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Published on 8/06/2020 9:12:30 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 08 June 2020 - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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SPICES

* Choppy trades were witnessed in Jeera June futures on NCDEX on Friday. Amidst estimates of higher crop, tepid demand along with rise in arrivals in the spot market weighed on overall market sentiments.

* According to the Spices Board, exports rose 27 per cent during Apr-Dec 2019 to 167000 compared to same period last year.

* Coriander June futures on NCDEX rose more than 3.5 per cent on Friday on improved demand amidst fall in arrivals in the spot market.

* Govt. pegs 2019-20 coriander output at 762000 tonnes.

* According to Spices Board of India data, coriander exports were at 36750 tonnes during Apr-Dec 2019, up by one per cent compared to same period last year.

* Turmeric June futures on NCDEX jumped nearly four per cent to hit its highest level in about two weeks on Friday. Fall in arrivals in the main spot market of Nizamabad along with export demand pushed up the prices of the yellow spice.

* The agricultural mandis in Nizamabad, Telengana, have resumed trade on Wednesday after remaining shut for over two months due to a nationwide lockdown imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus pandemic

* Telangana pegs 2019-20 turmeric crop at 307,000 tn vs 294,000 tn

* Govt. pegs 2019-20 turmeric output at 913000 tonnes.

* For the period Apr-Dec 2019, India exported 101,500 tn of turmeric, marginally up compared to 101,000 tonnes exported during the same period in 2018. However, in the value terms it showed a three per cent fall.

* Cardamom June futures on MCX was unchanged on Friday as well.

* The average price of small cardamom at the e-auction held on Jun 5 in Puttady, Kerala, was 1780.4 rupees per kg, data from Spices Board India showed. The highest price at auction, conducted by Sugandhagiri Spices Promoters & Traders Pvt Ltd, was 2,210 rupees per kg. A total 91.25 tn of cardamom was up for auction, all of which were sold.

* Spices Board India has sought permission to resume the electronic auction of small cardamom at its centre in Bodinayakanur, Tamil Nadu, the board said in a circular. Auctions at this centre were suspended since Mar 16 to contain the rapid spread of novel coronavirus.

* Small cardamom auctions in Puttady, another e-auction centre in Kerala, will resume from May 28, the board said in a circular. The board will hold one auction at this centre on alternate days between 1030 IST to 1600 IST till it gets approval to conduct two auctions daily.

 

OILSEED

* Except CPO, all commodities in the edible oil seed basket rose on Friday.

* MCX June CPO futures settled lower due poor demand in the spot markets. But, NCDEX June Soy oil futures traded higher tracking gains in the international U.S CBOT soybean oil prices. .

* NCDEX June Soybean futures traded higher due to lower arrivals in the spot markets because of lean supply season along with gains in U.S CBOT soybean prices on report of higher overseas demand in U.S. June Mustard seed settled marginally higher on back of higher demand amid lower arrivals.

* India's edible oil imports fell around 40% on year to 707,478 tn in May, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in a release.

* IGC reported that global soybean production is now seen at 363 mln tn in 2020-21 against 364 mln tn pegged last month.

* The Union Cabinet approved a hike in minimum support price for 14 major kharif crops. MSP for soybean hiked by Rs.170 to 3880 from 3710 per 100 kg.

* The US Department of Agriculture has revised palm oil production for Indonesia for 2019-20 at 41.5 mln tn, against the earlier estimate of 42.5 mln tn as plantation authorities may scale down production or cease harvest looking at the current higher stocks.

*  The US Department of Agriculture has pegged global oilseed production in 2020-21 at 605.9 mln tn, compared with its estimate of 575.2 mln tn for 2019-20, primarily due to higher soybean production in its report for May. The report has pegged global soybean output 26.6 mln tn higher on year at 362.8 mln tn. For Brazil, soybean output is seen rising by 7.0 mln tn to 131.0 mln tn. Production of the oilseed in the US, is also seen rising by 15.5 mln tn to 112.3 mln tn. In Argentina, another key grower, soybean output is expected to be 2.5 mln tn higher at 53.5 mln tn. Global production of high-oil content seeds is projected up 3% from 2019- 20 on increased canola production for Canada, Australia, and Ukraine, and higher sunflower seed production for Argentina and Ukraine. Partly offsetting is lower sunflower seed production for Turkey. Demand for protein meal from China is also seen higher on year in 2020-21. Global protein meal consumption outside of China is projected to increase 2% in 2020-21, down from the prior five-year average of 3% due to the slowing global economy. Given the higher demand for protein meal, global soybean exports are expected to increase by 8.0 mln tn to 161.9 mln tn during the period. Of these stocks, China is seen buying the largest share at 96.0 mln tn.

* India's edible oil imports fell around 34% on year at 790,377 tn in April compared to 1,198,763 tons in April 2019 , The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in a release. The overall import of edible oils during Nov-2019 to April 2020 is reported to down by 14 percent at 6,182,184 tons compared to 7,203,830 tons during the same period of previous year.

