Published on 19/08/2019 10:09:46 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 19 August 2019 Commodities - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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* On Friday, Jeera futures on NCDEX were seen steadying near the four month lows. Following an initial bounce, the active September futures on the bourse was seen hovering near the four month low hit in the previous session.

* According to the farm ministry's second advance estimates, jeera output is seen at 423,000 tn in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), down 44% from the previous estimate.

* Coriander futures were held in thin ranges on Friday. The active Septmeber futures on NCDEX were seen varying in narrow ranges near its lowest level since October 2018. Subdued demand weighed on.

* Govt. estimates coriander output in 2018-19 to be at 756000 tonnes versus 784000 tonnes.

* Turmeric futures bounced back on Friday, with the most active September futures gained more than two per cent.

* In Maharashtra and Karnataka, Turmeric growing regions like Sangli and Belgaum excess rainfall reported. As per initial information, Turmeric standing crop report-ed damaged due to submerged of turmeric field. However, actual damage percent-age likely to come after one week. Earlier (before rainfall) in Sangli re-gions Turmeric sowing area (from normal) reported down by 10 – 15% due to defi-cient rainfall. Other parts of Maharashtra, Turmeric growing regions like Basmat, Nanded standing crop reported well.

* Govt ups 2018-19 turmeric output estimate to 1.39 million tonnes versus 1.15 mil-lion tonnes.

* Rise in arrivals put downwards pressure on cardamom on Friday. On MCX, the near-month September futures slipped four per cent.

* Production of the cardamom in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is expected to shrink to a two-decade low of 7,000-8,000 tn. In 2018-19, India produced 12,900 tn cardamom.

* According to Indian Spices Committee, the crop year 2018 - 2019, pepper exports were down 25% in the 9 months to December 2018. Exporters said export volume in the 2018 - 2019 season could only reach 15,000 tons. In 2017-18, pepper export was 16,840 tons. On the world market, Malabar black pepper is stable at an aver-age price of USD 4,874 / ton; Indian domestic black pepper price reached about 340 rupees / kg. Indian pepper is being offered at around $ 6,000 / ton in export markets. International pepper prices are declining due to higher yields in many countries than India.



* All components in the edible oil complex fell on Friday.

* Most active Sep contract of soybean on NCDEX settled down on expectation of rise in acreage which will increase yield as the weather is conducive for growth of standing crop.

* Farmers have sown soybean over 11.15 mln ha, up from 11.10 mln ha a year ago, according to Agriculture ministry.

* According to the SEA, soymeal exports in July were down 59% on year to 26,006 tn, the lowest monthly figure since September 2016.

* India's vegetable oil imports in July rose nearly 26% on year to 1.41 mln tn, including 1.35 mln tn of edible oils and 64,119 tn of non-edible oils, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said. For Nov-Jul, vegeta-ble oil imports were up 4.6% on year at 11.3 mln tn

* The September mustard contract on the NCDEX also traded lower due to increase in kharif oilseed crop along with tepid demand from oil millers. However, major fall was arrested by increase in mustard crush-ing.

* Mills in India crushed 525,000 tn of mustard seed in July, over 16.7% higher on year, according to data compiled by the Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.

* The SEA reported that mustard meal exports were 19% higher on year at 93,837 tn in July.

* The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has offered to sell 26,454.04 tn of mustard seed through NCDEX e-Markets, according to its tender notice.

* In its third advance estimate, the farm ministry increased soybean production estimate to 13.74 mln tn in 2018-19 from 13.69 mln tn pegged earlier. At 13.74 mln tn, the oilseed output will be a sharp 25.7% higher on year.

* The area under kharif castor seed crop was down 21.9% on year at 189,500 ha in the week ended Thurs-day, according to data from the farm ministry, due to slower pace of sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan,

* According to the SEA report, castor oil exports in the month of June 2019 is 50.57 Thousand MT which is 18 per cent higher than the exports of May 2019 of 42.86 Thousand MT. Castor oil exports in financial year 2018-19 is 5.72 Lakh MT which is 12.1 per cent lower than the last year exports of 6.51 Lakh MT.

* According to the SEA report, The export of oilmeals during July 2019 is at 166,301 tons compared to 215,716 tons in July, 2018 i.e. down by 23%. The overall export of oilmeals during AprilJuly 2019 is report-ed at 851,070 tons compared to 966,874 tons in April-July 2018 i.e. down by 12%. The export of castorseed meal has increased to 229,820(75,597) tons, being mainly exported to South Korea. Apart from South Korea, France, Vietnam and Thailand are major importers.

* As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), all India castor seed production estimate for 2018-19 is 11.27 Lakh MT which is 21.35 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production estimate of 14.33 Lakh MT.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global oilseed production in 2019-20 to 586.0 mln tn from 597.7 mln tn, primarily due to decline in production of soybean and mustard in key growing nations.

* Palm oil exports from Malaysia rose 7.4% on month in July, and stocks for the same period fell 0.8%, according to the Malaysia Palm Oil Board.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports are estimated to have risen 1.64% on month during July, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia.

* The US Department of Agriculture has estimated Indonesia's palm oil production for 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) 3.6% higher on year at 43.0 mln tn


* Good rainfall in India's cotton growing states has led to increased sowing, with acreage rising 5.4% on year to 11.87 mln ha as of last week.

