Published on 17/09/2019 10:07:15 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 17 September 2019 Commodities - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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* Jeera stretched losses on Monday. The most active October futures on NCDEX hit its weakest level since mid-April this year on concerns over quality amidst expectations of good crop in upcoming season.

* According to the third advance estimates released by the farm ministry , jeera produc-tion was pegged at 608,000 tn in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep), compared with 689,000 tn last year.

* Dhaniya October futures on NCDEX on Monday gained more than one per cent on Mon-day as continuous rains in one of the major trading center in Rajasthan affected sup-ply.

* Govt. estimates coriander output in 2018-19 to be at 567000 tones versus 756000 tones.

* Higher crop expectation in the current 2019-20 kharif season maintained downwards pressure on turmeric. The October futures on NCDEX fell more than 2.5 per cent on Monday, hitting its lowest level since March-end this year.

* As per Andhra Pradesh Govt, Turmeric sowing as on 04th September 2019 reported 9,722 hectares (from normal area) as compared to 16,867 hectares in the correspond-ing period last year.

* As per Telangana Govt, Turmeric sowing as on 04th September 2019 reported 48,315 hectares as compared to 47,790 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

* Current year in Tamil Nadu, Turmeric sowing around 70 – 72% reported due to lower rainfall. Turmeric sowing almost completed.

* Govt cuts 2018-19 dry turmeric output estimate to 931000 tonnes versus 1.4 million tonnes.

* Cardamom October futures on MCX advanced, hitting its highest level in five week on Monday.

* The current season, officially began on August 1. From 1st August 2019 to 07th Sep-tember 2019 arrivals reported 731 tons and sales 687 tons.

* Last season total arrivals reported from 1st August 2018 to 31st July 2019 arrivals re-ported 19,100 tons and sales 18,639 tons.

* Govt keeps 2018-19 cardamom output estimate unchanged at 22000 tonnes.


* All the components in the edible oil complex rallied yesterday.

* More active Oct soybean rose yesterday due to heavy rains in key growing areas caused crop damage to standing crops. Moreover, rains also delayed harvesting of soybean in those regions.

* Oct. RMseed prices on NCDEX traded higher on back of improved demand for oil from millers. However, major upside was limited due to expectation of rise in mustard seed acreage in upcoming sowing season.

* Acreage of soybean, which accounts for about 40% of the country's oilseed output, was up at 11.33 mln ha so far against 11.25 mln ha in the year-ago period.

* In the third advanced estimates, ministry expects higher Indian Soybean crop (Kharif) at 137.43 lakh tonnes for 2018/19 season against 109.33 lakh tonnes in 2017/18.

* U.S. soybean production for the 2019-2020 marketing year at 3.6 billion bushels, down 47 million from its previ-ous forecast, citing a lower yield forecast of 47.9 bushels per acre. The USDA also forecast ending stocks of soy-beans at 640 million bushels, down 115 million from last month's view.

* According to the SEA, soymeal exports in July were down 59% on year to 26,006 tn, the lowest monthly figure since September 2016.

* According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), Import of vegetable oils during August 2019 Up by 5% to 1,586,514 tons compared to 1,512,597 tons in August 2018, consisting 1,523,261 tons of edible oils and 63,253 tons of non-edible oils. However the overall import of vegetable oils during November 2018 to August 2019 is reported at 12,867,486 tons compared to 12,278,673 tons during the same period of last year i.e. up by 5%.

* The stock of edible oils as on 1st Sept., 2019 at various ports is estimated at 882,000 tons (CPO 335,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 250,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 120,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 175,000 tons to and Rapeseed Oil 2,000 and about 11,60,000 tons in pipelines. Total stock at ports and in pipelines is reported at 2,042,000 tons, increased by 47,000 tons from 1,995,000 tons as on 1st August, 2019. India’s monthly requirement is about 19.00 lakh tons and operate at 30 days stock against which currently holding stock over 20.42 lakh tons equal to 32 days requirements against 25.74 lakh tons as on 1st Sept., 2018.

* Mills in India crushed 575,000 tn of mustard seed in August, up by 15% higher compared to previous month, ac-cording to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India. Higher crushing is due to improved export demand from South Korea.

* The SEA reported that mustard meal exports were 19% higher on year at 93,837 tn in July.

* In its third advance estimate, the farm ministry increased soybean production estimate to 13.74 mln tn in 2018-19 from 13.69 mln tn pegged earlier. At 13.74 mln tn, the oilseed output will be a sharp 25.7% higher on year.

* The area under kharif castor seed crop was down 21.9% on year at 189,500 ha in the week ended Thurs-day, according to data from the farm ministry, due to slower pace of sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan,

* According to the SEA report, castor oil exports in the month of June 2019 is 50.57 Thousand MT which is 18 per cent higher than the exports of May 2019 of 42.86 Thousand MT. Castor oil exports in financial year 2018-19 is 5.72 Lakh MT which is 12.1 per cent lower than the last year exports of 6.51 Lakh MT.

* According to the SEA report, The export of oilmeals during July 2019 is at 166,301 tons compared to 215,716 tons in July, 2018 i.e. down by 23%. The overall export of oilmeals during AprilJuly 2019 is reported at 851,070 tons compared to 966,874 tons in April-July 2018 i.e. down by 12%. The export of castorseed meal has increased to 229,820(75,597) tons, being mainly exported to South Korea. Apart from South Korea, France, Vietnam and Thai-land are major importers.

* As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), all India castor seed production estimate for 2018-19 is 11.27 Lakh MT which is 21.35 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production estimate of 14.33 Lakh MT.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global oilseed production in 2019-20 to 586.0 mln tn from 597.7 mln tn, primarily due to decline in production of soybean and mustard in key growing nations.

* Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of August declined 5.3% from the previous month to 2.25 million tonnes, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).Palm oil output in August gained 4.6% to 1.82 million tonnes from the previous month, and exports rose 16.4% from July to 1.73 million tonnes.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 23.2% on month at 393,129 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia.

* In July, imports of crude palm oil rose 47% on year to 532,784 tn, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Govt. ups import duty on Malaysian RBD palm oils by 500 bps for 6 months. Govt. ups import duty on Malaysian refined palm oils by 5% for 6 months.


* Textile body wants cotton yarn under new export incentive plan.

* The area under cotton in the country was at 12.66 mln ha as of last week, up 5% on year. The acreage has surpassed the normal sowing area of 11.6 mln ha for the period.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for average global cotton price in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) for the fourth consecutive month due to lower demand from major consuming countries, which would lead to a rise in ending stocks for the year. For 2019-20, global cotton production is now seen at 124.9 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg), against the forecast of 125.6 mln bales in August, as crop in the US and Australia is expected to be slightly smaller.Globally, con-sumption is now estimated to decline to 121.7 mln bales, against the previous forecast of 123.1 mln bales, leading to rise in global ending stock at 83.8 mln bales, compared with 82.5 mln bales esti-mated a month ago.

* USDA has scaled up its crop forecast for India to 29.5 mln bales, but cut its estimate for exports to 4.0 mln bales from 4.2 mln bales estimated a month ago. The forecast for imports by the country has been increased to 1.6 mln bales from 1.4 mln bales the previous month.Opening stock of cotton for 2019-20 is projected at 10.0 mln bales, against 9.13 mln bales estimated in August, though consumption is seen lower at 24.8 mln bales from 25.0 mln bales. As such, closing stocks are now seen at 12.4 mln bales, against 10.3 mln bales forecast in August.

* The report also forecast that overall cotton imports to Vietnam may dip further in August. The US Department of Agriculture has further cut its forecast for average global cotton prices in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) by 3 cents from previous month to 60 cents per pound noting lower demand from major consuming countries, which may lead to increase in ending stocks for the year.

* The Cotton Association of India has scaled down its import estimate for 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) to 2.9 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 3.1 mln bales. The association has also lowered its export estimate to 4.4 mln bales from 4.6 mln bales. The production estimate for 2018-19 has been main-tained at 31.2 mln bales.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee sees global cotton prices under pressure due to esca-lating concerns over the US-China trade spat and on expectations of higher stocks. The committee sees global production in 2019-20 to rise 7% on year to around 27.6 mln tn due to an increase in global yields and consumption is expected to rise by 1% to 27.3 mln tn.

* Cotton Outlook raised its estimates for 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) global cotton crop estimate by 308,000 tn to 27.36 mln tn, led by likely increases in the US and Uzbekistan. The agency has raised the pro-duction estimate for the US by 303,000 tn to 5.04 mln tn. It has, however, maintained its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) cotton production at 6.13 mln tn.

* UK-based Cotton Outlook has maintained its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) production at 6.13 mln tn, which would be 7% higher on year, and has downward revised its projection for the global crop falling by 51,000 tn to 26.68 mln tn, due to a fall in production in Brazil and Uzbeki-stan. However, the production estimate is seen higher by 52,000 tn to 4.9 mln tn in the US. The agency has also lowered its 2019-20 global cotton consumption view to 25.7 mln tn from 25.9 mln tn seen in the previous month.



* Chickpeas export from Russia increased from 25399 MT in May to 41970 MT in June -2019 as per the latest data of Federal Customs Service of Russia. Total export this MY has reached at 141644 MT, up by 443 % from last year. Pakistan brought 19768 MT while Turkey purchased 11465 MT. Even Indian importers imported 5791 MT in the month of June. July details are awaited.

* As per the latest updates by Australia Bureau of Statistics chickpeas export from Aus-tralia declined in July to 16632MT against 25805 MT in June-2019. It is almost 36% down from June. Total export till July was recorded at 275,049 MT, massively down from 671,642 during the last marketing year. Pakistan, Bangladesh and UAE pur-chased 4,474 MT,4,403 MT & 2,455 MT. respectively in July-2019.

* Nafed has started offering chana in Maharashtra, U.P. & M.P. It has offered 5400 MT in Mah,1831.47 MT in U.P. &20815.96 MT in M.P. It has passed tender for 420 MT in Khandwa at Rs 3981.In other states like Rajasthan, Gujarat & MH, bids were not passed due to lower price. As market is already reeling under pressure, acceptance of lower bid may pressurize cash market further. Buyers are unwilling to buy in bulk quantity as sentiments turned weak.

* National Bulk Handling Corporation Ltd, which has been warehouse service provider for multiple commodities on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange, will now only provide services for single commodity i.e. guar gum, the bourse said in a circular. The warehouse services provider shall get de-accredited as warehouse service provider for castor, cotton seed oilcake, guar seed from the date of completion of delivery of goods.

* As per latest update, area sown under Guar in Rajasthan until 05th September 2019 is 3032.80 thousand hectares compared to of 3065.80 thousand hectares for 2018 Kharif season. Area of guar is slightly lower than target of 3100 thousand hectares this season as farmers are shifting to more remunerative crops.

* As per latest update, area sown under Guar in Haryana until 27th August 2019 is 2.05 hectares compared to of 2.54 lakh hectares for 2018 Kharif season.

* NCDEX, with the approval from SEBI, has modified the name of guar gum contracts to guar gum refined spills effective from Sep 3, 2019, according to a circular on the ex-change's website.

* According to latest update, area sown under Guar in Gujarat until 26th August 2019 is 123922 hectares compared to 106222 hectares in the previous Kharif season. The last three year average normal area for guar seed in Gujarat is 186650 hectares.


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