* India's oilmeal exports plunged 54% on year to 177,003 tn in March due to tepid purchases by major buyers, according to data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. For the year ended March, oilmeal exports were at 2.4 mln tn, against 3.3 mln tn the previous year. The export of soybmeal reduced to nearly half, mainly due to disparity in export and better realisation in domestic market. In March, soymeal exports slumped to 32,818 tn from 214,788 tn a year ago.

* Rapeseed-mustard meal exports fell 4.3% on year to 89,235 tn, while exports of rice bran oil fell 90% on year to 30,620 tn in March, according to SEA.

* The demand for the vegetable oil is likely to decline further in the second half of 2020 due to disruption in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, said Dorab Mistry, director of London-based Godrej International.

* Mustard crop for 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is pegged at 9.1 mln tn as against 9.3 mln tn produced a year ago, farm ministry data. Farmers across the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha as of Thursday, down 0.4% on year, farm ministry data showed.

* According to Government 2nd advance estimate, castor production in 2019-20 is expected at 2.0 mln tn, up from the previous estimate of 1.7 mln tn. Castor seed output in India is estimated at 2.1 mln tn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun), up from 1.1 mln tn pegged last year, according to a survey conducted by Indian Agribusiness Systems Ltd and commissioned by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* India's castor oil exports fell 6% on year to 38,199 tn in January, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India's data. For Apr-Jan, exports were also down at 441,030 tn, compared with 472,192 tn during the year-ago period. In 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), India's castor oil exports slipped to 571,985 tn in 2018-19 from 651,326 tn in the previous year.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output rose 18.3% on month in April to 1.7 mln tn, according to data from Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The country's total palm oil inventories rose 18.3% to little above 2.0 mln tn in April. Stocks of processed palm oil in the country were at 999,744 tn in April against 899,931 tn a month ago, and those of crude palm oil were at little above 1.0 mln tn compared with 829,649 tn in March. Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 4.4% higher at 1.2 mln tn, and its biodiesel exports fell 90.6% to 6,427 tn.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports on May were estimated 8.4% higher on month to 1.26 mln tn, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia's data showed.

 

Cotton

* Arrivals of cotton in spot markets across the country today fell to 48,500 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 55,500 bales on Thursday, sources said. In Gujarat, the Shankar-6 variety was sold at 32,300-33,500 rupees per candy (1 candy = 355.62 kg) and in Maharashtra, the 29-30 mm variety was sold at 34,500-35,500 rupees per candy.

* ICRA reported that recent announcement of a hike in minimum support prices is likely to boost India's cotton acreage in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season, though it may be unfavourable for the domestic spinning sector. The government has increased the support price for medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg for the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing season, and that for long staple by 275 rupees. ICRA says that demand and trade prospects this year have been severely hampered by the pandemic. Demand for end-use segments such as fabric and apparel, and yarn is also being hit. This has resulted in a decline in cotton consumption this year.

* India's closing stock of cotton are expected to shoot up significantly, after having remained range-bound over the past two to three years. Cotton prices in India are likely to remain under pressure as supply exceeds demand. However, higher support prices are expected to act as a floor and will prevent a major fall.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee sees 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) season ending stocks at a five-year high as consumption and trade have been hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The committee estimated global cotton ending stock for the ongoing season at 21.75 mln tn compared with 18.63 mln tn last year. Global consumption is expected to decline 11.3% on year at 23.06 mln tn. In China, the world's top consumer, cotton consumption is expected to fall to 7.25 mln tn in 2019-20 season, while in India it is projected to decline to 4.75 mln tn. Global exports are projected to fall 8.1% on year to 8.34 mln tn.The committee has increased its price forecast for Cotlook A index, a global benchmark for prices of raw cotton, by a cent from the previous month to 72 cents per pound for 2019-20.

* The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service has retained its estimate for India's 2020- 21 (Aug-Jul) cotton crop at 28.5 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg). The estimated production is nearly 3% lower compared with that of the previous year mainly due to a decline in acreage. Cotton acreage is seen at 12.6 mln ha in 2020-21, compared with 13.3 mln ha in 2019-20.The average yield of cotton is expected to rise to 491 kg per ha from 480 kg last year. India’s cotton consumption for 2020-21 is seen at 23.0 mln bales, against 21.0 mln bales in the current year.Exports are projected to rise to 3.5 mln bales in the coming season, while imports are expected to decline to 1.0 mln bales. The opening stock of cotton in India is pegged at 16.8 mln bales. The closing stock is estimated at 19.8 mln bales, compared with the 16.8 mln bales projected in 2019-20.