* Vietnam is seen emerging as a major buyer of domestic cotton since its trade with the US has taken a hit due to trade issues, data from showed. Vietnam imports 61% of its cotton from the US. Shipment of Indian cotton to Vietnam rose 26% on-month in Jul to 2,271 tn, On the other hand, US cotton exports to Vietnam suffered a 21% decline. However, cotton exports to Vietnam were down 84% on year.

* The report also forecast that overall cotton imports to Vietnam may dip further in August.The US Department of Agriculture has further cut its forecast for average global cotton prices in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) by 3 cents from previous month to 60 cents per pound noting lower demand from major consuming countries, which may lead to increase in ending stocks for the year.

* The Cotton Advisory Board today made a sharp 7% downward revision in estimate for India's output in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) to 33.7 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 36.1 mln bales it forecast in its first estimate in November.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee sees global cotton prices under pressure due to esca-lating concerns over the US-China trade spat and on expectations of higher stocks. The committee sees global production in 2019-20 to rise 7% on year to around 27.6 mln tn due to an increase in global yields and consumption is expected to rise by 1% to 27.3 mln tn.

* The Chinese government has sold around 224,000 tn of cotton from its state reserves during May 5-Jun 6 against 262,800 tn offered at the auction. This year, the daily sale quota has been set around 10,000 tn compared with the previous two years' 30,000 tn because the total stock fell to 2.5 mln tn ahead of the auctions, compared with 7.0 mln tn a few years ago. In 2018, the country had sold around 2.5 mln tn cotton from its reserves. The Asian giant has been drawing down its massive cotton reserves built over the past three years.

* Cotton Outlook raised its estimates for 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) global cotton crop estimate by 308,000 tn to 27.36 mln tn, led by likely increases in the US and Uzbekistan. The agency has raised the pro-duction estimate for the US by 303,000 tn to 5.04 mln tn. It has, however, maintained its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) cotton production at 6.13 mln tn.

* Cotton outlook has raised its 2019-20 global cotton consumption view to 26.69 mln tn from 26.64 mln tn forecast in the previous month. Global ending stock levels of cotton are now seen at 667,000 tn, compared with 409,000 tn projected in April.

* Cotton Outlook has maintained its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) production at 6.13 mln tn, which would be 7% higher on year, the agency said in its monthly report.

* USDA has slightly cut the global crop to 125.61 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) for 2019-20, down from 125.79 mln bales in the previous year but up from 119.19 mln bales in 2018-19. The rise in supply comes mostly from the US, where output is pegged at 14-year high of 22.52 mln bales, up from 22.00 mln bales estimated in the previous month.

* Global consumption is forecast at 123.07 mln bales, down from its July projection of 124.27 mln bales, leading to rise in global ending stock at 82.42 mln bales compared with 80.42 mln bales estimated a month ago. Higher inventories are also attributed to 500,000-bale rise in beginning stock for 2019-20 due to lower consumption in the previous year in India, China and Uzbekistan, USDA said.

* USDA has retained its crop forecast for India at 29.0 mln bales, but cut its forecast for exports from India in 2019-20 to 4.2 mln bales from 4.4 mln bales estimated a month ago. Estimate for imports



* Due to rough weather condition and disease in Canada & parts of US chickpeas growing belts concerns have started surfacing regarding yield potential. Fear have been ex-pressed over quality too. Chickpeas crop is suffering from aschochyta blight. It reduce yield and hamper quality too. If it is not contained in its early stages ,yield loss might be 60 to 70 percent this year.

* As per latest update by Australia Bureau of Statistics Australia exported 27,251 MT chickpea in June-2019 against 24719MT in May. It is higher by around 10% from May. With this total shipment in current MY was registered at 259836 MT till June against 646,411 MT during last MY. Bangladesh emerged the largest buyer in June ,buying 8463 MT, followed by Pakistan at 8064 and UAE at 4991MT.

* At chickpeas front farmers in Canada has covered 1.35 lakh ha area under chickpeas. At 1.73 MT yield per ha2.30lakh MT production has been pegged this year. The season started with 1.85 lakh MT carrying and with 18000 MT likely import total supply is ex-pected to be around4.33lakh MT this year. At 1lakh MT estimated export carry out would increase from1.85 to 2.60lakh MT this year.

* Chickpea area in Australia is expected to increase 22.11% from 303(2018-29) to 370 thousand ha in 2019-20.Even production is expected to to increase by29.79 % to 3.66 lakh MT in 2019-20.It was 2.82 lakh MT in 2018-19.

* India's Apr-Jun guar gum exports fell 5.5% on year to 127,700 tn, according to Agricul-tural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority data. A sharp decline in demand from the American oil & gas industry amid a slowdown in drilling of shale oil may have impacted the exports. Guar gum is used largely as a sealant in fracking at shale oil facilities.

* As per latest update, area sown under guar seed in Rajasthan until 08th August 2019 is 2424.20 thousand hectares compared to of 2806.9 thousand hectares for 2018 Kharif season. Area of guar is expected to be slightly lower this season as farmers are shifting to more remunerative crops. Lower sowing and rainfall compared to last year are sup-porting guar prices.

* According to latest update, area sown under guar seed in Gujarat until 05th August 2019 is 66718 hectares compared to 86338 hectares in the previous Kharif season. Area of guar is expected to be lower this season as farmers are shifting to more remunera-tive crops as it is fetching more returns. The last three year average normal area for guar seed in Gujarat is 186650 hectares.


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