81million bushels of Soybeans in December 2019 which is higher from 164.90million bushels in November 2019. It is also higher from 171.75 million bushels in December 2018.Crushing is above than the average trade estimate of 171.64 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks rose to 1.75billion pounds at the end of December against 1.44billion pounds in November month and 1.498 billion pounds at the end of December 2018. As per the data released by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) in Oct 2019, Soybean production in the country is estimated at 89.94 Lakh tonnes in 2019-20, down 18% from last year owing to yield loss in key growing regions following heavy rains. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  24 Rupees to 4359 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.84% to settled at 170810 while prices down -76 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4100 and below same could see a test of 4058 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4198, a move above could see prices testing 4254.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4058-4254.

* Soyabean dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to paucity of quality produce despite the higher mandi arrivals.

* Quality damage and yield loss has been reported for the new season crop due to the unseasonal and extended rainfall.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by -1262 tonnes to 38126 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  24 Rupees to 4359 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.27% at 882.8 on increased buying tracking firm trend in soybean prices. As per recent released data of Ministry, the total area under Oilseeds is reported lower by 1.3 lakh hectares to 71.79 lakh hectares against 73.08 lakh hectares in the previous year in the corresponding period of time. The country’s oil meals export fell sharply by 79.20 per cent to 67,562 tonne in December 2019, due to price disparity in soybean meal, industry body SEA said. The country had shipped 3,24,927 tonne of oilmeals during December 2018. Oilmeals are used as animal feed in poultry and other sectors. Overall shipment of oilmeals during April-December period of the current fiscal declined by 25 per cent to 18.02 lakh tonne as against 24.11 lakh tonne a year ago, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). “This is mainly due to disparity in export of oilmeals, specifically soybean meal due to higher minimum support price (MSP) of beans which makes the domestic soybean meal expensive in international market compared to other origins,” the SEA said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 908.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.29% to settled at 54080 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 868 and below same could see a test of 854 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 890, a move above could see prices testing 898.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 854-898.

* Ref.Soyaoil prices gained on increased buying tracking firm trend in soybean prices.

* The total area under Oilseeds is reported lower by 1.3 lakh hectares to 71.79 lakh hectares against 73.08 lakh hectares in the previous year

* The country’s oil meals export fell sharply by 79.20 per cent to 67,562 tonne in December 2019, due to price disparity in soybean meal, industry body SEA said

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 908.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.


Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 2.1% at 803.8 on short covering amid higher biodiesel demand in Malaysia and Indonesia and supply tightness buoyed prices. Lower production is expected for the first half of the year as dry weather and lower fertiliser usage in early 2019 curbed yields. Malaysia's Jan. 1-15 palm oil exports rose between 2.2% and 5.8%, cargo surveyors said, which was below expectations. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects palm oil exports to drop 2.5% this year to 18 million tonnes, a top official said. India, the world's largest edible oil buyer, restricted imports of refined palm oil and informally instructed traders to avoid purchases from Malaysia following a diplomatic spat. Palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of edible oils, could fall as much as 11% on the year in 2019/20, hit by a rally in prices and a diplomatic row that is turning its traders away from Malaysia, industry officials said. Last week, India slapped curbs on imports of refined palm oil and informally asked traders to halt all palm imports from Malaysia, the world’s second biggest producer. The step followed repeated objections by India’s Hindu nationalist government to comments by Mahathir Mohamad, the prime minister of Muslim-majority Malaysia, against some recent policies that critics say discriminate against Muslims. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.9% to settled at 3156 while prices up 16.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 786.5 and below same could see a test of 769.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 813, a move above could see prices testing 822.2.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 769.2-822.2.

* Crude palm oil ended with gains on short covering amid higher biodiesel demand in Malaysia and Indonesia and supply tightness buoyed prices.

* According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia hiked Feb crude palm oil export tax to 6.0 percent.

* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 20 fell 9.9 percent to 738,902 tonnes from 819,896 tonnes shipped during December 1 – 20

* Crude palm oil prices in the spot market dropped by 13.10 rupees and settled at 798.70 rupees.


Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -1.09% at 4257 on hopes of higher acreage backed by favourable weather conditions.  Mustard seed sowing stood nearly 3 lakh hectare down, compared to last year in the corresponding period, at 50.71 lakh hectares, showed farm ministry data. NAFED had procured around 1.08 million tonnes mustard seed harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) under a price-support scheme. Out of total procurement, NAFED had procured 6.08 Lakh MT in Rajasthan, 2.51 lakh MT from Haryana ,1.82 lakh MT from Madhya Pradesh ,0.41 Lakh MT from Gujarat and 0.06 Lakh MT from UP. MOPA has estimated all India mustard output at 8.1 million MT in 2018-19 which is 6.89 per cent lower than the initial estimate of 8.7 million MT. However, government in his fourth advance estimate has reported 9.339 million MT for 2018-19 which is 6.13 per cent higher than the third advance estimate of 8.8 million MT. India’s mustard meal exports in the month of July 2019 were 93.837 thousand MT (provisional), higher against 71.064 thousand MT in May 2019. Total exports of rapeseed meal from April 2019 to July 2019 were 3.58 lakh MT which is 10.95 percent lower than 2018-19 exports of 4.02 lakh MT in the same time period. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 4488.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.36% to settled at 12460 while prices down -47 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4231 and below same could see a test of 4204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4294, a move above could see prices testing 4330.

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4204-4330.

* Mustard seed prices ended with losses on hopes of higher acreage backed by favourable weather conditions.  

* Mustard seed sowing stood nearly 3 lakh hectare down, compared to last year in the corresponding period, at 50.71 lakh hectares

* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 50 tonnes to 6348 tonnes.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 4488.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.42% at 6238 due to continuous supply in the spot market as a result of increased mandi arrivals and expectation of higher production in the crop year 2019-20 amid weak demand. Turmeric supply reported higher in the spot market, as stockists were releasing their stocks. Sufficient carryover stocks and sluggish demand from domestic and overseas buyers weighed on prices. Sluggish demand from domestic stockists and expectations of higher crop in the current 2019-20 season also pressurized prices. As per the market feedback, the quality of Turmeric that is coming in the market right now is poor and from the old stock which led to the slowdown in demand. Demand remains weak in domestic as well as overseas market. On export front, India exported 0.75 Lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (April- October) a decrease of 13% from the same period of last year. India exported around 0.10 Lakh tonnes of Turmeric in October 2019 which is 16% less than 0.12 Lakh tonnes shipped in October 2018. In 2019-20 marketing year (Feb-Jan), total arrivals reported are up by 30% to around 5.4 Lakh tonne from 4.1 Lakh tonne reported same period last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6152.5 Rupees dropped -27.25 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.71% to settled at 5065 while prices down -26 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6196 and below same could see a test of 6154 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6296, a move above could see prices testing 6354.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6154-6354.

* Turmeric dropped due to continuous supply in the spot market as a result of increased mandi arrivals.

* Pressure also seen amid expectation of higher production in the crop year 2019-20 amid weak demand.

* The quality of Turmeric that is coming in the market right now is poor and from the old stock which led to the slowdown in demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6152.5 Rupees dropped -27.25 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.25% at 14595  as adequate rainfall coupled with decent prices have brightened the prospects of cumin (jeera) farmers in Gujarat. The acreage sown with cumin in the state has increased by 44% and output is likely to rise by 25% in 2020. Favourable climatic conditions and improved water availability following good monsoon rains have brightened crop prospects. Jeera growers in Rajasthan and Gujarat are expecting about 25-30 per cent higher yield over last year.  Farmers point to a crop size of about 5 lakh tonnes as against about 4.1 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The yield is going to be much better this year. Farmers pointed out a marginal impact on the crop due to last month’s locust attack in southern Rajasthan and north Gujarat, primarily the jeera and coriander growing regions. As per the latest data from the Gujarat government on rabi sowing, there is a 36 per cent jump in area under jeera cultivation over last year. Jeera acreage was reported at 4.71 lakh hectares (3.45 lakh ha). In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -25.75 Rupees to end at 15883.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.75% to settled at 2040 while prices down -185 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14525 and below same could see a test of 14450 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14710, a move above could see prices testing 14820.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14450-14820.