*  The Cotton Corp of India has lowered its discount price by 200 rupees a candy (1 candy = 355 kg) on bulk purchases of cotton bales procured in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) and 2019-20 marketing years, Chairman and Managing Director Pradeep Agarwal said. The revised discount ranges from 8,000-9,800 rupees per candy (1 candy = 355 kg), compared with 8,200-10,000 rupees offered in May, and the revised discounts will be applicable till Jun 30.  UK-based Cotton Outlook has cut its global cotton consumption estimate to 22.2 mln tn for 2019-20 (AugJul), from 22.5 mln tn projected last month. Consumption has considerably declined in major markets lead to a rise in ending stocks on in its May report. Global ending stock of cotton in the current season is pegged at 3.6 mln tn compared with 3.56 mln tn projected in the previous month. The agency cut its projection for global production to 25.8 mln tn in 2019-20, due to a likely fall of output in India.The country's 2019-20 cotton production is seen at 6.04 mln tn, compared with 6.29 mln tn projected in the previous month.

* The Cotton Association of India has revised downward its crop estimate for India in the 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) season to 33.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), from 35.45 mln bales projected in the previous month.The association has also lowered its estimate for domestic consumption to 28.0 mln bales for the current year, compared with 33.1 mln bales a month ago.The estimate for imports has also been lowered to 1.5 mln bales, from 2.5 mln bales. Considering the opening stock of 3.2 mln bales, the cotton body expects the total supply in the current season to be around 37.7 mln bales. It has revised upward its export estimate at 4.7 mln bales, from 4.2 mln bales a month ago. The closing stock of cotton for the 2019-20 season is now pegged at 5.0 mln bales.

* Govt ups 2019-20 cotton output view to 36.05 mln bales vs 34.89 mln.

* USDA has pegged India's cotton acreage at 12.5 mln ha for the coming season, compared with 13.3 mln ha in 2019-20.  US Department of Agriculture expects global production of cotton to fall by 3% to 118.95 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) in the season starting August. The agency has pegged 2020-21 world consumption at 116.5 mln bales, up from 105.0 mln bales expected in pandemic-hit 2019-20. Global exports for the coming season is pegged at 42.9 mln bales, up from 40.1 mln bales estimated for 2019-20.Global ending stocks in 2020-21 was pegged at 99.4 mln bales, up for the second consecutive year. Output in the US is likely to fall to 19.5 mln bales in 2020-21, compared with the estimate of 19.9 mln bales in 2019-20.

* According to the initial planting survey report by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, acreage under cotton is seen at 5.6 mln ha. The largest increase in sowing area is expected in Texas. National Agricultural Statistics Service is the statistical branch of the USDA.

 

OTHERS

* Madhya Pradesh has extended the procurement period for chana, masur and mustard harvested in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) to Jun 10 from May 30 as the buying so far has been dismal.

* Government has purchased 6.73 lakh MT Chana under PSS Rabi-2020 as of 21st May2020. Out of the total, maximum has been purchased in Rajasthan-153452.41MT, followed by Andhra Pradesh-127915.1 MT, Karnataka-97858.32 MT, Maharashtra-95191.24 MT, Madhya Pradesh-78294 MT, Gujarat-62903.85 MT, Telangana-47600 MT, Uttar Pradesh-5651.73 MT and Harayan-4546 MT.

* Gujarat State Cooperation Marketing Federation Ltd ended procurement of chana at 35 of the 96 centres, as it achieved its target of procuring 25% of the total produce, according to the federation's chairman Dilip Sanghani. The federation have procured about 62,000 tn of chana out of 112,000 tn planned for this year.

* The Rajasthan State Co-operative Marketing Federation has procured 264,505 tn mustard and chana from 104,467 farmers at the minimum support price for 12.3 bln rupees, the government said in a press release.

* Government cuts 2019-20 chana output view to 10.9 million tons from 11.2 million tons.

* The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange has extended the event-based additional surveillance margin of 5% on guar gum contracts till Jun 10, the bourse said in a circular.

* As per trade sources, export of guar split has declined in the month of February-20. Exports in the month of February-20 are lower by around 40% compared to previous month. India exported around 2020 tonnes of guar split in the month of February-20.

* ICEX June rubber futures ended up on Friday supported by positive cues from the overseas market and on expectation of improvement in local demand with lockdown ruled being relaxed.

* The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries has cut its estimate for production of natural rubber in 2020 further to 13.1 mln tn from 13.4 mln tn pegged a month ago. At 13.1 mln tn, the output is seen 4.7% lower on year. The association has also reduced its estimate for global natural rubber consumption to 12.9 mln tn compared with 13.0 mln tn pegged earlier. At 12.9 mln tn, the demand for natural rubber is seen 6% lower on year. The outlook for the global demand has been revised downward as the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown in many countries are seen hitting demand for the commodity, the association said.

* The Directorate General of Trade Remedies has recommended provisionally raising import duty on polybutadine or synthetic rubber from South Korea to those imported from other countries, according to reports. Currently, the basic customs duty on the product is 10%, but imports from South Korea attract concessional duty under the pact. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies has suggested provisional safeguard duties for 200 days, by when it will come up with its final report.

 

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