* Jeera dropped as adequate rainfall coupled with decent prices have brightened the prospects of jeera farmers in Gujarat.

* Favourable climatic conditions and improved water availability following good monsoon rains have brightened crop prospects.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by -509 tonnes to 144 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -25.75 Rupees to end at 15883.35 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.77% at 19750 on short covering after prices dropped as cotton exports fall to nearly half on higher domestic prices during October-December 2019. India's cotton exports for the first three months of the season have tumbled to nearly half or by down about 45 per cent to 10 lakh bales the October - December 2019 period from 17 lakh bales in the same period last year. "There were multiple factors responsible for the decline in exports in the first three months October - December 2019. Our domestic prices were higher than international prices because we had a very thin crop last year. This impacted our cotton exports, which fell by nearly half as compared to last year," Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI) told. The cotton trade has seen sharp fluctuations in the crop size and thereby in the prices over the past one year. The 2018-19 crop stood at 312 lakh bales, which was a record low as against 365 lakh bales reported in the previous year. However, for the current season 2019-20, the CAI has retained its crop estimate at 354.5 lakh bales. Cotton imports, on the other hand, have shown increase during the period under review October-December 2019. The CAI data revealed that cotton shipments arrived at Indian ports till December 31, 2019 stood at 6.5 lakh bales, which was 3.53 lakh bales for the same period last year.  Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.76% to settled at 3604 while prices up 150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 19540 and below same could see a test of 19320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 19890, a move above could see prices testing 20020.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 19320-20020.

* Cotton gained on short covering after prices dropped as cotton exports fall to nearly half on higher domestic prices during October-December 2019.

* India's cotton exports for the first three months of the season have tumbled to nearly half or by down about 45 per cent to 10 lakh bales

* The CAI data revealed that cotton shipments arrived at Indian ports till December 31, 2019 stood at 6.5 lakh bales, which was 3.53 lakh bales for the same period

* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 10.00 rupees and settled at 19340.00 rupees. 


Chana

Chana on NCDEX settled down by -1.8% at 4089 as pressure seen after Nafed has requested food ministry for allowing chana sale at Rs. 4100 per quintal. Pressure also amid higher availability of stock, higher  area coverage and weak demand. Right now NAFED is selling chana at Rs. 4400 per quintal. Ministry may accept request as new crop is at hand and crop size may touch record level as crops in good condition while area may exceed 110lakh ha this year. Nafed is concerned about storage place and eager to offload stock as soon as possible from the second week of Feb new crop from MP is likely to start, followed by Maharashtra and AP and Rajasthan. Farmers have covered 102.39 lakh ha against 94.28 lakh habits is higher by 7.91 percent. Chana area in Maharashtra is 62% up to 19.66 lakh ha, it 42% up in Rajasthan to 21.38 lakh ha. However, it is down by 6.62 5 to 27.35 lakh ha. Current sowing pace hints area to exceed 110 lakh ha this year. From stock point of view Nafed still has 16.4 lakh MT chana. Out of this 10 lakh MT has been reserved for supply to the state govt. MP has 13 lakh MT chana while Raj has 2.4 lakh MT. Nafed may start selling chana in both states from mid Jan. Area is likely to exceed 110 lakh ha and weather remains favourable. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 22260 while prices down -75 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4060 and below same could see a test of 4032 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4139, a move above could see prices testing 4190.

Trading Ideas:

* Chana trading range for the day is 4032-4190.

* Chana prices dropped as pressure seen after Nafed has requested food ministry for allowing chana sale at Rs. 4100 per quintal.

* Pressure also amid higher availability of stock, higher  area coverage and weak demand.

* Ministry may accept NAFED request as new crop is at hand and crop size may touch record level as crops in good condition while area may exceed 110lakh ha

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -157.85 Rupees to end at 4219.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.


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